This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's six-game slate offers some intriguing matchups with very few game-time calls to make. You'll be able to construct a reasonably safe lineup long before lock, and only a few quick checks will be necessary until late-swap time, which you should always do in an attempt to salvage lineups that aren't going your way.
SLATE OVERVIEW
GSW (-8) @ CLE O/U: 207.5
MIA (-7) vs. WAS O/U: 209.5
LAC (-1) @ MEM O/U: 220.5
MIN (-2) vs. SAS O/U: 222
DEN (-7.5) vs. PHI O/U: 209.5
UTA (-9.5) vs. TOR O/U: 213.5
The Warriors-Cavs total is a bit of a head-scratcher, but if Stephen Curry doesn't play, it looks like a more reasonable prediction. Conversely, I'm not entirely convinced by the high totals for the LAC-MEM and SAS-MIN contests. We've hit all four of these teams hard in our endorsements, however.
INJURIES
GSW Stephen Curry (hip) - PROBABLE
Curry's absence would be a massive blow to the guard pool on the slate. Jordan Poole ($5,600) would see a significant boost in this spot, as would Damion Lee ($4,000).
CLE Jarrett Allen (illness) - OUT
CLE Lauri Markkanen (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
We'll stop mentioning the long-term injuries of Mobley and Sexton for now. Although Kevin Love ($5,600) plays fine in this spot, it was Ed Davis ($3,500) who finished the night with 11 rebounds, and Dean Wade ($4,500) beat value as well.
MIA Bam Adebayo (knee) - OUT
The Heat should get Butler back tonight, so the rotation should normalize a bit. In Adebayo's likely absence, P.J. Tucker ($4,500) is the best value.
LAC Terance Mann (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
LAC Marcus Morris (knee) - OUT
LAC Nicolas Batum (Achilles) - DOUBTFUL
These injuries affect the Clippers all over the court. Luke Kennard ($4,600) would get a boost if these absences hold, and we will likely see some additional run from Eric Bledsoe ($5,700) at the two if Kennard stays out.
SAS Jakob Poeltl (conditioning) - OUT
Drew Eubanks ($5,500) will start again for the Spurs. Poeltl is out of the COVID 19 window but will need some conditioning time before returning to the court.
PHI Joel Embiid (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
PHI Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Andre Drummond ($8,200) is the apparent but pricey pivot here.
DEN Will Barton (back) - DOUBTFUL
Austin Rivers ($3,900) is currently starting for Barton, but his totals haven't been outstanding. Monte Morris ($5,100) is doing a great job of absorbing the usage gaps in the backcourt.
TOR OG Anunoby (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR Precious Achiuwa (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR Chris Boucher (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Rather than looking to Khem Birch, I prefer sticking with Pascal Siakam ($8,100) to fill the frontcourt gaps. Scottie Barnes ($6,800) works as an excellent cover for Anunoby.
ELITE PLAYERS
We will dip down to $8,500 in discussing the Top 10 in the player pool tonight. Paul George ($10,100) continues to carry the Clippers, and his value is enhanced with some critical injuries in the backcourt.
While expensive, Nikola Jokic ($11,600) is in a great spot against Philly, who will once again be playing without Joel Embiid. The last player in the 10k range to look at is Ja Morant ($10,000), who is fine but a little too expensive. After three games with 50-plus FDFP evenings, he dipped below that number for the past two contests. We need a number that is well north of that, which may be difficult against the Clippers.
We've already discussed Jimmy Butler ($9,700), and I find myself sliding past some usual talk to include Donovan Mitchell ($8,600) as a +EV play for Utah. He regressed a bit against Philly two days ago, but before that, he rattled off two consecutive 47-FDFP efforts, which is right where we need him at this salary.
Also consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA ($8,500).Bradley Beal, WAS ($8,700)
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Anthony Edwards, MIN ($8,200) vs. SAS
Edwards had some superb games against the Spurs last season, and he faces a Spurs team that is swimming at the bottom of the league pool defensively. They are 25th in overall defensive and are pretty poor at just about every position. It would be great to have his salary closer to $7,500, but I still think he can beat value against this weak defense.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,500) @ DEN
It's safe to go back to Harris again, although high altitude may affect him a bit as he works back to 100 percent. He's been very solid since his return to action, averaging 21 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists over the past three games.
Ricky Rubio, CLE ($6,800) vs. GSW
Rubio has emerged as a more desirable option than Darius Garland while Collin Sexton is sidelined, and his prolific dime-dropping ability has not gone away. He is currently averaging right above 5x value at this salary, and I see no reason to move away from him right now.
Keldon Johnson, SAS ($6,700) @ MIN
While I like Dejounte Murray ($9,900), his salary has become too excessive, so it's time to comb through the Spurs to find better value. Johnson appears to be the right fit. He's averaging 32.5 FDFP over his past five games, and with a minute average of 34.2, he is getting plenty of opportunity as a starter in San Antonio. Excellent secondary numbers can also save him when his shot volume is less than usual.
Also consider: Fred VanVleet, TOR ($8,400)
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, please look through the pivot in the injury section for some excellent value candidates.
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($5,900) vs. LAC
I'll keep calling Brooks' number until he's well above $6K. Like many others, I think Brooks is exactly what this team needs to move forward, and his contributions only help Ja Morant and the rest of the team with solid scoring and great defense. Granted, he didn't do quite as well as hoped in his past two games, where he only racked up 26 FDFP, but more of his shots should fall this time around against Clippers defense that could be without some of their better defenders, Paul George will likely be occupied with Jaren Jackson, leaving Brooks to roam free in the corners.
Thaddeus Young, SAS ($5,800) @ MIN
With Jakob Poeltl out, Young has quietly given the Spurs a solid frontcourt boost, which is desperately needed as the Spurs struggle to stay relevant in the conference. Over the past five games, his numbers have been stellar, averaging almost 30 FDFP while averaging 12.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists.
Isaac Okoro, CLE ($4,300) vs. GSW
I view Okoro as a tournament play only. When you think about Okoro's upside and potential for increased opportunity in the current injury scenario, his salary looks appealingly low. Unfortunately, we haven't seen enough consistency from him to give a full-throated endorsement, but he does provide some salary-cap relief as a GPP flier if you are loading up on elite talent. He is coming off a game where he saw an eye-popping 39 minutes on the floor, so the opportunity is definitely there for the youngster.
Also consider: Reggie Jackson, LAC ($6,300), Aaron Gordon, DEN ($5,100), Jarred Vanderbilt, MIN ($4,000)
