March Madness 2025 Preview: South Region Picks & Predictions

March Madness 2025 Preview: South Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament South Region features the top overall seed in Auburn and multiple double-digit seeds capable of making a Cinderella run. Jesse Siegel breaks it down and offers his Final Four and upset picks.

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

The No. 1 overall seed in the tournament resides in the South, as Auburn managed a staggering 16 Quadrant I victories this season, navigating a treacherous SEC schedule en route to the regular season crown.  Though the Tigers have lost three of the last four games heading into the big dance, including to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, all losses came against ranked opponents, and the complete body of work was still impressive enough to allow this juggernaut to achieve top billing, both in the tournament as well as the South Region.

A familiar March face is the No. 2 seed in the form of the Michigan State Spartans.  It would not be March Madness without MSU, as the Spartans have made a staggering 27-straight tournaments.  This year's squad exceeded expectations, capturing the regular season crown in the Big Ten before falling to Wisconsin in the semifinals of their conference tourney.

Regarding the lower seeds, it is certainly strange to see the North Carolina Tar Heels as a No. 11 seed in a play-in game, but quite frankly, the Heels are lucky to even be here.  In a down year for the ACC, North Carolina was a putrid 1-11 in Quadrant I contests.  UNC will face another tournament stalwart who was nearly bounced out of the tournament, San Diego State.  Meanwhile, No. 12 UC San Diego will be a Cinderella darling, advancing to the NCAA Tournament in the school's very first season in Division I.  No. 13 Yale is no stranger to the Big Dance, having clinched a spot in the field in three of the last four seasons.  No. 14 Lipscomb is in the tourney for just the second time ever but has been shooting the lights out over the past six weeks.  The classic upset pick will be the 12-5 game; more on those squads and that matchup below.

Let's take a closer look at the players, coaches and matchups that will ultimately decide the fate of the South region.

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

SOUTH REGION NCAA TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

No. 1 Auburn – The Tigers have one of the frontrunners for National Player of the Year in Johni Broome, as well as a deep, uber-talented roster with five players averaging double figures in points.  The Tigers can play any style; Auburn scored 100 points in three games this season, borderline unheard of in college hoops.  However, the Tigers also held the opposition to under 70 points per clash; they beat Arkansas, Georgia and Ole Miss despite scoring 70 or fewer points.

No. 2 Michigan State – The fact that this particular Spartans' squad rose to the No. 2 slot in the region is certainly notable, as not much was expected from this crew to begin the season.  The Spartans pride themselves on defense; while Michigan State does not necessarily have the usual star power, Jase Richardson has come on strong of late to carry the offense.  Also, I would be remiss if I did not mention the coaching here; it might be foolish to bet against Tom Izzo in March.

No. 3 Iowa State – The Cyclones won 15 of their first 16 games of the season, with their lone loss coming by two points against above-referenced Auburn.  Iowa State possesses superior guard-play with Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey.  Unfortunately, the latter two are not healthy, and one or both could be missing or at least not at full strength when the ball tips against Lipscomb.

No. 4 Texas A&M – The Aggies looked to be slipping from relevance down the stretch before beating Auburn at home.  Overall, the Aggies finished 11-7 in the best conference in college basketball, and are led by four-year starter Wade Taylor, something unheard of in this day and age.  A&M is dominant on the boards, averaging 41.2 per tilt, which is sixth in the nation.

MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 12 UC San Diego – If Cinderella could be quantified as a team, it would be the Tritons.  UC San Diego transferred from Division II, and in its first year eligible, the Tritons are going dancing.  UC San Diego relies on the three-point shot as much as any team in the field, which could spell trouble for the opposition.  However, their best player is Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who does most of his damage from inside the arc.  Tatit-Jones leads the team in points, rebounds and assists.  The 6-6 senior from New Zealand is a matchup nightmare, nearly recording triple-doubles in each of the last two Big West Tournament tilts for the Tritons.

No. 13 Yale – The Elis return to the NCAA Tournament for the second-straight season.  The Bulldogs can match the inside toughness of Texas A&M, while four of five starters shoot over 36-percent from three-point range.  Bez Mbeng is dynamic as the floor general, though leading scorer John Poulakidas is the squad's primary offensive catalyst.  Nick Townsend gives the Bulldogs a credible threat in the frontcourt as well.  These upperclassmen have plenty of NCAA Tournament experience, as does their head coach, who has been at the helm of the program since 1999.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 3 Iowa State – The Cyclones had a sensational start to the year, but injuries have severely dampened expectations for Iowa State.  The two best players on the squad may not be at full strength heading into the tourney, or even able to take the floor.  Tamin Lipsey has been in and out of the lineup, while Keshon Gilbert recently injured his knee.  Lipsey exited earlier in the Big 12 Tournament with a groin issue.  With both guards gimpy, the Cyclones could be on high upset alert.

Want to see how the latest injuries might affect the top pickups in college basketball? Head on over to RotoWire's college basketball injury report.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan – For the record, I almost don't consider these 12-5 trap games as upsets anymore.  Or the 11-6 games for that matter.  However, in terms of seeding, these contests are still classified as upsets.  After winning the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan will be a chic pick to advance far in this region, if not upset Auburn in the Sweet 16.  Head Coach Dusty May has already been to the Final Four with FAU, including with his starting center Vladislav Goldin.  However, the Tritons come into this matchup with the nation's longest active winning streak, having won 15-straight contests, and all but two of them were by double-digits.  One of the higher scoring teams in the nation, the Tritons shoot almost 30 three-pointers per contest, and as we know, the triple is the great equalizer in the NCAA Tournament.  UC San Diego is thrilled to just be here, but it should also be viewed as a dangerous foe for the Wolverines.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Kam Jones, G, Marquette – The Golden Eagles have lost three of the last four games heading into the Big Dance, but two of those losses came against St. John's, and the third was against UConn on the road.  Marquette beat Wisconsin and Purdue earlier this season, though has been a tad inconsistent during the second half of the season.  Still, it takes just one tremendous player to get hot at the right time to turn a squad's fortunes around.  Enter Jones, who did a little bit of everything for the Golden Eagles this season.  He averaged 19.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists on the year; Jones had a triple-double in the aforementioned triumph over Purdue. He will have his work cut out for him against Donovan Dent and No. 10 New Mexico in the first round, but Jones is capable of putting Marquette on his back and putting the entire region in flux.

SOUTH REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Auburn – The second-round matchup with either Louisville or Creighton is certainly no walk in the park, but the talent, pedigree and toughness of the Tigers will simply be too much, and Auburn should cruise to the Sweet 16.

No. 12 UC San Diego – There has to be at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16.  The Tritons epitomize what March Madness is all about.  If there is any program in this region that can wear Cinderella's glass slipper, it's UC San Diego, which could ride the wave behind stellar three-point shooting.

No. 6 Ole Miss – Playing a tough SEC slate should give the Rebels an advantage against either UNC or San Diego State.  Drawing a banged-up Iowa State squad in round two also favors Ole Miss.

No. 2 Michigan State – That second-round clash with either Marquette or New Mexico should be a doozy, but the Spartans will ultimately prevail.  MSU has an intriguing combination of toughness on the boards and unselfishness on offense.

SOUTH REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Auburn – While the Duke Blue Devils can make a case here, the Tigers have been the most consistent and battle-tested squad during the 2024-2025 college basketball season.  The SEC managed an absurd 14 teams in the tournament this season, which set the NCAA record by three schools.  However, it is unlikely the Tigers will have to face another SEC squad until the Sweet 16 (Texas A&M), or perhaps not even until the Final Four.  While there are certainly some solid teams in the South, the No. 2 through No. 4 squads could be viewed as the weakest in all the regions.  As fun as it is to pick upsets, it appears best not to overthink it when it comes to this particular region.  Auburn should cut down the nets in the South and advance to Final Four behind Johni Broome, coach Bruce Pearl and a tough, talented, experienced squad that played an outrageous 21 Quadrant I contests and won most of them.

Take advantage of the best March Madness betting promos to maximize your potential earnings in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.