FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

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Published on January 22, 2022

The DFS landscape will be dominated by the NFL today, but the Association still has some games to play! Saturday's three-game slate will begin at 7:00 p.m. ET.

SLATE OVERVIEW

MIL (-9.5) vs. SAC O/U: 230.5

CLE (-12.5) vs. OKC O/U: 209.5

PHO (-12) vs. IND O/U: 217.5

The lines show potential blowout spots for all three games. There's merit to making some deep dives into rotations in anticipation of these lopsided matches, but it's important to not get too cute when looking for value in a player pool like this. For one, salaries are reasonable enough that fishing for bargains isn't necessary unless your lineups are really top-heavy. There are also a few game-time calls that can radically change the rotations of teams already and are instantly more reliable.

SAC Tyrese Haliburton (conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE

Haliburton is currently a game-time call. If he can't go, Buddy Hield ($5,800) is your primary pivot.

IND Domantas Sabonis (ankle) - OUT

IND Myles Turner (foot0 - OUT

IND Caris LeVert (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE

While we can pivot in Indiana's frontcourt, the guard situation is up in the air at the moment. Goga Bitadze ($6,000) and Torrey Craig ($5,900) will see significant production boosts, and if any of the guards miss, Lance Stephenson ($4,600) and Duane Washington ($4,000) will get the bulk of the work.

PHO Deandre Ayton (ankle) -OUT

I no longer have confidence in JaVale McGee after a poor outing last game, and it seems that he will split time with Bismack Biyombo in this scenario. It's probably best to leave this situation alone despite Indiana's frontcourt injury woes.

ELITE PLAYERS

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) holds the only five-figure salary on the slate, and the second-most expensive player trails him by a whopping $2,200. It's an excellent spot for Giannis despite the potential blowout risk, but the shortage of high-powered producers on this slate makes him popular as usual. Khris Middleton ($8,700) is notorious for sticking around during lopsided games, and although the chances of coming close to Giannis' total are slim, the point-per-dollar differential may allow Middleton to pay off relative to the production lost.

I have three excellent guard selections in the elite level, led by Darius Garland ($8,600), who has double-doubled in four of his last five outings and is producing monstrous assist totals during the run. De'Aaron Fox ($8,300) is ridden with variance as usual, but he's managed to put up some great scoring totals amid Haliburton's absence. Finally, I usually favor Chris Paul ($8,100) over Devin Booker ($9,200) after a rest day. He posted an excellent double-double on Thursday and looked very dialed in. I don't doubt a good day from Booker, but the salary is too high.

EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS

Jarrett Allen ($7,600) and Evan Mobley ($6,600), CLE vs. OKC

Due to injuries elsewhere, the combo of Allen and Mobley represents the strongest frontcourt on this slate. They are also in an exploitative spot against the Thunder, and both players have tremendous upside in this spot. The $1,000 pay differential keeps them from being interchangeable, but they have almost similar usage rates. Allen will be more popular and score more, but Mobley's salary holds the better value.

Bobby Portis, MIL ($6,300) vs. SAC

Portis played cleanup a lot last season, but his role has changed dramatically this year with a more prominent everyday role. Despite his increased usage, I like him as a candidate to stick around if this game gets out of hand. If we look at recent blowouts, he posted 20 against the Warriors and 25 against the Nets, so the proof for Portis in lopsided games is right there in the numbers.

Josh Giddey, OKC ($6,100) @ CLE

Giddey gets mentioned often in this column because the salary differential between him and Shai Gilegous-Alexander is usually quite high, and tonight is no exception. There is a $2,900 difference between them today, and I don't even need to crunch numbers to be confident of a favorable point-per-dollar differential between the two Thunder stars. The points lost by an SGA-to-Giddey switch won't come anywhere near the $2,900 it would have to pay. Another example of depressed value is Aaron Wiggins ($4,300). While his averages won't wow you, he only needs a little over 20 FP to pay off and could serve as a good tournament flier.

Rounding out the values today, here are some additional players to target:

Cameron Payne, PHO ($4,100)

Chris Duarte, IND ($6,700)

Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,000)

Isaac Okoro, CLE ($3,800)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.