This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 7-1 +15.28
Season 23-18 +14.49
I wrote about how humbling the "point spread" can be and you can go 7-1 one day and 1-7 the next. The key is all about the units that you wager and how to gain profit. I started adding a 4 team parlay to my picks and with only a very small unit play but a huge payoff. The parlay hit in my last article and overall put me in a good position for the season so far.
The trends I have been playing are looking for value on run lines and team totals that will go under. The unders continue to hit at a very high level even with sportsbooks adjusting their numbers downward.
San Diego Padres 
vs. Cincinnati Reds 
6:40 pm EDT
Joe Musgrove vs. Reiver Sanmartin
I have been betting against the Reds any way possible this year and I will continue until the odds just become too pricey. Especially when the starting pitching matchup is so extremely in favor of the Padres and the Reds are still dealing with injuries in the hitting department.
The Reds broke an 11-game losing streak on Sunday with a 4-1 win over the Cardinals and have scored 3 runs or less in their last 10 out of 11 games.
MLB Best Bets for Padres-Reds
BET 1 – Padres -1.5 runs (+112 FanDuel) for 1 RW buck
BET 2 – Reds under 2.5 runs (+120 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck
Mariners 
vs. Rays 
6:40 pm EDT
Logan Gilbert vs. Josh Fleming
Last year I rode Logan Webb and it looks like this year I will be riding with another Logan, Logan Gilbert, who has been dominant in his first three starts, ranking as a top 20 starting pitcher. The Rays will be going with their opener strategy here at home and we know that both teams play in pitchers' parks. With home runs being suppressed I really look for an extremely low-scoring game today, but oddsmakers have dropped the total to 7.0 so there is not a lot of value left.
The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games and there is a huge edge in starting pitching and both bullpens are about even which has me leaning on the Mariners.
MLB Best Bets for Mariners-Rays
BET – Mariners to win for 1 RW buck (+115 BetMGM)
Dodgers 
vs. Diamondbacks 
9:40 pm EDT
The Dodgers have the best run differential in baseball at +48 and are going against the Diamondbacks who are 26th at -22. The under is 13-4 in D-Backs games as their pitching has been decent. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 12-4 and are also 12-4 vs. the run line (-1.5). Another important factor in run line success is the strength of a bullpen and the Dodgers rank #2 in WAR.
MLB Best Bet for Dodgers-Diamondbacks
BET – Dodgers -1.5 runs (-120 FanDuel) for 1.2 RW buck
Oakland Athletics 
vs. Giants 
9:45 pm EDT
Daulton Jefferies vs. Carlos Rodon
There has been huge line moves in this game on the Giants and the under. The Giants opened -210 and have climbed to -270 putting the side out of reach. I don't like laying -1.5 runs on the Giants when their totals start to get in the 6 to 7 run range. So I will look at an under on the A's as their lineup is still in flux from COVID. Rodon's strikeout prop is a whopping 8.5, so no value there but I am looking at his earned runs prop as a play especially in this park.
MLB Best Bets for Athletics-Giants
BET – Carlos Rodon under 1.5 earned runs (-145 BetMGM) for 1.45 RW buck
BET – Giants and under 7.5 runs (+135 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck
MLB PARLAY PICKS FOR TUESDAY: Four-game parlay (FanDuel)
Padres -1.5, Dodgers -1.5, Mariners F5, Giants
For 0.1 RW buck to win 9.4
