This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got another relatively quiet night on the college hoops front, but at least we've got a few high-major teams in action. Here are my predictions for a pair of games on Friday evening.
Indiana 
at Nebraska 
The Hoosiers won their first conference game in their last outing, hosting Minnesota in a 15-point victory. It was Indiana's fourth straight win, improving their overall record to 8-2. This is a nice start, however, it still has a ways to go before a postseason run can become a reality. The Hoosiers played three quality teams at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament and they got blown out by Louisville and Gonzaga, both losses by 16-plus points. Coincidentally, I previewed the game against the Bulldogs and picked Gonzaga to cover for a couple of reasons that still hold up going into Friday's matchup.
Offensively, Indiana is solid in most areas save for one. The Hoosiers are among the most careless teams in the nation, ranking 286th in offensive turnover percentage and 319th in offensive steals. I flagged this issue before their game against the Bulldogs, speculating it would lead to disaster, and sure enough, Gonzaga covered. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 57-39 lead at halftime and never looked back. Defensively, the Hoosiers are decent in most areas, except for causing turnovers and securing boards. Their rebounding percentage was alarmingly low before they played on Thanksgiving, but it has since slightly improved, now ranked 168th in defensive rebounding. That said, since its last loss, Indiana has hardly been challenged, making Friday a revealing test.
The Cornhuskers also sport a pair of losses on their resume, both coming against strong opponents. Nebraska lost to Saint Mary's, 77-74, in mid-November before losing its last game to Michigan State. The Huskers played their worst game of the season the last time they set foot on the court, so they are undoubtedly eager to make up for it. In between these two losses, Nebraska traveled to Omaha and soundly defeated Creighton, 74-63, so this team is significantly better than what it showed in East Lansing last weekend.
The Huskers' strength lies on the defensive side of the court, where they rank 33rd in efficiency and well above average in most categories. Their best trait, however, is their ability to cause havoc, ranking 25th in defensive turnover percentage and 31st in defensive steals. This is a useful skill in any matchup, but it has a much bigger payoff when playing against an incredibly sloppy team like the Hoosiers. Nebraska isn't quite as effective when it has the ball, but it still ranks high in a couple of key categories, 65th in offensive turnover percentage and 30th in free-throw attempt rate. The former should help ensure that the home team wins the turnover margin on Friday.
On paper, Nebraska ranks lower than Indiana in the overall efficiency standings; however, the matchup looks a bit different when factoring in the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The Huskers appear to have all the tools to get the job done. I'm laying the points with the home team.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over. Both head coaches have consistently pushed their teams to run up and down the court, and this year is no exception. Indiana ranks 39th in adjusted tempo with Nebraska just a bit further down at 83rd. Also, both teams have a high rate of free-throw attempts and a high make percentage from the charity stripe, giving us another avenue for points. Indiana allowed exactly 89 points in both of its losses, so I'm betting we'll see a lot of points on Friday night, one way or another.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska -4.5 and Over 153
South Dakota State 
at Colorado 
The Jackrabbits have won six of 10 games against D-1 opponents this season, not terrible, but they don't have any notable wins, either. South Dakota State had an opportunity to beat Boise State in the Cayman Islands during Feast Week, but it lost by a single point. More recently, the Jackrabbits traveled to Reno a couple of days ago and lost to Nevada, 77-63. Now, they must head to Boulder and play a similar caliber of opponent.
The Buffaloes, meanwhile, have won seven of nine games, including a noteworthy win over Connecticut at the Maui Invitational. Colorado lost its other two games at the tournament, but for what it's worth, they came against good teams, Michigan State and Iowa State.
In hindsight, it's easy to see why Colorado lost to Iowa State. The Cyclones have a well-deserved reputation for a relentless defense that generates turnovers like few other teams, and this is undoubtedly Colorado's Achilles' heel. The Buffaloes rank 333rd in offensive turnover percentage and 307th in offensive steals, giving us a team that is likely to struggle against aggressive defensive teams. Luckily for Colorado, South Dakota State plays a decisively cautious style of defense. The Jackrabbits rank 322nd in defensive turnover percentage and 344th in defensive steals, two stats that suggest Colorado will likely get off a shot on most of its possessions. This is critical to the Buffaloes' success because they're knocking down 40 percent of their shots from behind the arc, so they can likely bury the Jackrabbits presuming the home team maintains its rhythm from long-distance.
The Buffaloes are proving to be a fine defensive team this year, ranking 57th in efficiency, 66th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 44th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 43rd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. High marks nearly across the board. Colorado isn't causing much mayhem, but the opponents' field goal percentages suggest it's still forcing difficult shots, giving us a solid defensive team, all things considered. South Dakota State isn't particularly good at scoring, ranking 139th in efficiency, and while it's decent at collecting offensive boards, Colorado is comparatively better on the defensive glass, completely negating what might normally be a small advantage for the visiting team. The Jackrabbits are making under 32 percent of their shots from behind the arc, leaving them with few scoring options.
Colorado is far from perfect, but it's already proven that it can beat any team in the country on its best day. And outside of elite opponents, the Buffaloes have already defeated lesser teams by double-digits on several occasions. It might take the last 10 minutes for the home team to pull away, but I believe Colorado will once again win by double-digits by the time the clock hits zero. I'm laying the points with the Buffaloes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -8.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Nebraska -4
- Indiana at Nebraska - Over 153
- Colorado -8.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
