Top MLB Betting Picks for August 22: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 (+0.70 units)
Season 115-121-2 (-9.40 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Friday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Home Favorites - Mariners -215 vs Athletics, Pirates -185 vs Rockies, Phillies -185 vs Nationals, Yankees -180 vs Red Sox
Road Favorites - Blue Jays -160 at Marlins
Totals - 6 games with 9.5 totals
Rangers/Guardians 7.5, Dodgers/Padres 7.5, Athletics/Mariners 7.5
Line Movement - Rockies -15, Phillies -18, Guardians -34
5 games have seen their run totals move +0.5 vs. only 1 game moving -0.5 runs
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Insights
Max Fried is a -180 home favorite tonight, but it has been the tale of two seasons with him.
March 29 to June 25 - 1.92 ERA, 0.94 WHIP (17 starts)
July 1 to August 22 - 6.80 ERA, 1.59 WHIP (8 starts)
This is also not a situation where 1 or 2 starts have blown up Fried's numbers either. He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in all 8 starts with his walks and homers allowed significantly up.
I also think the Red Sox are a great play on the ML with Brayan Bello as a road dog. He has really developed into a solid number two starting pitcher. While the strikeout numbers are low, he limits baserunners with a low walk and contact rate.
The Red Sox took game 1 in this series with a 9th inning homer by Roman Anthony, but the Yankees had 4 errors and their bullpen looked very shaky. I do expect another close game tonight, but with the Red Sox getting to Fried.
Best Bet: Red Sox OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110); Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +160)
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Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
I have a few rules on laying -1.5 runs and I usually shy away from low totals (this game is 7.5) and pitchers' parks. But in this case Nathan Eovaldi has been so good this year.
Eovaldi has a microscopic 1.60 ERA with 7 wins in those 8 starts. Slade Cecconi has 8 starts under his belt with a 5.25 ERA with a low K rate and high HR rate. Those are a combination for disaster.
Both teams are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and fading out of the American League playoff hunt, but the gap between starting pitchers is why I am willing to lay the -1.5 runs in this spot.
Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +145)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Best Bets and Predictions
Jose Quintana continues to defy logic and time as he is a key pitcher in the Brewers staff. His numbers are not great, but the Brewers offense can mask a lot of issues. This game really comes down to Carson Whisenhunt who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate with a 5.02 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, and 3.14 HR/9.
I usually do not lay -1.5 runs in extreme pitchers' parks, but the Brewers are a freight train right now and the Giants are really scuffling on offense especially at home (2.5 runs in last 10 home games). I have this game projected at 5-2.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +126)
MLB Best Bets
- Red Sox OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +160)
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +145)
- Brewers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +126)
