This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Opening Day
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Season 1-7 (-6.20 units)
Opening Day 2025 is here, and we get a huge slate of action with 14 games on Thursday. A few things to consider early on is the weather (temperatures) and short leashes on starting pitching.
A quick glance at the slate and the first thing that jumped out to me is we already have 4 games with a run total of 6.5 (this changed to 2 games on Thursday). I can not remember seeing this ever which tells us that oddsmakers are definitely factoring the weather into these lines immediately.
With everyone's "ace" going on opening day, we will see lower totals but also pretty close money lines, which will have me looking at team totals, F3, and F5 more often instead of full games, straight sides, or totals.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals Picks
Opening day is tough because everyone's "ace" is going, but I think we have some huge value on the Royals in this spot. The Royals were the surprise team of 2024 and they were beasts at home in Kaufmann Stadium (+0.41 runs per game at home). It did not take me very long to see this after the first couple weeks of the season and I started to look at them for every home game, especially on their team totals.
That is where I like them with Cole Ragans against Tanner Bibee as the Guardians were a much different team on the road versus at home a year ago (-0.64 runs per game on the road). We also have some weather factors in play with wind (15-18 mph blowing out) and very warm temperatures (75-77 degrees).
My AL MVP Pick is Bobby Witt Jr. and I think he gets off to a hot start Thursday along with several other Royals bats.
MLB Best Bet: Royals OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -127)
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Picks
Jose Berrios has been a stud at home going 8-2 SU in his last 10 as a favorite while Zach Eflin is a terrrible pitcher on the road. The Jays are being slept on a bit here while the Orioles are down Gunnar Henderson, who is a key piece of this team.
MLB Best Bet: Jays ML for 1 unit (Caesars -115)
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Picks
Two aces and two lineups that lack much power all equal an UNDER play for me, especially in a pitcher's park. Paul Skenes against Sandy Alcantara should be fun and post a ton of zeros on the scoreboard.
Skenes allowed just 9 runs the first time through the batting order in 23 starts (0.39) and Alcantara allowed 23 runs in 28 starts (0.79) first time through the batting order in 2023 for a combined 1.18 runs. That is against the entire league, now add in two of the weakest offenses in an extreme pitchers park. This could very easily be a 1-0 or 0-0 game after 3 and 5 innings.
MLB Best Bet: Pirates/Marlins UNDER 1.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Royals OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -127)
- Jays ML for 1 unit (Caesars -115)
- Pirates/Marlins UNDER 1.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- BONUS 3 TEAM PARLAY - Athletics/Nationals/Padres ML for 0.25 unit to win 2.92 (DraftKings +1068)
