Hoops Lab: Jokic is Back

There's been a quiet storyline out of Denver this season, but I think it's been louder in the analytics community: The disappearance of Nikola Jokic. Jokic isn't a household name, but he was REALLY good last year as a rookie, then had a great run this summer, leading the Serbian team to challenge the US before ultimately ending up with the silver medal at the Olympics. While Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have been hailed as the stars of the 2016 rookie class, this is what the Rookie of the Year vote from 2016 finished like:

1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. Nikola Jokic
4. Devin Booker
5. Jahlil Okafor
6. Justise Winslow
7. Emmanuel Mudiay
8. Myles Turner
9. D'Angelo Russell

According to some in the analytics community, Jokic may have actually measured out as the most impressive of the rookies last season. Towns and Porzingis had the more eye-catching box score stats, but in impact measures Jokic was outstanding. All that said, this is a fantasy article. So, let's take a look at the fantasy projections this year from Yahoo!

Rankings (preseason, based on projections):

Towns (5)
Porzingis (24)
Jokic (25)
Booker (109)
Okafor (94)

That's right. It wasn't just an analytics phenomenon. The fantasy community was also exceedingly high on Jokic coming into the season, putting him right there with Porzingis and way ahead of all other non-KAT sophomores in the rankings. Jokic looked like a budding star.

The only problem was, Jokic hasn't played like it. He started off the season rough, and eventually found himself moved to the second unit for the Nuggets. Through his first 16 games, Jokic was averaging only 8.7 points (50% FG, 74.1% FT), 6.0 boards, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks with 1.4 turnovers. The man with a third-round ADP of 32.9 was barely rosterable, based upon his production.

But, don't look now -- Jokic has woken up.

Jokic entered Monday night's game with four double-doubles in his last five outings, even though he is still coming off the bench. In those five games, which wrap around three games that he missed completely with a wrist problem, he was averaging 15.0 points (57.4 FG, 87% FT), 10.6 boards, 3.2 assists, 0.4 and 1.0 blocks with 1.6 turnovers in 26 minutes off the bench. Then, on Monday, he kicked it up another notch by scoring 27 points (10-for-12 FG, 7-for-7 FT) with 11 boards, four assists and a blocked shot in 26 minutes off the bench.

Now THAT is what I'm talking about!

The ideal time to deal for Jokic would have been before his breakout, of course, but there was no guarantee that such a breakout was coming anytime soon. Sometimes, sophomore slumps last for a season, or perhaps he was burned out from the Olympics. Jokic is still only 21 years old and relatively new to United States, so perhaps the adjustment was a contributing factor. Whatever the reason, he seems to be fine now and is starting to play to his potential.

His season-long numbers are still relatively pedestrian, and perhaps his owner in your league is still a bit wary that this stretch is fool's gold. Maybe someone wants to sell high on him or is still gitchy about him coming off the bench. Perhaps you can talk a good game and get him thrown in as the second player in a larger, 2-for-2 blockbuster.

If any of those are the case for you. I'd be all about trading for Jokic right now at anything under third-round value. Because I believe the Jokic we've seen for the past couple of weeks is much more representative of him than the Jokic we saw the first few weeks. And more importantly than that, Jokic is the only potential franchise talent on a lottery-bound Nuggets squad. I have to feel like he is going to regain his starting job at some point so that the team can fully evaluate what they'll have in him moving forward. Y'all know I'm an analytics nerd. Jokic really is right there with Towns and Porzingis as a prospect. So if you can deal for Jokic for significantly less than what you would have to pay for Porzingis, you should be getting good value.

Around the NBA

Davis with another late injury scratch: As I pointed out in this space last week, Davis already had two mid-game departures, plus an outright injury absence on his resume. On Saturday, he added another, and for me a more painful one as a relatively late scratch for rest. He's one of the super-high-priced guys that is only worth it if he actually gives you a 60+ fantasy points outing, because you have to spend so much of your budget on him in DFS. Davis sitting, especially when I was busy doing family stuff and missed the announcement, absolutely murderized my DFS lineup.

And in year-long leagues with weekly line-up transactions, that makes a fourth time this year that Davis has played less than anticipated in a given week. It's one thing for a 12-year vet to get maintenance rest; it's quite another for a 23 year old to need it. Like I said last week, when he plays he's so brilliant that you kind of have no choice but to roll with it. Last year these incidents kept coming until I eventually had to trade him/put him on my don't-buy-outside-of-emergency list. I'm not there yet this season, but I am to the point of keeping track of this moving forward, and if it continues we'll have to reevaluate.

Gasol's greatness and rest: As D.J. Trainor and I talked about in our podcast on Monday, Marc Gasol has been close to perfect for the last six games with Mike Conley out. Over that stretch, Gasol is averaging 25.5 points (50.9% FG, 81.1% FT) with 7.5 boards, 5.3 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.8 treys, 1.5 steals and 2.2 turnovers per game. That is a positive uptick in every category with no real weaknesses. Of course, as soon as we talk him up on the podcast, it was announced that Gasol would sit Tuesday for rest purposes. This makes a lot more sense for a 32-year old center coming off offseason knee issues than it did (as mentioned above) for the 23-year old Davis. Plus, the Grizzlies announced it early enough for everyone to be able to plan for it. All in all, with the way he's been playing lately, I don't begrudge Gasol his night off on Tuesday.

Blake's knee: Blake Griffin sat on Saturday with a sore knee, his second DNP in the last two weeks. Griffin has continued to play well around the DNPs, but with all of his injury issues last year it is concerning to see him requiring knee maintenance days so early in the season. Nevertheless, he returned to a big game on Monday (26 points, 12 boards, six assists in 40 minutes) so he is clearly a play unless announced otherwise, but if I own him in year-long leagues I might quietly start putting out some feelers to potentially move him as I don't fully trust him for the long haul.

Embiid's elbow: Joel Embiid had some minor inflammation in his right elbow that caused him to sit out Sunday's game. It is perceived to be a minor ailment, and Embiid will be back in the lineup Wednesday.
Gay leaves: Rudy Gay exited Monday's game against the Lakers with a right hip flexor injury and didn't return. Ben McLemore also left Monday's game with a quad problem, and both players -- in addition to DeMarcus Cousins (rest) -- will sit out Wednesday night against Houston. That should open things up in the short term for guys like Garrett Temple (16 points on Monday), Omri Casspi (13 points on Monday) or Arron Afflalo to step up.

Oladipo's wrist: Victor Oladipo had to leave Sunday's game against Boston after crashing to the floor on defense, and he didn't practice on Monday with a wrist injury. The X-rays on the wrist were negative, but there was residual soreness. Oladipo sat out Tuesday against Portland will be held out Wednesday against Utah, as well.

New Additions and DFS value

Tyler Johnson, Heat (52% owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Johnson is productive enough in his sixth man role that he just needs to be owned. Over his last two weeks he's averaging 14.1 points, 4.1 boards, 3.8 assists, 1.5 treys, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and only 1.1 turnovers in more than 33 minutes per game. He's essentially a starter coming off the bench.

Alex Len, Suns (52% owned): Len is an upside play, because he's the young up-and-coming big man on a terrible Suns team that currently starts veteran Tyson Chandler at center. At some point, realizing they're not going anywhere, you'd think the Suns would give their young players more run. Plus, even as the secondary center he's averaging nearly a double-double at 9.0 points, 7.7 boards and 1.6 blocks per game.

Brandon Jennings, Knicks (21% owned): Jennings is similar to Johnson, with less production at present but more upside in the face of injury. Over the last month, primarily off the bench, Jennings has averaged 8.9 points with 5.5 assists, 2.7 boards and 1.1 steals. But as a starter he has averaged 14.5 points, 5.0 assists and 4.5 boards in two games. Derrick Rose isn't exactly an iron man, so Jennings' starter upside is a legitimate weighing consideration.

Andre Roberson, Thunder (16% owned): Victor Oladipo injured his wrist and has been ruled out for Tuesday, with his return date unknown. Roberson is a defensive/garbage-man contributor, averaging 1.3 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.8 treys in addition to 4.7 boards to get his value. If Oladipo's injury opens up any scoring/minutes opportunities, he has upside as a legitimate, all-around player.

Omri Casspi, Kings (4% owned): Rudy Gay injured his hip on Monday and will miss at least one game. Thus, Casspi is more of a short-term add or DFS consideration. Casspi has shown in the past that he can produce as a starter, so while Gay is out he's worth considering.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow for the freshest NBA content every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day, writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYTSports basketball show on the weekends.