Sweet 16 Preview: West Region

Sweet 16 Preview: West Region

This article is part of our Sweet 16 Preview series.

Midwest Region
West Region
East Region
South Region

Site: Anaheim
Tip-off: Thursday

As crazy as the first two days of the NCAA tournament seemed, the Round of 32 mostly went with the higher seed. That was certainly true in the West Region. Murray State eliminated five-seed Marquette, but was not competitive against Florida State. Gonzaga, Michigan and Texas Tech all strolled into the Sweet 16, but each team will find some resistance in the next round. On the top half, we have a rematch from last season's Sweet 16. On the bottom, we have the two most defensively efficient teams.

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Florida State

Key Matchup: Both teams are stocked in the frontcourt, but the success of the Zags will depend on its guards' ability to make baskets. In the loss last year, Zach Norvell was just 4-of-16 from the field on his way to 14 points. Norvell also found baskets hard to come by in the WCC championship game against St. Mary's. The Seminoles will try to smother Norvell with long wings, and the 6-5 sophomore will need to overcome.

Gonzaga will Win IF: Along with Norvell, Josh Perkins and Geno Crandall will have to play effectively against their bigger counterparts. Gonzaga has not matched up against many teams with similar or bigger size. The guards will have to play with poise and the forwards will have to convert when opportunities arise. Killian Tillie has not played more than 18 minutes, but he could bring

Midwest Region
West Region
East Region
South Region

Site: Anaheim
Tip-off: Thursday

As crazy as the first two days of the NCAA tournament seemed, the Round of 32 mostly went with the higher seed. That was certainly true in the West Region. Murray State eliminated five-seed Marquette, but was not competitive against Florida State. Gonzaga, Michigan and Texas Tech all strolled into the Sweet 16, but each team will find some resistance in the next round. On the top half, we have a rematch from last season's Sweet 16. On the bottom, we have the two most defensively efficient teams.

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Florida State

Key Matchup: Both teams are stocked in the frontcourt, but the success of the Zags will depend on its guards' ability to make baskets. In the loss last year, Zach Norvell was just 4-of-16 from the field on his way to 14 points. Norvell also found baskets hard to come by in the WCC championship game against St. Mary's. The Seminoles will try to smother Norvell with long wings, and the 6-5 sophomore will need to overcome.

Gonzaga will Win IF: Along with Norvell, Josh Perkins and Geno Crandall will have to play effectively against their bigger counterparts. Gonzaga has not matched up against many teams with similar or bigger size. The guards will have to play with poise and the forwards will have to convert when opportunities arise. Killian Tillie has not played more than 18 minutes, but he could bring some much needed size to battle Jean Marc Christ Koumadje and Mfiondu Kabengele.

Florida State will Win IF: They continue to defend at a high level. Even with Ja Morant hitting three-pointers early in the Round of 32 game, the Seminoles did not give up much else. As long as Morant was driving to the basket and getting his teammates involved, the Seminoles won the situation. Florida State has the 10th best defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and it can cover both the perimeter and paint adequately. In addition, Kabengele has given the team instant offense off the bench in the Big Dance with 43 points on 22 attempts in the wins.

Player to Watch: Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga – While Rui Hachimura has been given more national plaudits and named to the All-American team, Clarke has been the better two-way player. The San Jose State transfer is coming off a career-high 36 points in the win over Baylor. Clarke is hitting nearly 70 percent of his field goals on his way to 17.0 points. He is also a good rebounder, who won't be intimidated by the Florida State trees in the paint.

Prediction: The year may be different, but the result will be the same. As shown by their upward trend in the seeds (Gonzaga was a four last season, Florida State a nine), both teams are better. Koumadje and Kabengele will make life miserable in the paint for the slightly smaller Zag forwards. Terrance Mann will help with offense and can drive to the basket against almost any opponent. The team could also rally around Phil Cofer, who has been battling a foot injury and lost his father after the first round win over Vermont.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Key Matchup: Can the Red Raiders get the Wolverines to commit some turnovers? Per KenPom, Michigan gives up the third-least turnovers in the country on offense, and the Texas Tech defense forces turnovers at the 11th-best rate. While coach Chris Beard is loath to get his team to run and gun, some forced turnovers may lead to easier baskets for the three-seed because the Wolverine defense would not be allowed to get set up.

Michigan Will win IF: They knock down their three-pointers. On the season, Michigan hit 35.0 percent of its treys. In their five losses, Michigan converted just 29.7 percent from long range. The Red Raiders generally do not allow many open shots of any variety and they are 16th in the country against three-pointers. The Wolverines have shot well against other tough defenses and will need to do so again to make the Elite Eight.

Texas Tech Will win IF: Jarrett Culver gets help. The 6-5 sophomore has been a reliable source of points for Texas Tech. He is averaging 18.8 points and has scored 25.5 points in his last four games. With the Michigan defense focusing on him, the Red Raiders will need another player to step up. Matt Mooney is capable of scoring as shown by his previous season with South Dakota and Davide Moretti has scored in double digits in nine straight games.

Player to Watch: Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan Wolverines. The 6-7 freshman has stepped right into Mo Wagner's shoes and the Wolverines have not missed a beat. He was held to five points in the win over Florida on Saturday, which was just the second time in 2019 Brazdeikis had been to single-digit scoring that Michigan had won. He was only held below 10 points in consecutive games twice. The forward will bounce back and may even score 20 points.

Prediction: While I am primarily known as a flip-flopper who will change his opinion at the drop of a hat (or a three-pointer), I am going to stick with the prediction I made last week. Michigan is known for innovative defenses designed by assistant coach Luke Yaklich. They Wolverines will likely make life difficult for Jarrett Culver, who is the head of the Red Raiders. There will be no easy baskets for either team, but Michigan will put in slightly more points in the defensive struggle.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Perry Missner
Missner covered college basketball for RotoWire. A veteran fantasy sports writer, he once served on the executive board for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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