This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We're blessed with a seven-game slate Saturday, but the status of Joel Embiid (knee), and just the general awfulness of the Rockets, removed two of those contests from our prop-bet buffet as of this writing. There's actually a decent amount of points props to target, however, so let's dive into a couple of the options.
Points
It's more of a narrative-driven bet, but the Jazz are set to play their fourth game in five days and are favored by 12 points against the slumping Kings. It sure seems like Donovan Mitchell could be set up for an easy day after averaging 36.3 minutes in the last three contests. Yes, it hurts Jordan Clarkson (ankle) likely won't play, but I just can't imagine this game is competitive enough for Mitchell to hit over 30.5 points (under is -125), particularly because the o/u number is five points above his season average.
Sticking in the same game, it seems highly unlikely Buddy Hield will hit his over, so target under 15.5 points (-113). The Jazz play a defense that specifically denies the sharp-shooting capabilities of Hield, allowing the fewest three-point attempts and sixth-best percentage from deep (35.7 percent). Of course, the Oklahoma product shoots exclusively from deep so this might be one of those situations where the defensive metrics just can't accommodate for Hield's playstyle, but I'm going to put some faith in Utah's strengths.
Robert Covington has turned into a pet project of mine over the past couple weeks and I'm back again to target his over at 9.5 points (-113). It took a bit for the defensive specialist to get acclimated with Portland, but Covington has quietly re-asserted himself in the conversation among top 3-and-D forwards, averaging 12.5 points in the month of March, including shooting 51.3 percent from the field and 50.5 percent from deep. The Trail Blazers are favored by 11.5 in this contest so there's some risk the 30-year-old is removed early if/when Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum go off, but Covington did score 16 points the last time these two teams played and Portland won by 28 in that contest. Oh, and the Pistons allow the second-most points to opposing power forwards.
Over 11.5 points for Joe Harris (-125) sure seems in the realm of possibilities considering the sharpshooter has went over that total in three of the last four games. Ironically that one miss -- a 12-point win over a Hornets defense anemic to three-point defense -- gives me a bit of pause, but so long as James Harden (hamstring) is out, Harris is going to continue being a critical weapon with the majority of the Nets offense able to create defensive movement within the perimeter. Any sort of Lakers defensive metric doesn't take fully into account the absence of Anthony Davis (calf) and LeBron James (ankle), so I'll gladly take such a low figure for a guy like Harris who can hit the over in four shots.
Rebounds/Assists
The lack of prop bets just overall specifically cut into the rebound/assist options. The only one that really looked valuable was Darius Garland over 2.5 rebounds (-113). The Raptors allow a decent amount of rebounds to opposing backcourts and I think Kyle Lowry (foot) likely out only helps in that equation, along with the confirmed absence of Pascal Siakam (rest).
Garland is averaging 3.3 rebounds over the last six games so it's a small margin of error, but I'm relatively comfortable with this outcome hitting.
Best Bets
- Robert Covington over 9.5 points (-113)
- Buddy Hield under 15.5 points (-113)
- Darius Garland over 2.5 rebounds (-113)
