This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
After a surprisingly rough game from the Wizards, Russell Westbrook and company find themselves in an elimination game against the Pacers, who absolutely dominated the Hornets in the first play-in game. Thursday marks our first Single-Game contest, and I've produced an article that discusses in-depth strategies for this format here.
These two teams have met twice already, and it was a fast-paced barnburner on both occasions. With an O/U of 237 and a tight three-point spread, expect this matchup to be an absolute shootout. Neither team is particularly strong defensively, which adds to the potential of this elimination game.
I advocate building from the bottom to secure value in our utility spots, followed by core players who will fill our MVP (2x), Star (1.5x) and Pro (1.2x) spots. This game is a bit of an exception, however. The multiplier spots mostly play themselves in this matchup, so we will begin there.
MULTIPLIER PLAYS
Russell Westbrook, WAS ($16,000)
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($15,000)
Bradley Beal, WAS ($14,500)
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($13,500) (QUESTIONABLE)
Daniel Gafford, WAS ($10,000)
The first three players are virtual locks for me, with Brogdon being more of a contrarian option in the multiplier. If we hear that Brogdon is off a limit, we'll definitely look to include him in bulk builds, but single-entry contests will be full of Beal, Westbrook and Sabonis, and for a good reason.
Considering that this is a must-win game for both teams, we assume that Westbrook will bounce back after a disappointing effort against the Celtics. Unlike Boston, Indiana isn't known for playing defense, and a look at the Wizards' last two games is evidence of how poorly they play against Westbrook. The triple-double machine went off for 80 and 75 FDFP in those two matchups. Although it is close between Westbrook and Sabonis, most of my builds will have Westbrook in the MVP slot.
Recent lines have been extremely kind to Sabonis, and he's responded well to the fast pace that the Wizards provide. He put up almost identical results (71.3 and 70.4 FDFP) in his two meetings with Washington, so when choosing between Sabonis and Westbrook for the MVP spot, the standout center provides an arguably more stable floor.
The third spot is a little more interesting, and the three options turn out drastically different utility options. We will analyze our final elite pick in relation to my favored values.
VALUE PLAYS
Rui Hachimura, WAS ($10,500)
Doug McDermott ($10,000)
Ish Smith, WAS ($9,000)
Robin Lopez, WAS ($8,000)
Garrison Mathews, IND ($7,000)
Alex Len, WAS ($7,500)
Here's the problem with going for Beal in the PRO spot. You're limited to a UTIL build of Garrison Mathews and Alex Len, who are only on this value list due to the limitations involving a Beal rostering. If the Wizards were smart, they would slap a DNP on Len and just go with Lopez and Gafford. Len doesn't do much for the team unless he gets a hot hand, and it's just exponentially more likely that Gafford and Lopez produce a higher total. You experience the same problem with Brogdon in the PRO spot, although you can get to a Lopez-Matthews/Len build with him. Gafford and McDermott are really the only sensible ways that I get what I'm looking for. Gafford allows you to find a way to Smith along with Lopez and players like Doug McDermott and Davis Bertans. After a great deal of tinkering, I ultimately decided that the differential lost with Beal was less than I would lose with Len and Matthews, so the various combos looked like this. The players are listed at each position with the order of preference.
MVP: Westbrook, Sabonis
STAR: Sabonis, Westbrook
PRO: Hachimura, Gafford, McDermott, Brogdon/Beal
UTILS: Smith, McDermott, Hachimura, Lopez, Matthews, Len
When trying to explain why I am excluding Davis Bertans, I think my colleague Alex Barutha said it best on Twitter:
While many players will end up going in his direction due to the attractive price in the value range, he is only a tournament flier for me. He's entirely too shot-dependent, and his potential upside doesn't match what you could get in return with someone like Hachimura or Smith.
