Beating The Book

Last week wasn't great as I went 7-8-1, lost my best bet (Rams) and went 1-3-1 in the Supercontest. In retrospect, the Rams were a foolish and reactive pick, but the team I wanted to switch to was the Titans who got blown out in Green Bay. 

This week, I especially like the Bears and Cardinals. 

EARLY GAMES

Cowboys -3 at Giants

The Cowboys have been the better team of late, but Daniel Jones didn't play badly against the Ravens and appears to be getting over his hamstring injury. Joe Judge gets this team to show up more often than not, and the winner of this game will make the playoffs if the Eagles (slight underdogs) beat the Football Team Sunday night. Take the points. 

Cowboys 26 - 24

Steelers +10 at Browns

I thought the Steelers, who could still get the No. 2 seed, would try in this game, but then they named Mason Rudolph the starter. And if Rudolph is starting, expect other key Steelers to sit or be limited. The Browns need this game to get into the playoffs, so I'm laying the wood. 

Browns 31 - 17

Jets +3 at Patriots

The Jets have been the better team of late, and I was wrong last week about the Patriots showing up against the Bills. But I'll lay the wood one more time for the winning culture. Take the Pats. 

Patriots 24 - 20

Vikings -7 at Lions

The Lions had the worst ever showing of any collection of humans involved in any endeavor last week. If Matthew Stafford plays, I'd be tempted to buy low, and if he doesn't, I wouldn't take the Lions for anything less than 12. Given the uncertainty, I'll lay the wood. 

Vikings 31 - 13

Falcons +6.5 at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have some seeding at stake -- if the Rams win, Tampa gets the fifth seed with a win, but falls to sixth with a loss. That might not sound like a big deal, but the fifth seed draws the NFC East winner, while the sixth faces the third seed (Seahawks, Saints or Packers.) Still, the Falcons show up most weeks, and this is enough points. 

Falcons 31 - 27

Ravens -12 at Bengals

The Bengals have showed a backbone the last couple weeks, beating the Steelers and Texans. The Ravens need to win this game, but 12 points is too many. Take the home dog. 

Ravens 30 - 20 

Dolphins +1 at Bills

I thought the Bills would play for the second seed, but now that the Steelers are playing Mason Rudolph they don't have to. The Dolphins are fighting for their postseason lives, so I guess I'll take the point. 

Dolphins 24 - 19

LATE GAMES

Jaguars +14 at Colts

The Colts need to win to have a chance at the postseason, and the Jaguars are sticking with Mike Glennon and will be without DJ Chark and James Robinson. Still, I'll take the points as the teams with nothing for which to play often try hard before an offseason of rest. 

Colts 30 - 17

Packers -5.5 at Bears

The Bears get into the playoffs with a win, while the Packers lock up the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, i.e., the stakes couldn't be higher this game. Give me the Bears who have played much better of late. 

Bears 24 - 23

Titans -7.5 at Texans

If Deshaun Watson plays, this is too many points for a defense that can't stop anyone. And yet, I have a Titans feeling. Their offense is too good, and they're coming off a bad road loss and need this game for the playoffs. Lay the wood. 

Titans 41 - 31

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

The Saints are playing for the top seed if the Bears beat the Packers, so they'll go all out. The Panthers have improved defensively, and their offense can move the ball, so this is roughly the right line. But I'll lay the wood. 

Saints 31 - 24

Chargers -3.5 at Chiefs

Having locked up the top seed in the conference, the Chiefs are sitting their key players, so this is pretty simple: lay the wood. Of course, it's the Chargers, so it's never that simple. 

Chargers 27 - 19

Seahawks -5.5 at 49ers

With the 49ers they either show up and crush, or they no-show and get crushed. There's not really much in between. Last week they showed, but this week they're missing Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, and the Seahawks defense is playing better of late. Lay the wood. 

Seahawks 27 - 20

Raiders -2.5 at Broncos

I had the Broncos initially, but am getting a Raiders feeling as home field isn't what it used to be, the line is less than three and the Raiders have the better offense. But their defense is so poor, I expect the Broncos to hang around and make it a game. Take the points. 

Raiders 31 - 30

Cardinals +1.5 at Rams

With Kyler Murray possibly playing and Jared Goff definitely out, this seems like an easy call. The Rams have the better defense, but they're also without Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp and possibly Cam Akers. Take the points. 

Cardinals 17 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Football Team -1.5 at Eagles

As a Giants fan, I want the Eagles to win and think Jalen Hurts is a future star. But the Cowboys defense overwhelmed the Eagles offensive line, and the Football Team's defense is better. Moreover, it looks like Alex Smith will be back, and Fletcher Cox has no reason to push it after suffering a stinger last week. Lay the wood. 

Football Team 24 - 20

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 7-8-1 last week to bring my season-long record to 112-121-7, lost my best bet (Rams 5-11) and went 1-3-1 in the Supercontest to go 34-44-2 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.