Beating The Book

I went 7-8 yet again last week, but it wasn't all bad. We went 4-1 on our SuperContest picks, and I won my best bet (Panthers) to go to 8-0. That's 1 in 256 by dumb luck. Let's see if we can't make it 512. (Will pick a best bet later today in Staff Picks.) 

This week, I especially like the Dolphins and Saints. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Jets +10.5 at Colts

The Colts should annihilate the Jets at home off the short week. Mike White and the upset win over the Bengals was a good story, but lay the wood here. 

Colts 31 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Texans +6.5 at Dolphins

If Tyrod Taylor plays, this is a better line, but like the Eagles destroying the Lions last week, sometimes a NFL-caliber team in a bad way takes it out on a true doormat. Lay the wood. 

Dolphins 34 - 16

Broncos +9.5 at Cowboys

If Dak Prescott plays, this is the right line. The Cowboys are so solid on both sides of the ball. The question is whether the Broncos defense can keep it close enough. I'll say no. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 27 - 17

Vikings +5.5 at Ravens

I like the Ravens at home and off the bye against a Vikings squad that couldn't beat the Dak-Prescott-less Cowboys at home. 

Ravens 30 - 23

Patriots -4 at Panthers

The Panthers are stout defensively, but I see the Patriots giving either Carolina QB big problems. This is a lot of points on the road, but I'm on New England. 

Patriots 24 - 13

Bills -14.5 at Jaguars

I used to go ugly in these situations, but the Jaguars make that hard. The Bills might have a letdown game here, though, so give me the points. 

Bills 23 - 10

Browns +2.5 at Bengals

I'll buy the Bengals low off their upset loss to the Jets. The Browns have no vertical passing game, and while they can grind it out, the Bengals are the better team. Take Cincy. 

Bengals 23 - 20

Raiders -3 at Giants

The Raiders have had a tough year -- first their coach gets canned out of the blue for old emails, and now their top pick from last year, Henry Ruggs, has been cut after being charged with a DUI that resulted in a person's death. It's hard to know how something like this will affect the team, but I can't imagine it's good. Take the Giants who usually show up. 

Raiders 24 - 23

Falcons +6 at Saints

I'm assuming Taysom Hill is the quarterback, but either way, I'll take the Saints, who are physically strong on both sides of the ball. 

Saints 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Chargers -1.5 at Eagles

I was initially on the Chargers, so I'll stick with it, even though their last two no-shows have got me questioning what's going on. 

Chargers 23 - 20

Packers +7.5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs are the contrarian play, but they need to prove it to me first. They got destroyed by the Titans, and even looked shaky against a depleted Giants team. Take the Packers. 

With Aaron Rodgers scratched due to Covid, this line moved from a pick 'em to 7.5. I'll stick with the Packers, but I've amended the line. 

Chiefs 26 - 20

Cardinals -1 at 49ers

I made this line a pick 'em, so I'm on the 49ers. Kyler Murray's status is big, but the Cardinals also seemed to miss a fully healthy DeAndre Hopkins Thursday night too. 

49ers 26 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Titans +7.5 at Rams

The loss of Derrick Henry is big here, but Mike Vrabel gets his team to play against everyone (except the Cardinals), and this is just enough points for me. Take the Titans. 

Rams 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Bears +6.5 at Steelers

After a bad start, the Steelers have clawed their way back into contention, but their offense is still sluggish, and Justin Fields seems to have turned a corner. Take the points. 

Steelers 23 - 19

Last week, I went into 7-8 ATS to go to 57-62-3 on the year, won my best bet (Panthers) to go to 8-0, and went 4-1 in the SuperContest to go 22-17-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.