Beating The Book

Last week wasn't terrible -- I went 7-7 ATS, but won with the games I liked most -- Saints, Titans, Falcons (best bet) -- except the Patriots. I went 2-3 in the Supercontest, but that's a lost cause at this point -- at least until the season's final three weeks, where there's a separate pool. 

This week, I especially like the Titans, Giants, Bengals, Cardinals and Bears. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Colts +2 at Titans

I love the Titans here, as I think they're better than the Colts, and they're laying only two at home during the short week. Moreover, the Colts were in a war with the Ravens while the Titans mostly breezed last week. Lay the wood. 

Titans 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Football Team +3.5 at Lions

I have this game as the standard three, as I think these are roughly equal teams. Take the points. 

Lions 23 - 20

Texans +3 at Browns

The Browns have been better this year, though the Texans have improved since canning Bill O'Brien. Still, give me the home favorites. 

Browns 31 - 26

Jaguars +13.5 at Packers

I made this line 11.5, so I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Jaguars, but the Packers often crush weak teams at home. 

Packers 28 - 17

Eagles -3.5 at Giants

The Giants were up 21-10 a couple weeks ago with four minutes left, and they've stayed competitive against the Rams and Buccaneers too, Take the points. 

Eagles 24 - 23

Buccaneers -4.5 at Panthers

I set this line at three, so I'm on the Panthers. The Bucs not only got killed against New Orleans, they barely held on to beat the Giants, while the Panthers have hung around against the Chiefs and Saints. 

Buccaneers 27 - 24

LATE GAMES

Bengals +7.5 at Steelers

The Steelers didn't look good in Dallas last week, and Ben Roethlisberger has injury and COVID concerns. The Bengals defense played a little better two weeks ago, and Joe Burrow looks like a star. Take the points. 

Steelers 24 - 20

Broncos +5 at Raiders

I made this line 4.5, so I'm barely on the Broncos, who have stayed in most of their games.  But this one is a coin flip for me. 

Raiders 27 - 23

Bills +2 at Cardinals

I see these as roughly equal teams, so I made the line three, especially given the distance of the road trip. Take the Cardinals. 

Cardinals 30 - 27

Seahawks +1.5 at Rams

The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, but their defense is historically generous, so I set this line at three. Take the Rams. 

Rams 29 - 26

49ers +9 at Saints

I made this line 10.5 as I wanted to be on the Saints, but the Niners with their carousel of injuries are so hard to handicap. One week they're beating the Rams or blowing out the Pats and the next they're getting crushed at home by the Dolphins. In any event, I'm laying the wood. 

Saints 31 - 21

Chargers +2.5 at Dolphins

The Dolphins are outplaying their metrics, and the Chargers are underplaying theirs which explains the small line despite the disparity in records. Maybe regression will kick in finally, but coaching decisions matter, and Brian Flores is better than Anthony Lynn. Lay the wood.  

Dolphins 29 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Ravens -7 at Patriots

The Patriots struggled against the Jets Monday night, but it wasn't a terrible game, the Jets finally looked like an NFL team and the Patriots pulled it out. The Ravens are good, but I don't expect going into New England as big favorites to be easy, and Cam Newton looked sharper last week. Take the points. 

Ravens 24 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Vikings -2.5 at Bears

The Bears are obviously not as good as their record, but I like them as a Monday night home dog in this spot. They stopped Derrick Henry last week, and I suspect they'll sell out to stop Dalvin Cook too, leaving Kirk Cousins to try and beat them. I'm betting he won't. 

Bears 20 - 17

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 7-7 last week to bring my season-long record to 61-71-1, won my best bet (Falcons 3-6) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 19-24-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.