We have a five-game main slate on Saturday night, one that features a relatively light injury report in terms of short-term absences. Half of the teams in action are on the second leg of back-to-back sets, however, so that could certainly play a factor in terms of fatigue to a certain extent.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, Nov. 22 @ 12:00 p.m. EST:
Atlanta Hawks (-8.5) at *New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 231.5)
*Washington Wizards at *Chicago Bulls (-12.5) (O/U: 243.5)
Detroit Pistons (-8) at Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 223.5)
Memphis Grizzlies at *Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) (O/U: 228.5)
Sacramento Kings at *Denver Nuggets (-11) (O/U: 236.5)
*Denotes team on second game of back-to-back set
We have a mixed bag of a betting outlook Saturday, as the fact two teams are listed as double-digit favorites on such a small slate is far from ideal. Projected totals are encouraging overall, but the two highest figures are attached to games that are projected to be especially lopsided.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (thigh): OUT
In Antetokounmpo's ongoing absence, Bobby Portis should continue in a starting power forward role, while Ryan Rollins should especially be primed for a bump in usage.
Zion Williamson, NOP (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
If Williamson can't suit up Saturday, Saddiq Bey would be due for a spot start at power forward, while the rest of the starting five would see a notable increase in usage.
Jaren Jackson, MEM (ankle): DOUBTFUL
In Jackson's likely absence, Santi Aldama could draw a start at power forward and the likes of Zach Edey and Vince Williams could be benefit from additional opportunities.
Other notable injuries:
Trae Young, ATL (knee): OUT
Ja Morant, MEM (calf): OUT
Anthony Davis, DAL (calf): OUT
Aaron Gordon, DEN (hamstring): OUT
Onyeka Okongwu, ATL (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
We have three players with five-figure salaries who have a chance to play on Saturday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($12,700), Cade Cunningham ($10,400) and Jalen Johnson ($10,000).
Jokic posted a signature 64.5 FD-point tally Friday against the Rockets in a tough matchup, and he could be headed for even more usage than usual Saturday due to Aaron Gordon being ruled out with a hamstring issue.
Cunningham scored 50.2 FD points in 34 minutes in his return from a three-game absence Tuesday, and he'll be particularly well-rested for Saturday's matchup with a full three days between games.
Johnson will continue to see spiked usage in the absence of Trae Young and has scored at least 45 FD points in six straight games while shooting 58.2 percent, including 52.0 percent from behind the arc, during that span.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Josh Giddey, CHI ($9,500)
Giddey is averaging 50.7 FD points in his last nine games and is in a particularly favorable matchup against the Wizards, which should make him very popular Saturday.
Jalen Duren, DET ($8,300)
Duren is averaging 49.3 FD points over his last six contests and has eclipsed 50 FD points on four occasions in that span, which should result in a very high roster rate at his salary.
Jamal Murray, DEN ($8,100)
Murray's strong run of production continued Friday with 45.4 FD points against the Rockets, pushing his average over the last seven games to 41.5.
Ryan Rollins, MIL ($7,600)
Rollins has been excellent in his starting point guard role and even more productive with Giannis Antetokounmpo out, scoring 34.1 and 60.2 FD points in the last two games.
Key Values
Santi Aldama, MEM at DAL ($6,000)
Aldama appears headed for a second consecutive start Saturday due to Jaren Jackson's doubtful status, making the former a very intriguing value option after he posted 44.5 FD points in his first run with the first unit against the Kings on Thursday. The versatile big man shot a blistering 11-for-18 from the floor in that game, and he came into the contest already averaging 31.5 FD points across 27 minutes per game in the previous five outings while coming off the bench. Saturday, Aldama draws a favorable matchup against a Mavericks team surrendering 49.6 FD points per game to power forwards in the last seven contests, along with an NBA-high 62.6 total rebounds per contest at home.
Bobby Portis, MIL vs. DET ($5,600)
Portis is another big poised to benefit from an absence on his squad Saturday, as Giannis Antetokounmpo's ongoing sabbatical will afford the veteran big another start at the four. Portis delivered 31.6 FD points over 28 minutes in his first turn with the first unit against the Sixers on Thursday, a game where he drained an efficient nine of 14 shots from the field. Portis now tangles with a talented Pistons squad, and although Detroit is playing formidably on both ends of the court, they've given up 48.6 FD points per contest to power forwards in the last seven games. Portis should continue being aggressive with plenty of extra usage to go around, making him a candidate to once again deliver over 5x return on his salary.
Jeremiah Fears, NOP vs. ATL ($5,200)
Fears is enjoying a fine rookie season that's most recently seen him put up 29.0 FD points per contest over his last 13 games, a span that encompasses all but the first game of his starting tenure. Fears is displaying impressive efficiency for a rookie – he's connecting on 46.4 percent of his shots, including 40.0 percent from three-point range during that span – and he's complemented his 16.8 points per contest in the sample with 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.9 steals. The versatile seventh overall pick will face a short-handed Hawks squad Saturday that's still missing Trae Young, and which has allowed an NBA-high 61.5 FD points per game to point guards in the last seven contests. Atlanta is also conceding 51.7 percent shooting in the last three contests, furthering Fears' case.
ALSO CONSIDER: Zach Edey, MEM at DAL ($5,900); Vince Williams, MEM at DAL ($5,700)
