This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The final Saturday college hoops slate of the regular season is inevitably a great one, loaded with interesting and consequential matchups all day. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off later on Saturday.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Ohio State 
at Indiana 
The key to this pick is Indiana's frontcourt presence and Ohio State's lack of one. This is immediately most obvious when simply looking at the lineups. The Hoosiers are the 11th tallest team in the nation, per KenPom's average height data, with the Buckeyes coming in at 253rd. Naturally, the game results reflect this difference in size.
When Ohio State has the ball, it typically relies on three-point shooting and free-throw attempts for its offensive production. Since the conference season started, two-pointers account for under 49 percent of Ohio State's total points, the second-lowest percentage in the Big Ten. Comparatively, it has the fifth-highest free-throw attempt rate and sixth-highest three-point percentage, knocking down 35 percent against conference opponents. The problem for the road team is that Indiana has been relatively effective at guarding both the perimeter and limiting free-throw attempts. For the whole season, Indiana ranks 93rd in free-throw attempt rate allowed, and it has held opponents to under 33 percent on three-point attempts (106th). Overall, each team has performed at a similar level at this end of the court, with Ohio State's offense and Indiana's defense both ranking ninth in efficiency during the Big Ten conference season. Even still, Indiana's defense outranks the former in effective field goal percentage and rebounding, two key areas that make a difference in any game. Also, I should note that few teams suffer from as many self-inflicted wounds as the Buckeyes. They rank 348th in non-steal turnover percentage and last in the Big Ten, suggesting most of their giveaways are unforced errors, to an extreme extent in this case.
When Indiana has the ball, it hasn't always shot it consistently well, but its physical size has allowed it to earn several quality wins. During the Big Ten conference season, the Hoosiers had the seventh-highest offensive rebounding percentage and ninth-highest free-throw attempt rate, which are the two weakest areas of Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes had the fifth-worst defensive rebounding percentage and worst free-throw attempt rate allowed. The other important note for Ohio State's defense is that it's better at guarding the perimeter than the interior, which doesn't mean as much in this matchup. The Buckeyes are holding Big Ten opponents to 32 percent from beyond the arc (fourth-best) but are allowing 54 percent from inside the arc (12th), which is good news for the Hoosiers because they score most of their total points inside the arc, 54 percent to be precise, the second-highest percentage in the conference. Ohio State's defense has the slight edge in efficiency, ranking 50th compared to 61st for Indiana's offense, although the Hoosiers appear well-equipped to take advantage of the matchup.
The last time these two teams clashed, Indiana won by a point in overtime at Columbus on Jan. 17. The final score was close, but it's worth noting that Indiana dominated the second-half before Ohio State made an improbable last-minute comeback to send it into overtime. The Hoosiers led by 10 points with under four minutes remaining, giving them a 93 percent chance of winning the game, per KenPom. Regardless of the outcome last time around, Saturday's game will be at Assembly Hall, with the stakes as high as ever for both teams. Based on Indiana's strengths and how it matches up against Ohio State, I like the home team's odds of winning. I'm taking the Hoosiers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Indiana -2
New to the world of college basketball betting? Review our college basketball betting promos to get the best deals for new customers.
Texas A&M 
at LSU
The Aggies ended their four-game losing streak in glorious fashion, taking down the Auburn Tigers by 11 points and handing the first-place team only its third loss of the season. Now, they head down to Baton Rouge to take on an opponent that pales in comparison.
LSU has lost 14 of 17 conference games, including its last four. It has also dealt with minor injuries recently. Forward Corey Chest, the team's leading and best rebounder, has missed the previous two games, and guard Vyctorious Miller, who had started in his last five games, missed the recent game against Kentucky. Even if LSU is fully healthy, the Aggies are a matchup nightmare on paper.
Defensively, the Tigers have the second-worst efficiency rating in the SEC conference season. It doesn't cause turnovers, posting the third-worst percentage, but the biggest red flag is its inability to clean up on the glass. LSU has the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the SEC and ranks 343rd among all D-1 teams for the whole season. Funny enough, it will go against the team that led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage last year and again this year. It's hard to imagine a more lopsided mismatch. Furthermore, while Texas A&M doesn't have good shooting numbers and tends to give the ball away, these issues are less likely to come into play on Saturday. LSU doesn't typically force turnovers, as mentioned above, and it generously offers second-chance opportunities to opposing teams.
Offensively, the Tigers have struggled just as much, if not more. They, again, have the second-worst efficiency rating in the SEC conference season, and the only notable stat where they don't rank below league average is two-point offense. LSU has made 53 percent of shots inside the arc against SEC opponents, the eighth-best in the league, although Texas A&M is stout in the paint, limiting league opponents to 48 percent on two-point attempts, the third-best mark. This is key because LSU has barely made 31 percent of its three-point attempts, 317th in the nation, so it is likely in trouble if the Aggies' interior defense holds up.
The Tigers have poor marks in most other key categories, including the league-worst free-throw attempt rate and third-worst offensive rebounding percentage. Perhaps the most notable trait of all is its penchant for giving the ball away, ranking 272nd in turnover percentage and 13th in the SEC. This again plays right into the Aggies' hands, as Texas A&M has the highest defensive turnover percentage in the league. The Aggies have the ninth-highest defensive rating among all D-1 teams, so they're a tough defense to crack, anyway you look at it.
Overall, this pick comes down to two simple facts: LSU's weakest area on defense is Texas A&M's strongest on offense, and vice versa. Given a modest spread, I like our chances of seeing Texas A&M build on its massive victory from its last performance. I'm going with the Aggies.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -6.5
Looking for a sportsbook to get started with? Find the best college basketball betting sites and apps for 2025 March Madness.
Houston 
at Baylor 
The Cougars' defense usually gets all the headlines, and for good reason, obviously, although their offensive attack is no joke. They have the 10th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation and are at or near the top of the Big 12 in several key categories. Specifically, during the conference season, Houston ranks second in offensive efficiency and leads the league in turnover and offensive rebounding percentages. The latter deserves extra attention as Baylor's weakest area on defense is on the glass, logging the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage during league play.
The Bears haven't been great on defense, ranking 60th in efficiency, although they are arguably worse than they appear based on their performance when tested. Baylor has played nine opponents with a top-30 offensive rating and has lost all nine, including an earlier clash against Houston. The Bears have also been vulnerable on the perimeter, where they've allowed opponents to make 36 percent of three-point attempts, 288th in the nation. This is the ideal situation for Houston, as it has made a league-leading 38 percent of shots from beyond the arc against Big 12 opponents.
At the other end of the court, Baylor is among the best offensive teams in the Big 12. During the conference season, it ranks fifth in efficiency, fourth in offensive rebounding, and sixth in free-throw attempt rate. The latter might be a key factor in Saturday's game, as Houston's only defensive weakness is its tendency to foul. The Cougars have the fifth-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among Big 12 teams, so this is an area where Baylor can try to take advantage. The Bears have made 77 percent of free-throw attempts during the conference season, so a trip to the charity stripe often pays off.
When these two teams faced off earlier in the season on Feb. 10, Houston won 76-65 at home to cover as 9.5-point favorites as the Over (132.5) cashed. The final score is rather deceiving, as Houston led by over 20 points with five minutes remaining before Baylor made the score look respectable. With the rematch in Waco, I'm betting Baylor's offense will perform a bit better this second time around. I still expect Houston to win. Thus, I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 130.5
Think your team has what it takes to win it all in March Madness? Find College Basketball National Championship Odds and other college basketball futures bets across multiple sportsbooks on RotoWire.
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Indiana -2
- Texas A&M -6.5
- Houston at Baylor - Over 130.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
