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Boise State vs. North Texas Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for the Frisco Bowl
Two teams looking to rebound from Conference Championship losses meet up in the Frisco Bowl as Boise State and North Texas hope to finish the season on a high note. North Texas enters with a new head coach as the University let go of former HC Seth Littrell after a loss in the CUSA Championship game, but the previous DC will step up to take his place, so perhaps there won't be a loss of consistency. Boise State has several injury concerns that likely won't be cleared up until we get closer to game time, but the Broncos remain a strong favorite.
Boise State vs. North Texas Odds for the Frisco Bowl
Spread: Boise State -10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 59.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Boise State -400; North Texas +310 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
A bit of an odd situation here as the line opened at Boise State -3.5 and jumped all the way up to -10.5, yet there was no major news outside the firing of Littrell, which indicates that the odds makers may have whiffed on this opening line. Whatever the case, it's back to where it should be as Boise State is a deserved favorite. While neither of these teams are powerhouses, Boise State still has some cache from its glory years and definitely has more of a backing from the bettors in general than UNT. The total also made a large jump as it opened at 52.5 and as now pushing 60. This move is likely a reaction to UNT QB Austin Aune declaring for the NFL draft...but choosing to play in this game. Perhaps that last part wasn't known when the line was set and Aune's presence is definitely worth at least seven points.
Boise State 
vs. North Texas 
Betting Picks This Week
Bowl games are tricky because so many new variables are in play such as player defections, coaching changes, and most of all motivation. North Texas likely has the motivational edge as Boise State is probably not happy to be here. With that said, UNT has a QB that might be looking ahead to the draft and a HC picking up the pieces after Littrell was fired. While Boise State has some injury concerns, the Broncos are mostly intact here and as long as they are focused, they should cover this number. Another thing to look for in bowl season are teams that are looking to the future and Boise State meets that criteria as its new starting QB is a freshman, so the Broncos will use this game as a building block for the future. They also have the edge on offense against a poor UNT defense that allowed almost 460 per game this season, which is why I like the Broncos at -10.5. UNT was sound on offense this season, but the Mean Green might be facing its biggest challenge all season in a Bronco defense that allowed only 160 passing yards per game. As such, I'm expecting UNT to struggle on offense and for this total to go under 59.5. Boise State looks like a solid play at -400 as well, but I do caution against going too big on any bowl team that isn't in the playoff as you can never be sure about motivation.
Boise State vs. North Texas Prediction
We should see early on if UNT is going to put up a fight in this game. The Mean Green lost their HC and the their QB might be distracted, which will show right away. I'm actually expecting UNT to play well early as teams often play with a spark when a new coach is in play, but Boise State should tamp down that enthusiasm fairly early and then start to coast. If this game gets out of hand, I have to imagine that Aune will hit the pine as UNT will want to get a look at the future, whoever that is. In fact, that might happen anyway, so expecting a back door cover could be problematic.
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