College Football DFS Picks: DraftKings CFP Saturday Slate

CFB DFS: DraftKings College Football DFS

Welcome back for our DraftKings College Football DFS breakdown for Saturday's CFP action. We've got three games on this slate, so our strategy will be a little different than what we deployed for those 12-game slates during the season. One of these games -- Texas A&M vs Miami -- should be worthy of a playoff game. The others...probably tuneups for the higher seeds as Ole Miss is favored by 17.5 vs Tulane and Oregon checks in as 21.0-point favorites vs James Madison.

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

This is the section where I usually give a quick way to cut through the noise and find a handful of games to build around on a 12-game slate. A three-gamer changes that. As we mentioned, there are two expected blowouts and one game that could go either way. 

Let's unpack all of the sides.

• Ole Miss (TT 37.0): Vegas expects the Rebs to cruise here. They averaged 37.3 points per game this season, 38.8 at home, and 45.3 vs Non-Con. That includes 45 against Tulane back in September. According to CFB ombudsman Bill Connelly, Ole Miss is playing against the worst team to ever make the CFP in Tulane. Sure, there have been enough off-field distractions to warrant a Bravo show in Oxford, but the dust has settled and the Rebs will be ready to roll. Big spread here implies that this won't be Trinidad Chambliss' busiest day through the air. Kewan Lacy will likely get whatever he wants on the ground, but if Ole Miss has this game on ice, it'll likely put him in the cooler too and try to get him to 100 percent for the next round. All told, some depth pieces might be of interest here, especially in the backfield.
• Oregon (TT 34.0): Like the Rebs, the Ducks are huge home favorites this weekend against a likely overmatched opponent. Vegas has Oregon favored by even more than it does Ole Miss, as the Ducks will have to win by more than three touchdowns to cash this cover. The Ducks were slightly more prolific than Ole Miss was offensively, pouring on 38.2 points per game. However, JMU's defense rates significantly better than that of Tulane's (27th per SP+) so it makes sense that Oregon's team total lags just a bit behind its season average. JMU will play tough defense, but it's not hard to envision Oregon landing some haymakers and pulling away in the second half.
• Texas A&M (TT 25.75): Both A&M and Miami hold the opposition to low play volumes thanks to suffocating defense, especially on third down. A&M will face a Miami defense that ranked 10th in 3rd down conversion % allowed. The Aggies have largely been great on offense, though. Keyed by Marcel Reed, A&M ranks 8th in offensive SP+ and averaged 36.3 points per game. That number dropped a little vs ranked opponents (32.0) in a three-game sample. The offense should get a bump in the ground game, provided Le'Veon Moss returns as expected.
• Miami (TT 22.75): Miami's offense lags a little behind A&M's at #16 in SP+. It's a balanced offense that throws it 47% of the time and is at its best when it's pressing that issue. The run game is middling (4.2 YPC, 77th) but is good at finishing drives with 23 rushing scores. It's not explosive, though, as Miami's seven runs of 20+ yards ranked 123rd in FBS. All this to say, Miami needs a big game out of Carson Beck and Malachi Toney. That's key because A&M gave up 25 pass plays of at least 25 yards (89th).
• Tulane (TT 19.5): Tulane's got a big hill to climb here. On one hand, the Wave has already seen what the Rebs bring to the table on defense. On the other hand, that Rebel defense suffocated Tulane, holding it to 10 points. Jake Retzlaff had a particularly rough day, going 5-for-17 before being replaced by Brendan Sullivan late in the game. Tulane theoretically could get the ground game going here -- the Wave averaged 4.6 YPC this year and racked up 26 rushing scores -- considering Ole Miss is middling against the run. However, a hot start from Ole Miss' offense would take that off the table. I'm dubious about Tulane's offense doing much here.
• James Madison (TT 13.25): A 13.25 implied total...woof. This is, unfortunately, a brutal matchup for what JMU likes to do offensively. They ran the hell out of the ball this year, averaging 245.7 rushing yards per game, but they also played one of the weakest schedules in the country. They won't be able to do to Oregon what they did to, say, Georgia Southern. Quarterback Alonza Barnett's 10-for-25 night against Troy in the Sun Belt Championship does not inspire a ton of confidence, either. JMU's defense is going to need to give a Herculean effort because it's difficult to see the Dukes' offense pushing for 20 points here.

Quarterbacks

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss ($8,200) vs Tulane

You're paying a premium here but $8,200 is still a bargain relative to Chambliss' previous listings, where he's been north of $9K each of his last three outings. Sure, there's the game theory aspect on a slate like this where Chambliss will be extremely chalky, so fading him could get you some leverage if he somehow flops. I just highly doubt that will be the case. If anything, Saturday's slate could be about who makes the best Chambliss lineup. The separator might be getting the right Ole Miss receiver in your lineup. 

Carson Beck, Miami ($7,200) at Texas A&M

I'm big on Beck this week. This sets up well for a big day through the air for him. As we noted, Texas A&M is highly susceptible to explosive plays through the air. Luckily, Beck can make them pay for that in his own right, and having playmakers like Malachi Toney and a healthy CJ Daniels will only help his cause.

This game should be pretty back-and-forth, so we can feel good about Beck pushing for a high pass attempt volume. And if you tuned out on Miami after the SMU game, you missed some of Beck's best performances. In his last four games, Beck completed 79.5% of his passes at a 10.0 YPA clip to go with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio. 

Lastly, Miami projects to struggle on the ground here. The rushing attack averaged 3.88 YPC in conference play. Leveling up to face A&M's run defense won't help matters. Miami's game plan will rest on Beck's shoulders. I'm not sure if that should make 'Canes fans nervous or not, but I think we get a good fantasy outing out of him regardless.

Running Backs

Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss ($7,800) vs Tulane

Lacy is close to a must-play. You can pony up the $7,800 for Lacy and hunt for a bargain with your other running back spot(s) and still make a strong lineup. Lacy finished second in the nation in rushing touchdowns (20) and is in a great spot here against the worst rushing defense on the slate by far. 

Maybe you're a little worried about the volume projection if Ole Miss pulls away. That's fair. But he's not going to need much more than 10-12 carries to do the necessary amount of damage. I don't put any stock into his 18 for 68 and a touchdown performance against Tulane in the first matchup. Tulane wasn't ready for the onslaught that Trinidad Chambliss was about to bring in his second start. 

It's a little tricky to find a good Ole Miss backup running back. Lacy ate up 52 percent of the rushing share during the season and Chambliss accounted for 25 percent. Shakai Mills-Knight's share is juiced by getting some run against Citadel. Logan Diggs ($4,100) might be the next guy up if Ole Miss starts to rest Lacy late in the game, but that puts him in GPP-only consideration.

Oregon backfield

The Ducks' RBs are priced up thanks to the matchup, with Noah Whittington ($7,000) and Jordon Davison ($6,400) leading the way. Don't be deterred by James Madison's rush defense metrics; they essentially don't apply in this matchup. JMU did hold Louisville -- its only P4 opponent -- to 113 yards on 3.77 YPC. Louisville was a mediocre rushing team, though, while Oregon ranked 13th in RuYD/G. 

Oregon splits its carries up between four backs. Whittington paces the group with a 29 percent share while Davison and Jayden Limar ($4,000) both have 19 percent shares. Then there's Dierre Hill ($4,500) at 13 percent. All of these guys have explosive per-carry averages, too.

Whittington, a senior,  is the volume play. Davison (13 rushing touchdowns) is the goal-line guy at 236 pounds. He punched in 12 red zone scores this season.  If I'm playing multiple lineups, I'm trying to get equal exposure to these two backs. There's a way to play both, but you'll likely have to sacrifice elsewhere, like fading Lacy. 

If you're looking for a tournament play, I think it's Dierre Hill. He averaged 8.2 YPC on 59 attempts and punched in four touchdowns. He could get some burn late in this game. It's a bit of a concern for his role that Jayden Limar is back after a long absence because Oregon could opt to get him some live reps before the quarterfinals. We're gonna have to thread the needle to hit value with Hill, but the blowout potential plus his own explosiveness give him some appeal. 

Girard Pringle, Miami ($5,500)

Pringle will be popular given the price, role, and game script. JMU's Wayne Knight ($6,100) has been awesome all year but it's hard to imagine the Dukes getting much traction on the ground. Pringle, meanwhile, has started to take over in the Miami backfield. He ran well in Mark Fletcher's absence in November and the two of them split the work in the season finale.

Pringle is easily the most explosive of the Miami running backs, averaging 6.24 YPC while no other Cane averages more than 4.9. I still expect Miami to emphasize the passing game Saturday, but Pringle projects to get double-digit carries against an Aggie rush defense that is good-not-great.

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 12% team target share who also average at least 8.0 yards per target. I also narrowed the sample to Week 10 through Week 14 to get a healthy sample while also giving weight to players who are clicking right now. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Malachi Toney, Miami ($6,900) at Texas A&M

Toney was an interesting omission from the target cheat sheet. Pay no mind, Toney is the best receiver on this slate for a reason. Over the final month of the season, Toney had a 33.5 percent target share and a 76 percent catch rate. His YPT was just 7.6 but that doesn't really matter when he's primed to reel in double-digit receptions. 

His final two games of the regular season underline who Toney is as a player. He caught 25 of 31 targets for 272 yards and two scores. Texas A&M has a lot of problems giving up explosive plays through the air. Toney is the last guy they want to see. There's not much more to think about here. Toney is a must-play on this slate. Fade at your own risk.

Ole Miss Wideouts

This one's tricky. Again, Ole Miss has the highest team total and we'll want to get some pairing options locked in alongside Trinidad Chambliss.

The problem is that Ole Miss spreads it around a lot because they're so loaded there. All of Harrison Wallace, Cayden Lee, De'Zhaun Stribling, Deuce Alexander and Dae'Quan Wright can be difference makers. Five Rebs have between 489 and 719 receiving yards. That wide spread of targets works in our favor to an extent because no Ole Miss pass-catcher is priced over $5,200. But, who will be the right answer?

Stribling is coming off his best game of the season with 66 yards and two touchdowns. He's drawn at least five targets in six of his last seven games, so there's some semblance of floor here. Wallace leads the team in receiving (46/719) but has just three touchdowns. PPR scoring will help him, but at the same time, Wallace might not see the same target volume we've grown accustomed to in this spot. 

If I'm going away from Wallace and/or Stribling, I'm looking at Cayden Lee ($4,500) and Dae'Quan Wright ($4,400). Lee sustained an 11.0 YPT mark for the season and is a major big-play threat. Wright is a mismatch who averaged 17.3 YPC before getting dinged up against Miss State. He's listed as probable, but you'll want to confirm his status ahead of kickoff. Assuming he's good to go, Wright is a good way to get a low roster % option from the Ole Miss offense.

Oregon Receivers

Much has been made of Oregon getting healthier at receiver going into the playoff. The Ducks have been patching things together just fine without Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant down the stretch but both are questionable to play Saturday. There's also the potential return of Evan Stewart, who has been out all year due to a knee injury.

I sense that Stewart will be a popular play because he's min-priced and high profile. Stewart was a big-time recruit who has had a solid collegiate career with 1,776 yards in three seasons. I understand the allure of getting his talent at $3K, but I'm worried that the snaps and opportunities will be limited. I'm not fading him completely, assuming he's available, but I'm not locking him in as a bingo free space either. This could look like George Pickens in the CFP back in 2021 when he was more of a decoy than anything.

Additionally, I doubt Oregon will be incentivized much more than is absolutely necessary. I see them building a lead and running the clock out. 

Ashton Bethel-Roman, Texas A&M ($4,100) vs Miami

KC Concepcion ($6,000) is obviously a fine play given his role. I don't need to tell you that. But what about the other Aggie pass catchers? Mario Craver ($5,400) is a threat to go nuclear any week, but at the same time, he's pretty much been dormant since the Notre Dame game. Maybe this is the time to buy back in, but I understand being hesitant.

Door No.3 is Bethel-Roman. Some of his late-season production is misleading like his two touchdowns against Samford. That said, four catches for 139 and a score in the epic comeback against South Carolina stand out. He's had at least four targets in each of his last four games. 

I'm a little shaky on A&M's passing game projection Saturday, but there's going to be enough volume to go around and Bethel-Roman will have a claim to a decent share of it.