This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Here are some futures options that stand out to me with the season a third of the way over.
Utah Jazz +1600 to Win NBA Title -- DraftKings
The Jazz are a league-best 20-5, and they've lost just one game since Jan. 8. Utah is securing wins with a balanced attack, ranking both fourth in offense (117.0 ORTG) and defense (108.0 DRTG). The standout characteristics are an NBA-best 26.3 offensive rebound percentage and an NBA-best 49.9 opponent effective field-goal percentage.
Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley all have All-Star arguments. Mitchell is averaging 24.0 points, 5.1 assists and 4.3 rebounds. Gobert is averaging 13.4 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.7 blocks and 1.4 assists. Conley's numbers are more modest at 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.7 rebounds and 1.4 steals. However, he has an absurd +18.7 point differential. Jordan Clarkson is also a deserving Sixth Man of the Year favorite, averaging 17.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 25.5 minutes.
I don't have strong confidence that the Jazz will win the NBA title. The Lakers still make sense as favorites. But Utah has played too well to be +1,600.
Nikola Jokic +500 to win MVP -- PointsBet
The best argument against Jokic is that the Nuggets are only two games over .500 (13-11). There are numbers to indicate the Nuggets are better than their record -- namely, expected record based on points scored and allowed, which suggests Denver is actually a 15-9 team. That's not a drastic difference, but when it feels like everyone is doing everything they can to hand the award to 36-year-old LeBron James, it matters.
Before diving into any advanced metrics, just look at Jokic's box score averages: 26.9 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks. And the efficiency: 56.7 FG%, 40.0 3Pt%, 85.0 FT%.
Jokic's efficiency (64.8 TS%) combined with his usage (29.3%) is historic in itself. There have only been seven seasons in NBA history with at least 64 TS% and 29 USG%
- Giannis in 2018-19 (MVP)
- Curry in 2018-19 (5th in MVP voting despite playing only 69 games and KD being on the team)
- Durant in 2017-18 (7th in MVP, Finals MVP)
- Curry in 2015-16 (MVP)
- LeBron in 2013-14 (2nd in MVP)
- LeBron in 2012-13 (MVP, Finals MVP)
- KD in 2012-13 (2nd in MVP)
So, based on those stats alone, Jokic is practically a lock to be within the Top 2 this season, assuming he keeps it up (the Warriors guys are the clear exception to the list. They were taking away MVPs from each other). Jokic is also the current leader in VORP (2.8), BPM (11.0) and Win Shares (5.2). I'm not saying he'll win it, but +500 is a good number to get him at.
Jerami Grant -120 for Most Improved Player -- PointsBet
Other players have legitimate arguments for the award, including Christian Wood (+250), Jaylen Brown (+500), Chris Boucher (+1,600) and Julius Randle (+4000) -- all odds from DraftKings. At this point, I don't think any of those are lousy value, except maybe Jaylen Brown. I think regression in his shooting is coming.
What Grant is doing is extremely rare in the NBA. He was a role player that left a winning team because he was convinced he could do more -- and he succeeded. It hasn't generated wins for 6-18 Detroit, but Grant is averaging 24.3 points on 17.8 shots, 5.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 combined steals-plus-blocks. He increased his usage rate by 8.2 percent, more than doubled his assist rate (14.8) and kept his true shooting percentage (59.0) flat.
Grant's primary challenger, Wood, has an argument because the Rockets are 11-13. However, the team around him is clearly better, and we saw him put up big numbers toward the end of last season. Grant's improvement is much more of a shock.
LaMelo Ball -303 for Rookie of the Year -- BetMGM
Just two weeks ago, I think Tyrese Haliburton had a real case for the award, and I may have picked him if you forced me to. That's changed since Ball has joined the starting five. He's been sensational over the past six games, averaging 21.7 points, 6.3 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 33.3 minutes. Even if he gets bumped back to the bench once Devonte' Graham is healthy, Ball should clear 25 minutes every night without question.
If you back me into a corner and berate me with "Haliburton's point differential is better; his efficiency is better; the advanced acronyms are practically identical!" I won't say that doesn't matter. Haliburton could end up the better player -- I wouldn't bet on it, but it could happen. Wagering on Ball at -303 for ROY comes down to him having the hype machine obsessed with him. One example: Bleacher Report has mentioned Tyrese Haliburton three times on Twitter since the draft, and only six times ever. I didn't even bother counting how many times LaMelo Ball was mentioned. It was too many to even bother with. And I know, I know, Bleacher Report followers don't vote on awards (Thank God). LaMelo has just done too much at this point. He has good numbers and incredible highlights for a team that's performing above expectations.
