This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Houston at Sacramento (-6) (o/u 238)
Utah (-3.5) at Denver (o/u 223.5)
Golden State at Minnesota (-4)
This slate is pretty simple to break down on a general level. The Rockets-Kings matchup is the clear option to target, as both teams play at a fast pace and little defense. The rest of the teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating, so value doesn't necessarily jump out. There aren't many star players, so the most common builds will likely be balanced rather than a stars-and-scrubs approach.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Richaun Holmes, SAC (conditioning): Questionable
Holmes cleared COVID-19 protocols Tuesday, but he's been held out for conditioning purposes to this point. If he returns today, he could be on a minutes limit.
Damian Jones, SAC (conditioning): Questionable
Similarly to Holmes, Jones has also cleared COVID-19 protocols but now has to get his conditioning back to retake the court.
Udoka Azubuike, UTA (conditioning): Questionable
Azubuike isn't a regular in the rotation, though he could see some backup minutes at center with Hassan Whiteside in COVID-19 protocols.
Austin Rivers, DEN (Illness)
Rivers was held out Saturday due to a non-COVID-19 illness. His formal designation hasn't been updated, but his situation will be one to monitor throughout the day.
Gary Payton, GSW (back): Questionable
If Payton is medically cleared, he'll step into a big role with Stephen Curry already ruled out.
Jaylen Nowell, MIN (ankle): Questionable
Nowell is officially questionable, but coach Chris Finch said he expects him to be available. He should get backup minutes at point guard, but isn't likely to see a major role with both Patrick Beverley and D'Angelo Russell healthy.
Leandro Bolmaro, MIN (COVID-19 protocols)
Bolmaro entered COVID-19 protocols on Jan. 6, so he's eligible to return. But even if he returns – which doesn't seem likely – it won't have much effect on the slate.
Other Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside, UTA (COVID-19 protocols): Out
JaMychal Green, DEN (COVID-19 protocols): Out
Stephen Curry, GSW (hand): Out
Draymond Green, GSW (calf): Out
Jordan McLaughlin, MIN (COVID-19 protocols): Out
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic ($12,000) is always in play, but tonight isn't the best spot for him as he'll draw a matchup against Rudy Gobert and a Jazz defense which ranks sixth in defensive rating to opposing centers this season. The contest also features two teams in the bottom half of pace, so it doesn't set up to be the best offensive environment.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200) represents the next highest option at any position. The Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams as measured by defensive rating, though they will be without Draymond Green and Stephen Curry. Even so, I'd look to build my cash lineup in other ways.
De'Aaron Fox's value ($8,100) rose after a strong performance against Houston on Friday where he put up 49.5 DK points. The offense should be flowing again today (238.5 o/u), so Fox should be in a position to return value even at an increased salary.
Expected Chalk
Jokic is likely to also be a chalky option. Some additional players who should be popular on the slate include:
Gary Payton ($4,300) and Jordan Poole ($5,400) will both be in favorable spots to produce with Curry sidelined. Poole took advantage of a depleted Golden State backcourt in Friday's loss to the Bulls and should have enough of a role to return value again. Monitor the status of Payton prior to tip as well as he too offers the potential to both return value and be in many lineups.
Otto Porter ($5,400) also figures to be popular. Draymond Green will remain out and extra usage will open up in the absence of Curry. That will make Porter a strong value proposition, but not a sneaky one.
Jeff Green ($3,800) remains undervalued, particularly with JaMychal Green out. There's some risk in his skills profile, as he relies almost entirely on scoring for his fantasy production. Even so, Green's coming off a 29.3 DK-point performance and is likely to catch the eye of many.
Key Values
In addition to most of the chalk providing strong value, some other value options to consider include:
Houston-Sacramento will be one to target based on both teams' poor defensive play. Unfortunately, Sacramento's big-man situation is ambiguous. Marvin Bagley ($5,600) could emerge as a strong option because even if Holmes and Jones are both back, they could be on a minutes limit. This will be a situation to watch throughout the day, but Bagley will be a nice cash game option if both Holmes and Jones remain out. If one or both return, he could be more of a GPP option as a boom-bust play.
On the Houston side, Kevin Porter ($6,500) enters as the most attractive option. He should continue to serve as the primary offensive facilitator in a fast-paced matchup with not much defense on either side.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,600) is valued fairly aggressively, though his usage should increase with both Draymond Green and Curry sidelined. Minnesota is a middling defensive team, but the game should be played at a decent pace.
