This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Louisville vs. USC Best Bets
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The transfer portal and opt-outs will play a major factor in evaluating the Holiday Bowl, as USC and Louisville are missing major pieces on offense and defense. The team with the better formula for replacing these losses will win out in San Diego.
Louisville vs. USC Betting Odds for Holiday Bowl
Spread: Louisville -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 58.5 (BetMGM), Under 59 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville -258 (DraftKings Sportsbook), USC +230 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Surprisingly, the spread and total for this game haven't moved all that much, as most of the key absences for this game were announced weeks ago. Increased public money on Louisville has driven the line down one point over the week, but the total has stagnated.
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Louisville vs. USC Betting Picks for Holiday Bowl
No analysis of this game would be complete without discussing the transfers and opt-outs that loom large in this contest. The Trojans expect to have 24 players out for the game, most notably Caleb Williams, who ultimately failed to meet expectations as the program's savior. The Trojans lost five of their last six games with Williams at the helm, and the position won't improve with Miller Moss taking over as the signal-caller. At best, the backup will cause fewer fits for the offensive line, which struggled with holding penalties while they tried to assist Williams' backfield antics. To make matters worse, top RB MarShawn Lloyd and wideout Brenden Rice won't play, and several key pieces of the defense have also opted out, including CB Domani Jackson and De'Jon Benton. The Cardinals will also have some issues on offense with their top running back (Jawhar Jordan) and standout receiver (Jamari Thrash) headed out of town.
USC will still have the services of Austin Jones in the backfield, as well as Tahj Washington, Zachariah Branch, and Dorian Singer lining up at wideout. While that's a notch in the plus column for the Trojans, Moss at QB is a big question mark. There's no doubt that he's been coached up heavily for this game, but the team's sub-par defense will struggle to give the offense many chances. Despite Lousville's absences, Jack Plummer will continue as the team's starting quarterback, and they have capable replacements with Isaac Guerendo at running back and a host of good receivers. While the Cardinals faded down the stretch, they are mostly intact compared to what the Trojans can bring to the field. USC's defense will once again be the culprit and kill the Torjans' chances for a bowl win.
Louisville vs. USC Expert Pick: Louisville -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Louisville vs. USC Predictions for Holiday Bowl
Obviously, the success of both quarterbacks will be critical in this game, but the Cardinals should be ready for Moss, who isn't very mobile and is primarily a pocket passer. He's had some game experience in blowouts during the season, and while the team has confidence in him, moving the ball will still be a problem. The best case for a Louisville win relies largely on Gruerendo's presence, as he often looked better than Jordan in a few games this season. While USC's Jones is also battle-tested, the Cards should be able to create some openings for Guerendo to break out for a few runs and win the ground battle. As said previously, Lousville's defense is mostly intact, and they've only allowed an average of 19.7 points to some tough opponents. They've also forced 19 turnovers in 13 games. USC finished the season with a turnover margin of -2, and while Moss might be more responsible in the backfield, he could throw into a few mistakes.
