FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a compact five-games slate on tap Sunday evening, with a couple of lopsided contests projected due to the fact the Eastern Conference's two worst teams are in action and the Spurs have three key starters resting. However, there are also a pair of particularly intriguing clashes on tap and a few projected totals north of 220. 

Slate Overview

Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5) at Detroit Pistons (O/U: 209.5 points) 

Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) (O/U: 227.5 points) 

Dallas Mavericks (-5) at Orlando Magic (O/U: 211.5 points) 

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns (-13) (O/U: 228.0 points) 

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves (-0.5) (O/U: 227.5 points) 

As alluded to, the Pistons, sporting the East's second-worst record, are significant home underdogs to the Cavaliers despite Cleveland missing Lauri Markkanen. The Bucks are somewhat larger favorites than might be expected against a red-hot Nuggets team that's won nine of 12, while the Mavericks, missing their own big man in Kristaps Porzingis, are arguably projected to pound the cellar-dwelling Magic by less than they normally night be. 

The biggest spread of the night is unsurprisingly attached to a Suns squad that gets to face a Spurs team missing Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl, and at home to boot. And finally, the most intriguing matchup of the night might well be the one with the tiniest spread – the Jazz, shockingly 2-10 in their last 12, look to snap a four-game skid in Minnesota. Oddsmakers appear to give them a very good chance of doing so, even with Rudy Gobert still out and Donovan Mitchell's availability in question. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section. 

Rudy Gobert, UTA (calf): OUT 

With Gobert out again, Hassan Whiteside should be in line for another start. 

Dejounte Murray, SAN (ankle): OUT 

With Murray sitting, Tre Jones and Lonnie Walker could be primary beneficiaries. 

Jakob Poeltl, SAN (back): OUT 

In Poeltl's absence, Jock Landale and Drew Eubanks are likely to see most of the minutes at center. 

Donovan Mitchell, UTA (concussion): QUESTIONABLE 

If Mitchell sits out another contest, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson should continue to see extra opportunity, while the remaining members of the starting five should continue to see elevated usage. 

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee): OUT 

Reggie Bullock should remain in the starting lineup at small forward in Porzingis' absence while Dorian Finney-Smith slides over to the four. 

D'Angelo Russell, MIN (leg): QUESTIONABLE 

If Russell were to sit out with the shin contusion he suffered in Thursday's loss to the Warriors, Jaylen Nowell should draw another start. 

Other notable injuries: 

Derrick White, SAN (rest): OUT 

Lauri Markkanen, CLE (ankle): OUT 

Will Barton, DEN (illness): PROBABLE 

Jerami Grant, DET (conditioning): OUT 

Deandre Ayton, PHO (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Patrick Beverley, MIN (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Jae Crowder, PHO (wrist): QUESTIONABLE 

Elite Players

We have three healthy players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Nikola Jokic ($11,500), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) and Luka Doncic ($10,800)

Jokic missed the first game against the Bucks but draws a very good matchup against Bobby Portis down low. Jokic has also scored over 50 FD points in eight straight games.   

Giannis racked up 60.1 FD points in his most recent contest Friday and posted 52.1 in just 30 minutes against Denver in the first meeting. 

Doncic exploded for 63.2 FD points Saturday night versus the Pacers and has now scored over 60 in four of the last seven. He also boasts a 39.9 percent usage rate and averages 57.2 FD points per 36 minutes without Tim Hardaway (foot) and Porzingis off the floor. 

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned, other likely chalk plays include: 

Devin Booker, PHO ($9,400) 

Booker has scored 48.1 to 63.4 FD points in his last three games and faces a Spurs team missing its starting backcourt Sunday. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,300) 

KAT won't have to contend with Rudy Gobert down low Sunday and checks in having scored over 40 FD points in four of the last five games.

Chris Paul, PHO ($9,200) 

Paul has been on a tear that's seen him rack up over 50 FD points in four of the last five contests, as well as 47.4 in the game prior to the start of that stretch. Like Booker, he'll also have the benefit of facing a short-handed Spurs backcourt. 

Key Values 

Keldon Johnson, SAN at PHO ($5,900) 

The Spurs will be without Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl on Sunday, meaning Johnson could easily be one of the primary sources of scoring for San Antonio. Johnson owns a 23.6 percent usage rate without his trio of teammates on the floor, and he already checks in having scored 34.1 and 35.6 FD points in his last two games. The young big has scored no fewer than 27.3 in his last four overall, and zooming out to a 10-game sample, he's shooting 52.1 percent, including 45.2 percent from three-point range. Phoenix could continue without Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton down low Sunday as well, which would also make matters easier for Johnson. 

Maxi Kleber, DAL at ORL ($4,200) 

Kleber has been outstanding the last two games, posting 31.5 and 36.3 FD points. The latter total was partly the result of Kristaps Porzingis going down in the second quarter of that contest against the Pacers, and with the big man already ruled out for Sunday, Kleber should be in good position to pay strong dividends again on his very modest salary. Kleber is averaging 28.4 FD points per 36 minutes with Porzingis off the floor this season, and that figure bumps up to 30.9 when also factoring in the absence of Tim Hardaway (foot). The Magic are also yielding the fifth-highest offensive efficiency to frontcourt players (82.2 percent), furthering Kleber's case.

Cedi Osman, CLE at DET ($3,700)

Osman could draw a start at small forward with Lauri Markkanen out of action, and at just $200 away from bare minimum, he could be one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar values of the night. The veteran wing exploded for 36.6 FD points in his most recent contest Wednesday against the Bucks, a game in which he logged a hefty 34 minutes with Markkanen unavailable. The opposing Pistons could well facilitate another breakout effort, as they've allowed the highest offensive efficiency to small forwards (24.9 percent), along with an NBA-high 44.4 FD points per game to the position on the season. Osman could also benefit from Detroit's tendency to allow plenty of long-range success, as they've given up the second-highest three-point percentage (36.7) in the NBA.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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