College Football Best Bets: Navy vs. Memphis
While Thanksgiving is synonymous with NFL football, there is one collegiate game taking place as well. Fortunately, it shapes up to be an interesting one. Navy visits Memphis in a battle between teams currently sitting on eight wins, and there are implications for the AAC title game as well. How will it shake out, though? More to the point, will any bets you place for Thanksgiving football leave you with that thankful feeling that is right there in the nomenclature?
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Navy vs. Memphis Betting Odds
Spread: Memphis -5.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: Over 58.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 59.0 (BetRivers Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Memphis -200 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Navy +175 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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It's Navy, not Memphis, still in play for the AAC title, but Memphis is the favorite at home. While it's not a large spread, it's sizeable enough to say that the Tigers are considered a proper favorite. What might be driving at that? And do I agree with that assessment?
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Navy vs. Memphis Betting Predictions
Obviously, service academy football is a different beast, making assessments an atypical exercise. Navy is 8-2, 6-1 in conference, with this game and then, of course, the Army-Navy game. The Midshipmen's losses, in terms of opponents, aren't bad. Navy lost on the road to North Texas and Notre Dame. However, both losses were by comfortable margins, with the Irish utterly housing the Midshipmen. The good wins, which are sparse, have been by narrow margins.
Memphis' three losses have all been in conference, with a close road loss to East Carolina and a close home loss to Tulane both understandable. Its loss to UAB, though, was brutal. Unlucky and weird, but brutal. When pushing and shoving come together, though, Memphis ranks 30th in SP+, and Navy ranks 60th. Both have good offenses, but the Tigers' offense ranks 13th. Both have poor defenses, but the Midshipmen's is all the way down at 99th.
Matchup wise, things are in Memphis' favor. Navy runs the triple option, and the Tigers rank first in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game. The Midshipmen do flip the ball to running back Eli Heidenreich in the passing game, though, and he has 38 catches for 741 yards and four scores. Navy's defensive concern is stopping the pass, and I will grant you that Brendon Lewis has not excelled at quarterback for the Tigers. However, Cortez Braham has 59 catches for 824 yards and seven touchdowns. Also, speaking of running backs catching passes, over his last six games Greg Desrosiers has 25 receptions.
With a team set up like Navy involved and the game being on a short week, I had the itch to take the service academy and the points and hope for something weird. That's bold to bet on, though, especially with Navy's road performances this season. The SP+ ratings, and the projections based off said ratings, lead me to believe that Navy would need a fair amount of luck to win this one.
Navy vs. Memphis Best Bet: Memphis -5.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Navy vs. Memphis Betting Predictions
I expect a fair amount of points in this one. While Memphis has a good run defense, it isn't elite. The Midshipmen will get something going offensively. The issue is stops, which is why I think a significant sprinkling of luck will be needed. Navy has allowed at least 31 points in each of its last six games. While four of those were wins, Memphis isn't FAU or Air Force. The Tigers have too much talent, and they can win without it being down to the wire.
Memphis 38, Navy 28
Navy vs. Memphis Best Bets for Thursday, November 27
Cortez Braham, Memphis – Over 76.5 receiving yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Five times this season, including in each of his last two games, Braham has been over 76.5 receiving yards. He also has games with 69 and 75 receiving yards, where one more catch probably would have done it. Navy's pass defense is barely better than Oklahoma State's. I probably don't need to say more than that, do it?
Eli Heidenreich, Navy – Over 56.5 receiving yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I'm in a positive mood. Chalk it up to the holiday weekend, I suppose. If you haven't been paying attention, on five occasions Heidenreich has topped 56.5 receiving yards. In fact, Navy offense or not, he's top 100 receiving yards twice. Heidenreich got targeted 11 times in Navy's last game! If the Midshipmen have issues in the ground game, there is essentially one option, and that's getting the ball to Heidenreich.
