Oak's Corner: Around the League

I was lucky enough to win tickets to the Masters through their lottery process and attended the tournament for the first time this week (hence the reason for this article coming out later than usual), and while I was in Georgia, I figured I had to watch a Braves game at their new stadium. I'm a big fan of seeing different baseball stadiums around the country and have seen games in 35 of them, including 24 of the current ones. Every time I get close to all 30, a couple new ones get built and I have to find a way to end up in those cities during baseball season. I make a lot of work trips and do my best to get to games in those cities when I can.

When talking about travel and baseball, people often ask me about my favorite stadiums, so I decided to mention my top five quickly before we jump into the fantasy stuff this week. A stadium list is always very personable, and I think with whom you attend a game and the result of the game impacts how you rank a stadium. I'd love to hear from you in the comments what your top choices are. By the way, SunTrust does not make my top five, but I really enjoyed my evening (good company helped) there and the surrounding restaurant/bar/hang out area right outside the stadium is fantastic.

1) PNC Park. When my wife was pregnant, we did a quick baseball tour of the East Coast where we saw three games in different stadiums and also spent a day in Cooperstown, NY at the Hall of Fame. I'm extremely partial to downtown parks in an area where you can get drinks or food and then walk into the stadium or have places to hang out after the game. PNC has breathtaking views from many different areas and I love how it is built right on the river. They just got everything right with this yard.

2) Wrigley Field. You won't get the amenities of the newer parks of course, but this place just feels special when you walk in and see all the views you grew up watching on WGN. I went to Wrigley for the first time with two of my best friends and we did the whole Wrigleyville experience topped by a night at the Cubby Bear, and it will always be a special memory for me. If you haven't been to Wrigley, make it happen, as soon as possible.

3) Oracle Park (or whatever it is called these days). I hate that the Giants got so much right with this park while the A's languish in the Coliseum, but I have to admit that it's just about perfect. Great views, great beer and food, and plenty of options nearby to hang out. It's just a really great place, and McCovey Cove and the splash hits were a genius addition.

4) Fenway Park. The seats aren't comfortable, and the site lines and obstructed views can be an issue, but walking into Fenway is always special. Seeing the wall in person is a bit surreal after years of it on TV, and there are about 100 different memories you think of when you look at different parts of the park. The surrounding area is fantastic on game day, although I recommend the Bleacher Bar (where you can actually look into the field while at the urinal) over the more popular Cask and Flagon.

5) Target Field. This is another fantastic downtown ballpark where you can easily walk to many eating option and it feels extremely intimate. It was built on a small footprint in terms of baseball stadiums and every part of it was well done. The old school logo of the two players Minnie and Paul shaking hands over the Mississippi River that lights up when a Twin homers in center field was the perfect final touch.

Honorable mentions: Safeco Park (now T-Mobile), Petco Park and Camden Yards with old Yankee Stadium as my favorite stadium of the ones I attended that are no longer in existence.

The Week That Was

Pete Alonso has started the season red hot, and I witnessed the absolute laser (later reported to be among the top three hardest hit balls in the last five years) he hit on Thursday night off the Braves. After pounding 38 homers in the minors in 2018, Alonso won a job out of camp and has done nothing but hit in his first couple of Major League weeks. He has already mashed six homers and driven in 17 runs in only 51 plate appearances. His .911 slugging percentage is second in baseball to someone named Mike Trout and he actually barely tops Trout in ISO to lead all of baseball.

It is always fun to get excited about prospects who hit right away, but there are also some early concerns with Alonso, particularly his 31.4 percent strikeout rate. In addition, his .378 batting average is clearly assisted by an absurd .478 BABIP so far. On the flip side, Alonso obviously hits the ball hard with a 58.6 percent hard hit rate and has always hit a lot of fly balls in the minors. It can sometimes be tough to sell high this early in the season, as owners are usually wary of trading into a hot start, but with hyped prospects, it can sometimes be done, as many people want to own the shiny (and mashing) new toy. I'd certainly check the current price of Alonso in your league, as this is a perfect time to sell him before the inevitable slump comes as the leagues adjusts to him. I think Alonso will hit plenty of homers, but there are going to be some extended hiccups as pitchers get more tape on him and exploit the holes in his swing before he then is able to adjust back.

Aaron Judge generated a lot of draft buzz over the final month of the offseason as he looked good in spring and his ADP rose as a result, with some leagues seeing him move into the top half of the first round. He has already homered three times, but there are some concerns, although many may be a result of the insane level of injuries the Yankees have faced. Judge is walking at an 18.3 percent clip, good for 10th best in baseball, but his already high strikeout rate has risen even more to 33.3 percent. With Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton and now Gary Sanchez on the DL, the pitches that other teams need to give Judge to hit are obviously going to be fewer, so it follows that he will walk more, but also strike out more as he gets frustrated and expands his zone on occasion.

Judge is still absolutely smoking the ball as usual with a 46.4 percent hard hit rate, but he hasn't started to elevate the ball yet with only 25 percent fly balls. The fly ball drop isn't anything to get concerned about after only two weeks of at-bats, but it bears watching as he did drop from 43.2 to 35 percent from 2017 to 2018, which may help his batting average a bit, but his extreme home run upside does get capped if he doesn't revert to fly ball numbers more in the 2017 range. After taking a look at Judge, I'm not even a little concerned yet, but it would sure be nice to get some of his friends back in the lineup, and I'll monitor both the strikeout and fly ball rates over the next couple of weeks.

I have an admitted bias for Josh Donaldson, as I loved him during his years in Oakland and I really liked him with his ADP near 100 this March. My issue with Donaldson was of course his health, as he only played in 165 games over the last two seasons, but I thought he absolutely would be productive when he was healthy. Once he was finally healthy last year, he posted a .920 OPS with the Indians, however, that was only over 16 games. So far in 2019, Donaldson has had an incredibly slow start, hitting .213 through his first 55 plate appearances.

My biggest concern with him now is his complete lack of any power, as he had only one extra base hit in the first 10 games, a pretty big reason why he has yet to drive in a run as a member of the Braves, but he does have a double in each of the past three games. In the small sample to begin the season, Donaldson has struck out in 25.5 percent of the time, a significant jump from his prime years in Oakland and Toronto. On the plus side, he's still walking at a 15.7 percent clip and when he makes contact, he is doing so with a monster 55.9 percent hard hit rate. I have watched a lot of his at bats, and it looks to me like he is pressing and getting caught guessing a lot as he tries to make his mark with his new team in one at bat. I'm still a believer in his talent, and while one has to acknowledge the injury risk, I think he will productive once he settles into his new surroundings and I'd be aggressively persuing him in a trade league, looking to obtain him at a slight discount from draft day while you still can.

FAAB Feelings

Tyler Mahle – Mahle has started to pique the interest of fantasy owners by allowing only one earned run over his first two starts. He has thrown 11 innings over those first two starts, striking out 12 batters while walking four, but of course, it has to be noted one of those starts was against the Marlins. Mahle was very effective in the minors in 2017 and 2018, which sparked some FAAB interest last year upon his callup to the Reds. He had significant struggles in his 112 innings with the Reds last year, posting a 4.98 ERA and walking 4.26 batters per nine. The walks were surprising, as he exhibited impeccable control in the minors, but that does happen to a lot of young pitchers when they start facing major league hitters, so I'll assume the walks will come down during his second tour.

The biggest concern that really sticks out to me regarding his 2018 innings is actually not the walks, but the 41.5 percent hard hit rate, which is scary considering the stadium in which he will pitch half his games. Mahle will be a popular pick-up again this week, as he is scheduled to make two starts, and while he gets to pitch outside of Cincinnati, they are on the road against two good teams in the Padres and Dodgers, with the Dodgers offense particularly frightening. In the current environment of offense we have seen the first two weeks of the season, finding good starters off the waiver wire will be challenging all season, so we have to at least consider almost anyone pitching well getting two starts. I'll bid on Mahle in 15-teamers, as whoever he replaces at the end of my rotation will likely be a middling option at best, but these two starts and his 2018 scare me enough that I'm going to let someone else take him in my 12-teaamers.

Alex Gordon – I promise I had Gordon's name in this section even before his monster Friday night when he collected four hits, including a first inning bomb off Carlos Carrasco. Gordon has started off the season exceptionally well, hitting .390 with three homers, 12 runs and 13 RBI. He has been making an impressive amount of contact with only five strikeouts so far. After brutal back to back seasons in 2016 and 2017, Gordon bounced back a bit in 2018 with a .245 average and was able to corral his strikeout rate a bit as it has spun really out of control in 2016 to 29.2%.

Despite some very solid years and a lot of good outfield defense, Gordon never quite reached the upside that was projected for him as the second overall in the 2005 draft. The appeal (ok, slight appeal) in deeper leagues comes from the guaranteed at bats in a great spot in the lineup. The Royals offense lacks in many ways, but hitting third behind Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi should give him some solid RBI opportunities as those guys tend to find their way into scoring position when they do get on base and they can also score from anywhere with their speed. The ceiling on Gordon is limited, but his 37.9% hard hit rate from 2018 is a solid number and if can hit a few more fly balls, something like 18 homers with solid counting stats is possible and a nice add for outfield depth and he is only owned un 37% of NFBC 12-team leagues.

Mike Soroka – With all the intriguing young Braves arms, it can be easy to forget about Soroka, particularly when he was passed up in spring training as he worked himself back from some shoulder issues. He was a very popular (and expensive) free agent add in 2018 when he was called up, but those dollars quickly went to waste as he was only able to make five big league starts before succumbing to a shoulder injury. He is not a huge strikeout guy but has exhibited exceptional control in the minors, and when I watched him last year, he felt like a guy who knew how to use that control to get guys out.

Soroka made his minor league debut earlier this week with strong results, striking out seven batters over five hitless innings. Mike Foltynewicz is set to return from injury this weekend to fill one more spot in that Braves rotation, but Bryse Wilson has already been sent down, and Kyle Wright pitched poorly again on Friday. Soroka or Touki Toussaint could be one of the next young guys to get the call when the Braves need a starter. We don't know how healthy Folty will look, and even if he looks good to go, the Braves are trying to compete, and the leash on Sean Newcomb may be short if he continues to allow free passes. While I don't think they would take Julio Teheran out of the rotation, it has been a rough start to the season. Even with healthy vets, the Braves need one of their spots to be filled by a youngster, and Wright could soon by replaced by Soroka or Toussaint. If Soroka is available in your league, I think a small bid this week could pay off quickly, as the bidding will heat up the second he is called up.

A Closer Look

There are not really any closers on whom I want to this week, but I want to make a note on the current state of offense in the league. Chris Liss has pointed out on RotoWire and Twitter how difficult streaming starting pitchers was in 2017 with that season's increased offense, which increased the value of those effective, high strikeout setup relievers. Filling those eighth and ninth pitching spots will be very difficult all summer if these offensive numbers are sustained, and finding effective relievers to protect your ratios while also giving you punchouts will be very valuable. Relievers can be volatile year over year, and April is the time to watch the roles and strikeout numbers of setup relivers to try and identify those breakout relievers for 2019. Be aggressive in grabbing one or two of those who appear to be emerging, as you may really thankful you did come the heat of the summer.

Series of the Weekend

Due to me dropping this article later than usual and going long, I'm not break down a weekend series. It would have been the Marin-Astros series, as it will be fascinating to see if this monster start for the Mariners and especially their offense is built on weak opponents or if they are able to get to Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole this weekend.

Thanks as always for reading, and I'll be back on a regular schedule next week.