This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
With just a five-game slate (one of which tipped off at 3:30 ET), and one mired by injuries at that, we'll abandon the normal format in lieu of simply focusing on a couple best bets. Of course with the ever-changing nature of the NBA heading into trade-deadline week, make sure to check if a spread has changed demonstrably. With so few NBA props truly representing any sort of value, don't hesitate to pivot to other options, especially with a certain tournament going on at the moment.
Jrue Holiday over 16.5 points (-113)
The Spurs opting to sit Dejoune Murray for rest purposes only makes me feel more confident in taking Jrue Holiday over 16.5 points. The Bucks are favored by 11 points and rightfully so, but a possible blowout doesn't effect Holiday in the same way it would Giannis Antetokounmpo, or even Khris Middleton. Milwaukee has slowly eased Holiday back into the lineup after a mult-week absence due to COVID-19 health and safety protocol, and I think the extended layoff might even give the 30-year-old a runway for more concentrated production if the game does get out of hand.
The Spurs allow the fourth-most points to opposing point guards and the second highest field-goal percentage to the aforementioned position, reinforcing the idea Holiday should be more of a nimble presence inside the arc Saturday. I'm also leaning towards the idea Antetokounmpo could miss his o/u of 29.5 points (under -103) assuming this game does get out of hand like Vegas expects, although Holiday's over is easily the more comfortable line.
LaMelo Ball over 17.5 points (-117)
The Clippers are favored by 9.5 in this one, so there's a possibility a blowout could limit the overall scoring potential of Ball and the Hornets.
But Reggie Jackson continues to be a sieve at point guard for the Clippers, and the Paul George/Kawhi Leonard combo will likely be distracted with Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier. Ball has been a bit inconsistent in the month of March, but the five-game stretch towards the end of February where the dynamic point guard averaged 23.4 points makes me feel more comfortable with this line. Give me over 17.5 points, especially if the Hornets can cover the spread.
