NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, November 16

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, November 16

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

After another jam-packed Friday night, we have a modest four-game main slate Saturday that shapes up interestingly for DFS purposes. While the injury report is light, spreads are very elevated, which does present us with the challenge of potentially reduced minutes for some big-name, big-salary players. 

Slate Overview

For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes

Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, 11/16 @11:00 a.m. ET:    

*Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics (-16.5) (O/U: 229.0)
*Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5) at *New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 219.0)
*San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (-10.5) (O/U: 229.5)
Utah Jazz at *Sacramento Kings (-10.5) (O/U: 229.5)

* Denotes team on second game of back-to-back set

As already alluded to, there's a trio of projected blowouts of varying degree among the four games on tap. Two of those involve underdogs that are on the second game of a back-to-back set, but one favorite, the Kings, just played an OT game Friday yet still projects to comfortably pull away from the opposing Jazz.

Totals are acceptable in a vacuum given we have three at 229 or 229.5 points, yet those are all attached to the double-digit spreads. It bears noting that if Luka Doncic is unable to suit up for the Mavericks, then both the line and projected total for that San Antonio-Dallas tilt would naturally change significantly.

Injury Situations to Monitor   

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.

Luka Doncic, DAL (knee): QUESTIONABLE

If Doncic were to sit out, Kyrie Irving would see a major boost in usage while Jaden Hardy and Spencer Dinwiddie would likely handle point guard duties between them.

Lauri Markkanen, UTA (eye): QUESTIONABLE

If Markkanen can't suit up, Cody Williams and Johnny Juzang would likely split small forward duties while the rest of the starting five would see a big increase in opportunity.

DeMar DeRozan, SAC (back): GTD

If DeRozan logs a second straight absence, Alex Len might enter the starting five again while Trey Lyles sees a major boost in minutes off the bench.

Domantas Sabonis, SAC (back): GTD

Sabonis played through back cramps in Friday's OT loss to the Timberwolves, but if he were to sit Saturday, Lyles could enter the starting five.

Other notable injuries:

Walker Kessler, UTA (hip): OUT
Immanuel Quickley, TOR (elbow): OUT
Kelly Olynyk, TOR (back): OUT
P.J. Washington, DAL (knee): DOUBTFUL 
Jrue Holiday, BOS (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Rui Hachimura, LAL (ankle): GTD

Elite Players

We have five players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate:  Victor Wembanyama ($11,800), Luka Doncic ($11,400), Anthony Davis ($11,000), Jayson Tatum ($10,500) and LeBron James ($10,300).

Wembanyama put together another stellar effort Friday night that included 56.3 FD points, and he's scored at least that many in four straight games.

Doncic will need to clear his injury designation, and if he does play, he'll look to put together his third straight game of more than 50 FD points and second such performance versus the Spurs, against which he scored 54 FD points Opening Night.

Davis got the best of the matchup with Wemby on Friday night with a tally of 64.4 FD points, his fourth of over 60 this season.

Tatum recorded 60.8 FD points in his most recent game Wednesday, and it's worth noting Saturday will be the first game the Celtics play this season with two full days off preceding it.

LeBron recorded a triple-double Friday night that netted 48.2 FD points, snapping a six-game streak of games with more than 50 FD points.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Domantas Sabonis, SAC ($9,600)

If Sabonis is cleared to play, he should be very popular on a small slate assuming DeRozan is ruled out for a second straight contest, especially with the former having exceeded 45 FD points in four of the last six games.

De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($8,700)

Fox set a career high and franchise record with 60 points in the OT loss to the Timberwolves on Friday night, an effort that yielded 80.1 FD points. He'll be very popular Saturday as a result, but even more so if DeRozan is announced as out again.

Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,600)

Like Tatum, Brown should benefit from the extra rest between games and checks in having scored 43 and 47.4 FD points in his last two games.

John Collins, UTA ($6,800)

Collins is carrying too modest a salary for his current starting center role, one in which he's scored 57 and 45.3 FD points over the last two games.

Key Values  

Chris Paul, SAN at DAL ($6,200)

There's a number of appealing value options Saturday despite the modest size of the slate, beginning with Paul, who's scored 33.9 to 40.7 FD points in his last three games and at least the low end of that range on seven occasions already. The ageless veteran has exceeded 40 FD points twice as well, and Paul comes into Saturday with three consecutive 11-assist tallies. The Mavericks are allowing the fifth-most dimes (29.7) and sixth-most steals (10.0) per contest over the last three games, and they've conceded 47.1 FD points per game to point guards over the last seven games. 

Trey Murphy, NOP vs. LAL ($5,600)

Murphy has started to hit his stride after a delayed season debut, and the injury-ravaged Pelicans roster he walked back into is helping his fantasy cause. The talented guard scored a season-high 32.1 FD points in Friday's game against the Nuggets, shaking off some of the shooting doldrums from his first two games to drain seven of his 15 attempts. While he still has some fine-tuning to do to get fully up to speed, Murphy should be in a prime position for a solid workload and usage again Saturday against a Lakers team surrendering 45.9 FD points per game to power forwards, Murphy's current position.

Al Horford, BOS vs. TOR ($5,200) 

Horford has gotten a couple of valuable days of rest for his veteran legs, which should serve him well Saturday in a matchup that's been one of the most inviting for centers early this season. Toronto is allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency rating to fives (37.9), along with 61.8 FD points per contest to the position in the last seven games. Horford's production can have some volatility from game to game, but he's already hit at least 30 FD points on three occasions and has at least 23.5 FD points in seven of 11 games overall.

ALSO CONSIDER:  Collin Sexton, UTA at SAC ($5,900); Yves Missi, NOP vs. LAL ($5,300)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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