College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 10

Chris' Picks

It's comical at this point. Maybe I can convince Greg to make 10 picks and I just sit out the rest of the season? Let's see where I can apply the kiss of death this week.

Navy -27 at Connecticut (Friday)

This is a big number to cover for an option offense. But UConn got its FBS win last week over UMass, and Navy is rolling, having scored 40-plus points in four games and 34 or more two other times, posting a 5-2 ATS mark in the process. Navy also has held three opponents to 10 or fewer points, and a fourth to 17. The Huskies average 21.6 points per game, while allowing 48 or more three times, giving up 284.7 yards per game on the ground in those three. Navy has been held under that number once all year. The Midshipmen should rush for 350-plus and a plethora of scores, while grinding clock and limiting the Huskies' chances.

Florida International -17.5 vs. Old Dominion

Most weeks, we can pick on UConn, Akron and UMass, but the Monarchs haven't gotten that love as a bottom feeder. Yes, they battled UVA and Virginia Tech in September, but I'm not sure how impressive that actually is. Their only win to date is over Norfolk State, by three points, a game where they scored a season-high 24 points. They've topped 20 just once since, have given up 31 or more in three straight and been held to just three points in two of their last four. I have no clue what to make of the 55 points FIU gave up last week to MTSU, as it's given up only 40 in its previous three. But I expect Butch Davis' team to bounce back in a big way here against a bad opponent. (Unofficially, I'd absolutely take Bowling Green -6 vs. Akron, and Liberty -23.5 at UMass.)

North Carolina -2.5 vs. Virginia

Virginia has problems on both sides of the ball. Offensively, RB Wayne Taulapapa has only five runs of at least 10 yards while leading receiver Joe Reed averages 9.0 yards per carry. QB Bryce Perkins hurt his knee last Saturday, and thanks to poor offensive line play, he's topped 3.8 yards  per carry just once. The Cavaliers have lost three of four, averaging 16.7 points per game and only outgained Duke by 57 yards in a blowout win in between. Defensively, they are without star CB Bryce Hall, and looked incredibly slow in allowing 227 yards rushing to Louisville last week. Further, they'll be without linebacker Jordan Mack for a half after last week's targeting ejection. Louisville ran right at freshman Nick Jackson, and UNC will too. The Heels jump out early, and UVA can't keep up.

Georgia -6.5 vs. Florida

A weird line here, as it opened at six, promptly fell to 4.5, and has now risen back above the original number, while the total has dropped from 48 to 44.5. Georgia's defense has been brilliant, allowing 74 points in seven games (10.6 ppg), surrendering 20 points just once. The offense is laboring, scoring 21 or less in three of four, but it remains true to its ground and pound ways, running 40 times or more five times. That seems like a recipe for success against the Gators, who have allowed 217.5 yards per game and five touchdowns on the ground to LSU and South Carolina. It's not going to be pretty, but steady running, sound defense and a timely play action will lead UGA to a safe, low scoring win.

Mississippi State -7.5 at Arkansas

Arkansas is 1-20 in SEC play since the start of 2017, with 40 percent of those loses coming at or under seven points. The Razorbacks allowed 226.7 rushing yards per game to five SEC opponents, a number skewed by the 89 yards A&M put up against them a week after a close loss to Auburn and still figuring out their RB rotation sans Jashaun Corbin. Mississippi State doesn't inspire confidence, but it's coming off a four-week high in points and rushing yards. A near repeat should be enough to beat the Razorbacks, who are in a spot to allow Alabama to beat them twice, as the physical dominance from a loss to the Tide typically carries over.

Last week: 1-4; Season: 17-29-1

GREG'S PICKS

You know that feeling when you start the week 0-3 and suddenly your final two games carry the weight of you entire week? Yeah, me neither. Coincidentally, I lost my first three games last week and won my final two. Making matters worse, I was just flat-out wrong on my impressions of almost every team involved in those first three games. Minnesota did not sleep on Maryland and the 'Terps are worse than I thought. Illinois did not suffer a hangover and Purdue hadn't figured anything out. I still think I have Iowa pegged properly, there's no offense there, but I underestimated how bad Northwestern is this season. As for the wins, I read them perfectly. Indiana continued to move the ball and score plenty of points and the 'Tide responded to Tua's injury exactly how I thought they would. 

Over (71) UCF vs Houston

My first instinct was to side with UCF, but upon further review, I found that the Cougars have been pretty scrappy since D'Eriq King went on an extended vacation and UCF isn't really blowing-out teams at a high rate this season. It's especially impressive that the Cougars have hung in there, because no one would have blamed them for throwing in the towel after their all-everything QB left them hanging. As for UCF, the offense is as sharp as ever, but the defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of its last five games. Houston allows more than 30 points per game and this is the best offense it will face all year, which means UCF is scoring 40 at minimum.            

Indiana (-11.5) vs Northwestern 

It's funny how one week can completely change your impression of a team. Just last week I sided with Northwestern because I was sure the 'Cats could muck up their game just enough to cover a 10-point spread against Iowa. A week later, and I've lost all faith in that team's ability to score enough points to keep this game close. Indiana, meanwhile, just continues to impress. The Hoosiers went on the road and took down a determined Nebraska team and they are now already bowl eligible. What I like about their results, however, is how they've completely shut down teams with bad offense this season. They held Rutgers scoreless and they held Connecticut to only three points.            

Illinois (-20) vs Rutgers 

What am I missing here? Perhaps this is the spot where Illinois suffers a hangover? Perhaps Rutgers found some mojo last week when it protected its house against powerhouse Liberty? Please, help me out here. OK, so the Fighting Illini aren't exactly trustworthy, but they've been might impressive over the last two weeks and they were supposed to be improved this season, maybe it just took a while. Rutgers, meanwhile, is still a train wreck. Sure, the Scarlett Knights scored 44 last week, but it was at home…against Liberty. Further cementing my case, Illinois needs two wins to become bowl eligible and there are no gimmies left, with the possible exception of Northwestern at the end of the season.    

USC (+4.5) vs Oregon

Somewhere along the line, it seems like the public perception of USC change to one of a failed team, but when you look at the schedule, the Trojans have only one bad loss. To their credit, however, they have one very impressive win, against Utah. That win could prove pivotal as the Trojans are tied atop the Pac-12 South with, you guessed it, Utah. To keep their conference championship hopes alive, they'll have to win this game. Oregon is also playing for the Pac-12 championship and possibly more, and while I expect the Ducks to show well, I think this game will come down to the wire, and in that case, I'll take anything over a FG.        

Florida (+6) vs Georgia 

I can't quite explain it, maybe it's the Feleipe Franks effect, but I've been slow to get on board with the Gators this season. After watching how they hung in there with LSU a couple weeks ago though, I've come around. That and, you know, Franks isn't under center. This pick, though, has more to do with Georgia and something that I just can't put my finger on. Yes, the Bulldogs suffered an inexcusable loss to South Carolina, but something has just felt off about them all season. The fact that they couldn't get much separation from Kentucky the following week, monsoon notwithstanding, didn't help that impression. I'm not sure Florida wins, but it keeps this game close.      

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 22-22-2