FanDuel's main slate Tuesday features 11 games and gets underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Only six of our 22 starting arms are priced up, but there appear to be some juicy matchups amongst those that merit paying for.
Rain needs to be monitored in Denver in what's the slate's most intriguing games as we'd always target Coors Field, but the Marlins are in town. That game still carries the slate's highest run expectancy at 10.0, with Giants - Diamondbacks and Yankees - Twins our next highest spots at 9.0. The Brewers (-270) are the slate's largest favorite.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. LAA ($10,000): I'm not sure how you can fade Peralta, particularly in cash lineups. He gave up five runs in his last start and still returned a reasonable 2.7x, and prior to that, he had a six-start run where he allowed one run across 33 innings. The Angels fan at a 26.8 percent clip off righties, giving Peralta 4x potential even if he doesn't work long enough for a quality start.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. SF ($8,100): Rodriguez profiles as a volatile GPP option. He's earned three straight wins and quality starts with a 37 FDP floor, which works well at this price. The Giants, who he faced in his last outing and struck out six in 6.1 scoreless innings, have a 24.8 percent K rate against lefties and a woeful 78 wRC+.
Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. PHI ($7,700): FanDuel isn't allowing us to consider Ohtani as a hitter Tuesday, but he's priced low enough to consider him on the mound. It's simply a play on strikeout potential as we know the innings will be capped, and it's obviously not an elite matchup against a strong Phillies' offense. But he's returned around a 3x or better line in four of his last five starts despite going five innings just once. He clearly has a higher ceiling and safer floor than anyone else in this price tier.
Top Targets
We'd normally target Jackson Chourio ($3,500) more confidently against lefties, but he's too hot to ignore Tuesday, having 10 hits and six RBI in his last seven games. Angels starter Caden Dana, in a small sample, is allowing a .489 wOBA and 1.179 OPS to righties.
The Giants will apparently use Carson Seymour to open Tuesday's game, and while he's unlikely to last long, it's a great spot to target the top of the Diamondbacks order. Seymore is allowing a .406 wOBA and and .945 OPS to lefties; Arizona is likely to get off to a fast start. Corbin Carroll ($4,100) has scored in four straight and has walked seven times in his last five. Geraldo Perdomo ($3,900) has 10 hits and six RBI in his last six games, and Ketel Marte ($3,700) could be overlooked given sliding upside of late. Build elsewhere and these three are likely too expensive to stack, but one or two pieces to roundout your construction is prudent.
Bargain Bats
Connor Norby ($2,900) makes for a cheap entry into Coors Field. He's fresh off the IL, so it's anyone's guess on his timing, but had two doubles and five RBI in five games prior to that stint. His splits off lefties are woeful, but we want to target righties against Kyle Freeland, as he's allowing a .389 wOBA to them at home.
Baltimore's Dean Kremer has been a roller coaster all year, and has allowed 13 runs across his last 11.0 innings. His .357 wOBA allowed to lefties on the road is his highest split. Colson Montgomery ($3,200) hasn't homered in 11 days, but has a 137 wRC+ and .336 ISO off right-handers, suggesting an upside play.
Bryce Eldridge ($2,000) remains minimally priced after his 0-for-3 debut. The LvL matchup with Rodriguez is surprisingly favorable, as Rodriguez is allowing a .413 wOBA and .990 OPS to same-handed bats at home.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Zebby Matthews (Twins): Jazz Chisholm ($3,800), Cody Bellinger ($3,300), Ben Rice ($3,100)
With no Ohtani hitting option, it makes plenty of sense to just pay for Aaron Judge ($4,800) and move on, but the Twins walked him three times Monday and could again pitch around him. Matthews has been better at home, but overall remains more vulnerable to left-handed bats, and we can stack three lefties around Judge here for a fair price. It's boom or bust here; Chisholm is 0-for-8 in his last two but was 7-for-13 in his prior three, Bellinger had eight hits across six games prior to his current 0-for-8 skid, and Rice has six hits across his last four starts.
Mariners vs. Michael Wacha (Royals): Eugenio Suarez ($3,500), Randy Arozarena ($3,500), J.P. Crawford ($2,800)
Wacha is coming off of the concussion IL, so his workload could be capped, a less than ideal set up for what is largely a BvP stack, but the numbers are strong enough to put them out there and let you deceide. Suarez has destroyed Wacha, going 17-for-38 (.447) with two homers and a 1.184 OPS. Arozarena is 4-for-19 (.211) but three of those hits have left the yard and he has 11 hits in his last nine. Crawford helps save us some money, is 7-for-17 (.412) off Wacha and has four two-hit games in his last six.
