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Best Bets
Brook Lopez over 12.5 points (-120) at Toronto
DraftKings, 4:36 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss his first game of the season tonight, so we don't have much of a sample of how the new-look Bucks will approach the situation. Badly, I assume. But other than that, the on/off court data shows the biggest bumps in usage for Lillard (+9.5 USG%) and Lopez (+9.6 USG%). Lillard's props seem on-point, but I think there's value for Lopez on points. The center averages 16.9 shot attempts per 36 minutes with Giannis off the court. He probably won't see 36 minutes, but it's still a great rate when all he needs to do is clear 12.5 points. And with Khris Middleton still presumably limited, someone needs to step up for the Bucks. We saw Lopez do it last year.
Coby White over 15.5 points (-125) vs. Magic
DraftKings, 4:38 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Bulls are a mess, and recent reports suggest the front office is looking to potentially offload Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan. Well, DeRozan is out tonight, so his touches have to go somewhere. White sees a +8.2% USG increase with DeRozan on the sidelines, averaging 17.9 shot attempts per 36. I won't be surprised if he actually plays 36 minutes tonight. It helps this game is at home and Orlando is on the second night of a back-to-back.
Jayson Tatum over 31.5 points (-125) at 76ers
DraftKings, 4:49 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are out, meaning Tatum will need to step up in a major way. This is certainly a high number against a good team, but Tatum is already averaging 28.4 PPG, and he sees a ridiculous +12.8 USG% bump when both Porzingis and Brown are off the court, leading to 36.8 points on 26.9 shots per 36 minutes. This is also a slight pace-up spot for the Celtics, and Philly is on the second night of a back-to-back.
Dallas Mavericks -6.0 at Washington Wizards
DraftKings Sportsbook, 11:30am CT
Nick Whalen: I know Kyrie Irving is questionable, but even if he sits I still like the Mavs to bounce back and handle the Wizards on the second night of a back-to-back. Dallas fell victim to an off shooting night against New Orleans on Tuesday, hitting just 14-of-42 three-point attempts with off nights from both Irving and Luka Doncic. Dallas is already 2-0 without Irving this season, winning by 9 over Chicago and 15 over Memphis.
Paolo Banchero O1.5 made three-pointers
DraftKings Sportsbook, 11:30am CT
Nick Whalen: Banchero has gone over this number in three of his last five, including in last night's win over the Nets, when he drilled four three-pointers in 35 minutes. Banchero's shooting does tend to come and go, but Chicago is allowing the most three-point attempts per game, while allowing opponents to shoot better than 37 percent. You can find the O1.5 at +105 at the DraftKings Sportsbook and get slightly better value (+118) at FanDuel.
Tyrese Maxey over 4.5 rebounds versus Boston (+104)
FanDuel, 4:25 EST
Ken Crites: Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are both game-time decisions for tonight's game in Philly. Either of those two missing should free up boards for the Sixers. But of more importance is Joel Embiid's questionable tag (hip). If Embiid is out, all the Sixers will need to crash the glass. If Embiid plays, that means Jrue Holiday will spend a lot of time (surprisingly) guarding Embiid. Holiday was on Embiid most of the time these two teams met on November 8th. If Holiday is on Embiid, Maxey could have a much easier time grabbing offensive rebounds. In his last four games, Maxey is averaging 6.5 rebounds per contest. He's on a rebounding heater. Maxey could really take advantage of Boston's weak bench tonight. I'm 6-4 so far, but certainly feel free to fade.
