Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Duke's Mayo Bowl Best Bet
One of the two final bowl games of this season (the playoff games aren't "bowl games" in any real sense of the concept) will end with a guy getting mayonnaise dumped on his head. So, you know, there's that. Mississippi State is one of the 5-7 teams that got a bowl spot because of teams opting out, but that doesn't mean this won't be an interesting game down in Charlotte. Here's the lowdown on the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
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Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Duke's Mayo Bowl Odds
Spread: Mississippi State -3 (Caesars Sportsbook), Wake Forest +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Under 53.5 (BetRivers Sportsbook), Over 52.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Mississippi State -150 (BetRivers), Wake Forest +136 (DraftKings)
Yes, 5-7 Mississippi State is a favorite over 8-4 Wake Forest. A slight favorite, sure, but a favorite nonetheless. Is that SEC bias? ACC cynicism? A matter of opt-outs? Or, perhaps, is Mississippi State the slightly better team? Let's dive into it.
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Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Duke's Mayo Bowl Betting Picks
Well, in terms of SP+, the Demon Deacons rank 55th and the Bulldogs rank…54th. That's neck-and-neck right there! Mississippi State has the offensive advantage, Wake Forest has the defensive advantage, and the biggest advantage (at least in terms of SP+) is Mississippi State's in special teams. However, there's also the fact that the Bulldogs lost seven of their eight conference games. Though the Bulldogs did have good wins against Southern Mississippi and Arizona State early in the season, down the stretch, a three-point win over Arkansas was the only victory. It's not like Mississippi State was losing close games week in and week out, either.
On the flip side, the Demon Deacons beat SMU, Virginia, and Conference USA champs Kennesaw State. They had a couple bad losses, but only lost to Georgia Tech by one point. Also, Wake Forest won six of its last eight games. Recent form is in favor of Wake.
Of course, then there are the guys who will actually be there. Wake Forest will likely be without top running back Demond Claiborne and top receiver Micah Mays and Chris Barnes. Actually, Barnes is already off the roster, so that one is locked in. Defensive lineman Mateen Ibirogba will also be missing from this one.
Mississippi State will have the delightfully-named running back duo of Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell, as well as the less-imaginatively-named Anthony Evans at wide receiver. True freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor, a real running threat, will be getting the start. That's a move with an eye toward the future from the Mississippi State staff. The Bulldogs won't have former defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler, because he was fired. Usually doesn't bode well for a bowl team to have fired a coordinator.
The fact Taylor, and not Blake Shapen, is starting for Mississippi State puts me over the edge on Wake Forest. If I get points and I get the team with the good defense facing a true freshman quarterback with one start to his name, I like that option.
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State Duke's Mayo Bowl Best Bet: Wake Forest +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Duke's Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Betting Predictions
This could end up being a low-scoring game, given that Wake Forest's defense ranks 33rd in SP+ and Mississippi State is starting a true freshman under center who completed 54.5 percent of his passes in limited action during the regular season. Also, given that the Demon Deacons will be shorthanded in terms of weapons on offense. That being said, Mississippi State has allowed a whopping 189.5 rushing yards per contest. If quarterback Robby Ashford and likely lead back Ty Clark can get it going for Wake Forest, it should be able to secure the win, and the mayonnaise dowsing for head coach Jake Dickert.
Wake Forest 27, Mississippi State 20
Duke's Mayo Bowl Player Props for Friday, January 2
Robby Ashford, QB, Wake Forest: Over 48.5 rushing yards (HardRock Sportsbook)
On six occasions this season, Ashford rushed for more than 48.5 yards. Once he got to 44, and once he got to 42, both of which I would say are in shouting distance of that number. That was with Claiborne around, and he's declared for the NFL Draft. Mississippi State had the worst run defense in the SEC, and it was on the level of UCLA's much-scorned run defense, to put things into perspective. If Ashford wants to run the ball, he should get over 48.5 yards on the ground.
Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State: Under 216.5 passing yards (HardRock Sportsbook)
Taylor should also be able to do some damage with his legs, because running is his one skill that has clearly translated to FBS football thus far. However, he has literally never thrown for 200 yards in a game, much less 217. Wake Forest doesn't have an elite pass defense, but it has managed to stay under a certain threshold of success. The Demon Deacons have allowed 199.7 passing yards per game, making them one of the teams holding opponents under 200. Again, that's not all that close to 217 yards all things considered.
