FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have another modest slate on tap Sunday night with five games on the docket. While the first two project to be lopsided affairs, the remaining trio could well turn into wire-to-wire battles. The injury report does have some notable names on it, yet not enough to dilute the player pool.

Slate Overview

Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5) at Houston Rockets (O/U: 237.0 points)

Utah Jazz (-13.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 221.0 points)

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5) (O/U: 210.0 points)

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets (-3.5) (O/U: 229.0 points)

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5) (O/U: 220.5 points)

The expansive spreads for both the Grizzlies-Rockets and Jazz-Thunder matchups appear warranted considering the favorites are 2-0 against their opponents this season and the Thunder are also missing a key piece in Josh Giddey (hip). Utah has been a bit less trustworthy than Memphis as a favorite – their latest 34-point loss to the Pelicans qualifies as Exhibit A in that regard – but OKC would still seem to be overmatched in Sunday's scenario.

The other games on the ledger should all be as close as projected if each team plays to its capabilities. The Raptors have sustained a pair of narrow losses to the lowly Pistons and Magic from their last pair of outings, but they should be competitive in any matchup. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are shaping up as one of the biggest potential surprises of the stretch run while the Knicks just suffered a narrow one-point defeat at the hands of the Suns.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Nikola Jokic, DEN (illness): PROBABLE

Jokic is expected to return after his one-game absence, a development that sends DeMarcus Cousins back to the bench.

Josh Giddey, OKC (hip): OUT

With Giddey's sidelined, Aaron Wiggins (ankle) and Tre Mann could log the majority of minutes at shooting guard.

Fred VanVleet, TOR (knee): QUESTIONABLE

If VanVleet sits again, Malachi Flynn (hamstring) would be in line to draw another start at point guard if he can overcome his own questionable status.

Mike Conley, UTA (rest): OUT

In Conley's absence, Jordan Clarkson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker should see the majority of minutes at point guard.

Other notable injuries:

Norman Powell, LAC (foot): OUT

Caris LeVert, CLE (foot): DOUBTFUL

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT

Paul George, LAC (elbow): OUT

Malachi Flynn, TOR (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE

OG Anunoby, TOR (finger): OUT

Luguentz Dort, OKC (shoulder): OUT

Dennis Schroder, HOU (ankle): QUESTIONABLE

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate –Nikola Jokic ($10,900), Ja Morant ($10,300) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,200).

As mentioned, Jokic is expected to return to action after missing one game and has scored 44.5 to 65.9 FD points in four straight. He's also averaged 31.0 points (on 67.3 percent shooting), 12.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists and 1.7 steals across three games versus the Pelicans this season.

Morant has posted over 40 FD points in five consecutive outings and faces a Rockets team allowing NBA-high 28.0 percent offensive efficiency to point guards.

Gilgeous-Alexander has produced at least 46.9 and as many as 64.4 FD points in his last four games. He shot just 41.2 percent in his one previous game against the Jazz this year, but he does sport a 37.0 percent usage rate and average of 54.8 FD per 36 minutes with Giddey and Dort off the floor.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($9,000)

Mitchell scored just 20.4 FD points over 30 minutes during the loss to the Pelicans on Friday, but he also eclipsed 50 in two of the prior four matchups.

Julius Randle, NYK ($8,600)

Randle is averaging 47.2 FD points across his last 12 games, going under 35 only once during that stretch. 

Brandon Ingram, NOP ($8,200)

Ingram is averaging 43.5 FD points while shooting 61.4 percent over his last four games, numbers that should keep him very popular Sunday.

RJ Barrett, NYK ($7,900)

Barrett's current four-game tear of 43.3 FD points per game on the strength of 30.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists should ensure he's in plenty of lineups on a small slate.

Key Values 

Desmond Bane, MEM at HOU ($5,600)

The combination of Bane's recent salary drop and this matchup make him a very appealing value play. The star wing has bounced back nicely from a three-game funk to post 29.9 and 34.2 FD points in his last two games, pushing his average back up to 29.8 for the season. Bane has averaged a relatively modest 26.1 FD points in two games against the Rockets, but Houston has gotten more vulnerable defensively and is now allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to two-guards (23.3 percent) along with the third-most FD points per game to the position (42.6). The Rockets have also been notably weaker on the perimeter of late, giving up a 38.7 percent success rate from behind the arc in the last three games.

Mitchell Robinson, NYK at LAC ($5,600)

Robinson just racked up 56.5 FD in 36 minutes against the Suns on Friday, his second tally over 56 over the last six. The big man is a quintessential tournament play, as his production certainly fluctuates. However, the matchup against the Clippers is favorable, as Los Angeles is allowing the 12th-highest offensive efficiency to centers (32.2 percent) and 52.4 FD points per game to the position. He also posted 20.6 FD points in only 16 minutes versus the Clippers during their first matchup this season and has been a more productive rebounder on the road, averaging 9.1 boards compared to 8.5 at home.

Alec Burks, NYK at LAC ($5,100)

Burks has drawn four straight starts at point guard coming out of the All-Star break with Kemba Walker sitting out the rest of the season and has responded by scoring 22.6 to 39.8 FD [points in three of those outings. The veteran has had his trademark long-range shot working, draining 44.4 percent of his 4.5 three-point attempts during that span. The Clippers have also become more vulnerable to point guards as the season has unfolded, now allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency to the position (27.2 percent) and sixth-most FD points per game to ones on the campaign (48.2). They've also been one of the best teams at defending against three-point shooting this season, but that's slipped in the last three games with a 36.2 percent success rate allowed.

ALSO CONSIDER: Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. MEM ($4,600); Royce O'Neale, UTA at OKC ($4,500)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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