Penn State vs Minnesota Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 8

Written by

Published on October 22, 2022

Penn State vs. Minnesota Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 8

There are a lot of ironic similarities about where Penn State and Minnesota sit through the first seven weeks of the season. Both squads got out to impressive 4-0 starts, but now they each need a win in the worst way after suffering embarrassing double-digit road losses last week. What's more, neither team seems to know for sure who their starting quarterback will be moving forward, as sixth-year veterans Sean Clifford and Tanner Morgan both left with injuries in the fourth quarter of Week 7. Oct. 22 has been circled on the calendar ever since the Nittany Lions first announced that their annual White Out game would come against the Golden Gophers. Now, these teams will look to keep their seasons from completely falling off the rails Saturday night in Happy Valley.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Odds for Week 8

Spread: Penn State -4.5 (-107 PointsBet)

Total: 44.5 (-107 PointsBet)

Moneyline: Penn State -200 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Minnesota +176 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Penn State was originally favored by around 6.5 before last week's 41-17 loss to Michigan. Since then, the spread has floated between four and five points, while the FanDuel moneylines have danced as low as +134 MINN and -126 PSU. Meanwhile, the total has stood pat around 44.5. The implied score of 24.5-20 would suggest the smart bet is to take Minnesota +4.5 given the common key number score of 24-21. The Golden Gophers are 4-2 ATS and have an over/under record of 2-3-1. The Nittany Lions are 3-3 ATS with the over hitting in four of their six contests.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Betting Picks This Week

There are three good reasons to take the under as one of the best CFB Week 8 picks in this matchup: 1) simple Big Ten principle, 2) quarterback uncertainty, 3) lack of better options. Penn State and Minnesota are among the worst teams in the nation for explosive plays over their past three games, with just eight and 10 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards, respectively. The Big Ten schedule has not been kind to these offenses, and that doesn't figure to get much better if they're forced to start their freshman signal-callers. That's not to mention the veteran starters who didn't show much in their past outings either; Clifford completed seven of his 19 passes for 120 yards before exiting against Michigan, and Morgan posted an even more abysmal stat line (4-for-12 passing, 21 yards, one interception) before he was forced out with his team already down 26-14 to Illinois. On the other side, the Golden Gophers' defense can stonewall opposing offenses, while the Nittany Lions' defense is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. Two proficient defenses combined with these spotty offenses make it awfully difficult to pick a single team with any true confidence in this matchup.

Penn State vs. Minnesota Best Bet: Total Under 44.5

Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction

The blueprints for how to beat these teams were laid out in their losses last week. Against Penn State, exploit the weak rush defense that gave up 418 yards on the ground against the Wolverines' dominant running game. That bodes well for Minnesota, which features a road-grading offensive line and a running back in Mohamed Ibrahim that ranks fourth in the FBS in rushing yards per game (138.8) and 11th in yards per carry (6.67). But, as much as the Golden Gophers would like to run the ball every play – 5.5 percent rushing rate over expectation is 99th in the country –, they'll eventually be forced to throw it against the Nittany Lions' elite pass defense, which ranks 13th nationally in EPA/pass (-0.173), per @statsowar on Twitter. Penn State should feel comfortable putting their top three cornerbacks, who all rank top 10 in the conference for passes defended per game, on an island against Minnesota's banged-up RPO passing game, which ranks 71st for EPA/pass (0.034), according to @statsowar. Minnesota's offense totaled just 38 passing yards and three interceptions on 6-for-18 passing and either punted or turned the ball over on seven of their nine meaningful possessions against the Fighting Illini's dominant defense. It's hard to imagine that Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz won't look at this game when preparing for how to stop the Golden Gophers. Forcing turnovers could help set up the Nittany Lions' offense for an easy short-field touchdown as well. Penn State's offense has lacked consistency for much of the season (97th in offensive success rate), but it has a pair of highly-talented freshman running backs and enough offensive playmakers throughout to manufacture a few points against Minnesota's stout defense, which ranks 49th in rushing success rate allowed (38.1 percent), per @statsowar.

At the end of the day, this result swings first and foremost on who'll be stepping in under center Saturday. If both starters can go, I could see this one going either way. However, if it does come to the backups, I don't love redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis' chances to keep Minnesota's offense on track in this raucous road atmosphere, whereas true freshman Drew Allar would have the benefit of 106,572 screaming Penn State fans backing him up. Since Clifford's probability to play seems better than Morgan's, I'll let that inform my final prediction.

Final Score: Penn State 20, Minnesota 14

If you're looking to wager on college football this season, RotoWire has a full suite of betting pages and tools with everything you need from the latest college football odds to weekly college football picks along with updated college football futures and Heisman odds. Be sure to use our college football betting sites page to see what's available across the country and in your state, along with the latest promo codes and sign-up bonuses.