March Madness 2025 Preview: Midwest Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament Midwest Region is a balanced powerhouse with multiple teams capable of cutting down the nets. Brian Williams breaks down the favorites and potential upsets that could make some noise.

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

The Midwest Region is top-heavy, as it features the Big 12 champs, a couple of SEC powerhouses and two teams that made deep runs in last year's tournament. Most interesting is that the top two teams -- Houston and Tennessee -- are the two most efficient and hard-nosed defenses in the country, setting up a potential dogfight in the Elite Eight. 

If anyone has a say in preventing that matchup from occurring, it will be Kentucky, who proved to be Tennessee's kryptonite this season by winning both matchups between the schools. If the Wildcats are able to pull off the trifecta, there's no reason to believe they wouldn't have a shot against the Cougars. 

Behind those three schools, Purdue and Clemson are lingering, having each made last season's Elite Eight with Purdue advancing all the way to the championship game. While both have proven capable and have made appearances within this season's top-10, I believe one of them will taste defeat in the First Round. 

Then there's Gonzaga, who may not be quite be the team we've grown accustomed to seeing but is still talented and always capable of making a run. However, the Bulldogs are an 8-seed for a reason, and it would be a shock to see them take down Houston, let alone make a run at their third Final Four. 

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

MIDWEST REGION NCAA TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

No. 1 Houston - The Cougars finished 14-3 in Quad 1 games while sweeping the Big 12 regular season and postseason crowns, losing just one game in conference -- a one-point overtime defeat to Texas Tech. This year's squad is a veteran outfit that plays their traditionally tough defense, ranking second nationally in points allowed and fourth in field-goal percentage allowed. However, they also rank 12th in offensive efficiency, including placing fourth in the nation in three-point shooting at just under 40-percent as a team. They protect the basketball on top of that, finishing in the top-10 in fewest turnovers committed.

No. 2 Tennessee - Tennessee spent five weeks atop the polls earlier this season and defeated each of the three behemoths ahead of it in the SEC standings at least once, including taking down Auburn in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The Volunteers rank 18th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, and they at a much slower pace than their SEC compatriots. But their bread and butter is a lights-out defense that ranks second nationally in defensive efficiency, third in field-goal percentage allowed and first in defending the three. The Vols are led by back-to-back SEC defensive player of the year Zakai Zeigler (13.8 ppg, 7.3 apg, 1.9 spg), who also finished fifth in the nation in assists. 

No. 3 Kentucky - Kentucky has eight wins against the top-15 this season, including a non-conference win over Duke, plus wins over Florida and Tennessee (twice) in conference play. First-year coach Mark Pope favors a deep rotation with six players averaging double figures in scoring and none averaging 30 minutes per contest. While starting guard Jaxson Robinson (13.0 ppg) will miss the tournament due to a wrist injury, the Wildcats still feature seven players that shoot better than 46-percent from the field, are the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation and rank eighth according to KenPom in offensive efficiency. 

No. 4 Purdue - The Boilermakers are coming off an appearance in last season's national title game and were ranked as high as seventh a few weeks ago. They stumbled down the stretch, however, losing six of nine including a blowout loss to Michigan in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. Point guard Braeden Smith (16.1 ppg, 8.7 apg, 4.6 rpg) was voted this season's Big Ten player of the year and finished second in the nation in assists while forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.2 ppg) was the conference's second-leading scorer. 

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MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 Xavier - Led by former Arizona coach Sean Miller, who's in his second stint with the school, Xavier won seven in a row to close out the regular season prior to a two-point loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament to get into the Big Dance. The Musketeers will begin their run in the First Four and feature two stars in senior forward Zach Freemantle (17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and junior guard Ryan Conwell (16.8 ppg, 1.3 spg), who combined to average 34.1 points per game this season. Freemantle began his career pre-pandemic and missed all of last season due to a lingering foot injury. He's proven healthy this season and would love nothing more than to lead his team to a couple of tourney wins before bidding adieu to his collegiate career. 

No. 13 High Point - The Panthers enter the NCAA Tournament with the second-longest winning streak in the nation, currently sitting at 14 games. They are an efficient offensive team, ranked 25th in efficiency according to KenPom and shoot the ball well at just under a 50-percent clip. Led by leading scorer Kesha Giffa (14.8 ppg), Texas Tech transfer D'Maurian Williams (13.5 ppg) and Mississippi State transfer Kimani Hamilton (13.4 ppg), this will be High Point's first opportunity at a Quad 1 game this year. The Panthers have the offense to keep pace with Purdue which will set them up to potentially pull off the stunner. 

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Purdue - The Boilermakers are in a bit of a late-season swoon, though each of those losses have come against Quad 1 opponents. And while Matt Painter's club did make a run to last season's National Championship game, Purdue had been knocked out in the first round twice in the previous three tournaments. Plus Zach Edey isn't walking through that door. They face a red-hot High Point squad in Round 1 with a Clemson team on deck that's played consistently well all year. But that's assuming they survive their matchup with High Point...

FIRST ROUND UPSET

No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue - ...which they won't. I've been alluding to this moment so I may as well come right out and say it -- High Point will pull off the landmark victory for their program and take down Purdue. The Panthers enter the game on fire, having won their last 14, while Purdue enters in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. Both of these teams are among the top-11 nationally in field-goal percentage, but Purdue finished near the bottom of the Big Ten in field-goal percentage allowed, meaning High Point should have no problem putting points on the board. High Point has nothing to lose and if they can remain hot from the field, should have Purdue feeling the heat late, making the Panthers a legitimate threat to advance beyond the Round of 64. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Milos Uzan, G, Houston - Kelvin Sampson's recent Houston squads have all been predicated by hard-nosed guards such as Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser and most recently Jamal Shead. The Cougars were cruising through last year's tournament but fell apart following an injury to Shead during last year's Sweet Sixteen loss to Duke. With Shead's eligibility expired, Sampson needed to find a replacement. Along came Uzan, the Oklahoma transfer who has proven to be a perfect fit for Sampson's system. Uzan took a little while to get fully acclimated, but has become the leader Sampson requires of his point guard. Uzan shoots 42.6 percent from three, is steady with the ball in his hands as one of the best assist-to-turnover performers in the country. Not to mention he plays stellar positional defense. He's not likely to take over any game in the box score, but he's the most important player on the floor and the biggest reason Houston has lost just one game since the calendar turned to 2025. 

MIDWEST REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Houston - The Cougars will face an interesting test in the second round against either Gonzaga or Georgia as you can argue that each have as much talent as any team they'll face throughout their region. But the Cougars are the best defensive squad in the country and as mentally tough as they come, so they should advance with relative ease. 

No. 2 Tennessee - The Volunteers appear to have a clear path to the Sweet 16, as they should cruise over Wofford before a possible matchup against UCLA in which they'd be a large favorite. They also have an X-factor on their side, as coach Rick Barnes -- now in his 10th year at Tennessee, 38th year as a collegiate head coach and 48th year on the sidelines -- may be making his final run. Tennessee would love to send him to his first Final Four appearance since taking Texas in 2003.

No. 3 Kentucky - The Wildcats entered last season's tournament in a similar boat and fell victim in Round 1 to the 14th-seeded Oakland Golden Grizzlies. While many of the names have changed, including their coach, Kentucky should survive Troy and then outclass a Xavier team that will be playing its third game in five days. 

No. 5 Clemson - Clemson is an experienced squad that returns three starters from last year's team that went to the Elite Eight. The Tigers could face a stiff challenge from McNeese State, but that experience should be enough to allow them to survive the first weekend against what I have projected to be a couple of double-digit seeds. 

MIDWEST REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Houston - As always, it's tough for any team to match up with Houston's physicality both inside and out. Milos Uzan, profiled above, is joined by leading scorer LJCryer and Emanuel Sharp (the Big 12 tournament MVP), with all three filling it up from deep at a better-than 42-percent clip. Power forward J'Wan Roberts missed most of the Big 12 tournament due to an ankle injury but is expected to return healthy, leading a group that complements the three-star guards with their hard-nosed play that is a direct reflection of coach Kelvin Sampson. This may be Sampson's best all-around squad since taking over the program in 2014. I'm foreseeing a matchup with Tennessee, who avoids a third loss to Kentucky, setting up a heavyweight matchup between the top two defensive teams in the country that's worthy of a Final Four. Houston will find the mettle to prevail and will take the in-state trek from Houston to San Antonio to reach their second Final Four appearance in five seasons.

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