Fall is here. Amid the pumpkin spice and the colorful leaves, we've still got some regular-season baseball. This is the final Saturday of September, and there are eight MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. Autumn brings you sweater weather, and I bring you these DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. LAA ($44): Ryan is usually happy to take the mound in Minnesota with a 2.85 home ERA. "Los Angeles" (if you have ever driven from LA to Anaheim, you know the dubiousness of the Angels' home declaration) ranks 25th in runs scored and carries a sub-.300 team OBP.
Logan Gilbert, SEA at KC ($42): Gilbert is the inverse of Ryan, but in a good way given the location of this game. Luis Castillo was brought in to shore up the Mariners' rotation, but Gilbert is his equal with a 3.13 ERA in his sophomore campaign, including a 2.86 at home. The Royals, meanwhile, sit 24th in offense.
Davis Martin, CWS vs. DET ($29): Popping in and out of the rotation, Martin has posted a 3.78 ERA as a rookie. While he's struggled at home so far, it's only 16.2 innings and hardly a relevant sample size. The Tigers provide data from a nearly-full season and are last in runs scored and OPS. This is all about the matchup.
Top Targets
The first of two big-time free agent shortstops to sign this offseason is primed for success Saturday. That would be Carlos Correa ($21), who's recorded a .901 OPS at home in 2022 and a .942 versus lefties. Reid Detmers is a southpaw who hasn't allowed a lot of home runs, but enters with a 3.99 FIP.
In his first year as a Ranger, Corey Seager ($18) is racking up homers with a personal-best of 32. The former Dodger has also produced a .918 OPS in his new home park. In his debut season as a full-time starter, Cal Quantrill has posted a 4.21 FIP and his strikeout rate has dipped to 6.17 per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
In the last three weeks, Carlos Santana ($16) has managed an .852 OPS. He's a switch hitter, but has an .808 OPS against southpaws. Kris Bubic has given up 1.44 home runs per nine innings. Santana may actually want to face Bubic from the left side of the plate since the starter has actually let fellow lefties hit .314 against.
He's not always in the lineup, but I think Gavin Sheets ($11) will get a shot Saturday with a .795 career OPS versus righties and a .976 at home. Drew Hutchison has a 6.12 ERA over his last five starts and lefties have gone .298 against this year.
Stacks to Consider
Padres at Rockies (Chad Kuhl): Manny Machado ($23), Juan Soto ($18), Jake Cronenworth ($15)
Remember when Kuhl had that inexplicable complete-game shutout versus the Dodgers? Well, he's struggled to an 8.57 ERA in 11 starts since having allowed 17 home runs across 50.2 innings. That's brutal, Coors Field is a tough place to pitch, and the Padres are primed to take advantage.
Machado has compiled a 30-homer season thanks in part to sending six deep the last three weeks. He also boasts a .932 OPS versus righties and Kuhl has allowed a .301 average to right-handed batters. Soto is a southpaw, but one with an 1.071 OPS against righties the last couple campaigns. Even in the worst season of his career, he still managed a .404 OPS and 26 homers. Since 2020, Cronenworth has registered a .793 OPS when facing righties like Kuhl. And this year, he's also produced a .770 OPS on the road.
Guardians at Rangers (Glenn Otto): Jose Ramirez ($20), Josh Naylor ($15), Oscar Gonzalez ($15)
Otto has actually been worse than last season when he posted a 9.26 ERA. That was in only six starts where he also managed a 3.16 FIP. In 24 starts this year, he's dropped to a 5.22 FIP and has seen his strikeout rate shrink and his homer rate soar. Otto also maintains a 6.10 ERA at home. A lot of the key numbers say this is a great spot for the Rangers.
Ramirez doesn't exactly need the help to produce, but this matchup is ideal for him with a .917 OPS against righties and a .935 on the road. Naylor is in a similar situation to Ramirez, but just one notch down with an .854 OPS versus right-handers and an .864 on the road. Gonzalez has recorded an .864 OPS against righties the last three weeks. Otto may also be a righty, but same-handed bats have gone .259.
Astros at Orioles (Spenser Watkins): Yordan Alvarez ($25), Kyle Tucker ($20), Jeremy Pena ($12)
With Tyler Wells hitting the IL, Watkins has been called up. That gives the Astros a chance to face a pitcher with a career 5.73 ERA. Watkins has also struck out a mere 5.48 batters per nine innings, so expect a lot of contact from Houston.
Alvarez has starred with an OPS over 1.000 versus both righties and on the road. He's also scorching hot with a 1.179 mark the last three weeks. Tucker is going to outdo all his counting stats from last season since he's already at 29 homers, 22 stolen bases, and 102 RBI. And since 2020, he's produced an .896 OPS versus right handers. The rookie shortstop Pena has picked it back up and now has 19 homers and 11 steals. He may be a righty, but righties have hit .288 versus Watkins.
