Top MLB Betting Picks for August 26: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-3 (-1.40 units)
Season 116-124-2 (-10.80 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Home Favorites - Astros -325 vs Rockies, Yankees -185 vs Nationals, Dodgers -185 vs Reds
Road Favorites - Cubs -140 at Giants, Tigers -135 at Athletics
Totals - Tigers/Athletics 10.5/11.0, Cubs/Giants 7.5
Line Movement - Rockies -35
5 games have seen their totals rise 0.5 runs
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Boston Red Sox vs Balitmore Orioles Betting Insights
Red Sox RHP Lucas Giolito has had an interesting season, to say the least, with extreme home/road splits at times, along with struggling early and really pitching well recently.
Giolito struggled until June 4th when he had a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Around this time a couple of things happened. The Red Sox traded Rafael Devers and the staff went to pitching coach Andrew Bailey with a request to throw more fastballs. This meeting with Bailey was huge and part of the Red Sox turnaround to the 2025 season.
Giolito's numbers since June 10th are a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, but the home numbers are mind blowing with a 0.54 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. So while his road numbers are still not great, he has faced some big offenses in that stretch as well.
Orioles RHP Kyle Bradish is making his first start since June 2024. I would expect him to have a short leash, and this will end up being a battle of the bullpens in which the Red Sox have a significant edge.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML - 1 unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
For the past five years, Rangers LHP Patrick Corbin has one of the highest ERAs and WHIPs for starting pitchers. But for the first two months of 2025, it was actually serviceable as seen by the stats below.
April 8 - June 12 - 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
June 18 - August 25 - 5.72 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
But, the bottom is falling out on Corbin again, and Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi is also vulnerable to giving up a lot of runs. In two starts against the Rangers this season, he has allowed eight runs in just 10.1 innings.
The trends in this series are heavily towards the Over, with Monday night being the first Under in seven games. I would also note the starting pitchers being Jose Soriano and Jacob deGrom driving that total down in the series opener. I think we get back to the higher-scoring game Tuesday night.
Best Bet: Angels ML - 1 unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook); Angels/Rangers OVER 8.5 runs (at BetMGM -115)
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San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Best Bets and Predictions
This is the best pitching matchup on the slate with Padres RHP Dylan Cease against Mariners RHP Luis Castillo. Cease can be a frustrating pitcher with the amount of walks he issues, but in this ball park, I will take UNDER for total runs all day long in a matchup like this.
Castillo been better in Seattle, versus on the road, which is the case for most of the Mariners' pitchers. His home/road splits are very drastic with a 2.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home versus a 5.04 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road.
There are some conflicting trends on the total side with the UNDER 5-2 in the Padres last seven road games, but the OVER is 5-2 in Seattle's last seven. The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 games between both teams. The strength of the Padres bullpen also helps in taking a full game under.
Best Bet: Padres/Mariners UNDER 8 runs - 1 unit (-110 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets
- Red Sox ML - 1 unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Angels ML - 1 unit (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Angels/Rangers Over 8.5 - 1 unit (-115 at BetMGM)
- Padres/Mariners UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (-110 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
