Beating the Book: ATS Picks, Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 14 Game

Welcome to the NFL Week 14 edition of Beating the Book!

After stringing together a nice run of positive weeks in a row, things came crashing down in Week 13, as we posted a 6-10 mark against the number. Not good. However, we did go 14-2 SU and hit our best bet (Chargers -1.5), so it wasn't all doom and gloom.

Anyway, time to turn the page to Week 14 – the final week of the season with teams on bye, so we're left with a 13-game slate.

As of publication, the Eagles are the notable outlier, laying 12.0 points at home against the Panthers. No other game features a spread of more than 6.5 points. It's also a week dominated by home favorites. The Saints, Bills and Bengals are the only three teams giving points on the road.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 14 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 13

Raiders +13.0 at Chiefs: After taking the bait on the Chiefs laying double-digits a week ago, we reversed course and remembered that Kansas City is yet to prove capable of blowing anyone out – even the AOC Raiders.

Chargers -1.5 at Falcons: Los Angeles made us sweat this out thanks to a disastrous offensive day, but there's a reason we love fading the Falcons.

Worst calls of Week 13

Bengals -2.5 vs. Steelers: I keep talking myself into the this is the week the Bengals figure it out narrative, and they proved once and for all that the defense simply cannot hold up.

Titans +5.5 at Commanders: Just a brutal, brutal pick that was mercifully wrapped up by the end of the first quarter. Washington ended up racking up more rushing yards than Tennessee had total yards on the day.

Last week: 6-10 ATS; 14-2 SU; best bet won (Chargers -1.5)

On the season: 101-91-3 ATS; 132-63 SU; 5-6-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 51.0

In a rematch of the Week 9 Rumble in the Rain at Lambeau Field, this is a massive game for both teams. Despite rolling to 10 straight wins, Detroit only holds a 1.0-game lead over Philadelphia for the 1-seed in the NFC, and Minnesota is just a game behind the Lions in their own division. The Packers, meanwhile, could give themselves a realistic chance at winning the NFC North with a road win here.

After convincing wins over the Niners and Dolphins at home, Green Bay seems to be surging at the right time, but this will be a much tougher test against what's been the most consistent team in the NFL. Injuries are starting to mount on the Detroit defense, however, so the Packers may be able to exploit the absences of Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone and, most recently, Malcolm Rodriguez.

The key for Green Bay will be establishing Josh Jacobs and hitting enough downfield plays to score with the Lions. The Packers generate chunk plays through the air as well as anyone, but Jacobs struggled last week (19 carries for 43 yards), and the Lions have held their last four opponents to 78, 96, 41 and 56 total rushing yards. 

I do think Green Bay is catching the Lions at a good time and could push to win outright. But I don't go quite that far. Lions win by a field goal but the Packers cover.

The pick: Lions 27 – Packers 24

Sunday Early Slate

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -6.5

Total: 45.5

Early in the season, we were struggling to pick Jets games, but our recent strategy of simply fading them on a weekly basis is paying off. While New York didn't necessarily play well in Week 13 – they failed reach 300 yards of offense for the fourth straight game – they had no business losing to a Seahawks team that did the following things:

• Fumbled three (3) kickoffs in the first half, resulting in the prompt cutting of LaViska Shenault on Monday morning
• Had an extra-point blocked
• Converted 4-of-13 third downs
• Ran for 84 yards on 23 carries
• Ended up with zero points after running seven consecutive plays inside the 4-yard-line on a key drive in the second half

Week after week, the Jets keep finding increasingly comical ways to lose games, and it's gotten to the point that the team is apparently discussing benching Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't sound like that will happen this week, but with Rodgers looking like a shell of his former self, it may be Tyrod Taylor time sooner than later.

It's worth noting, of course, that the Dolphins enter this game after getting smacked around by the Packers on Thanksgiving night. If you bought into the Dolphins in cold weather narrative, the game played out about as expected. Miami struggled to tackle throughout the night, and while Tua Tagovailoa ended up with decent numbers, he failed to generate big plays and tacked on a decent chunk of his yardage after the game was essentially decided.

Even so, Miami is still hanging around in the AFC Wild Card picture, so I don't see this being a letdown spot at home. I do expect Miami to continue to struggle running the ball, but they can put up enough points to win this by a touchdown.

The pick: Dolphins 27 – Jets 20

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -5.5

Total: 45.5

At long last, the schedule-makers made us wait until December, but we finally have our Kirk Cousins Return Game. Frankly, Cousins could not be colder heading into this showdown, having tossed six picks and zero (0) touchdowns over the last three games, as the Falcons have seen their grip on the NFC South slip away.

With the Buccaneers surging – and facing the Raiders at home this week – this feels like a near-must-win for Atlanta, which has dropped three in a row to New Orleans, Denver and the Chargers. Cousins getting his mojo back is a must, and at some point he has to snap out of this recent malaise. 

On the other side, Minnesota continues to skate by in close games on a weekly basis. Turnovers and red zone failures have become all too common of late, but you do have to give the Vikings credit for continually pulling out these ugly results. 

Playing at home against a struggling Cousins, this should be a good spot for the Vikings defense and a coordinator who knows the veteran well. At some point, Cousins has to get things turned around, but I'm not sure he's at 100 percent right now, and this is a tough spot against the Brian Flores defense.

We'll follow the recent trend and take Minnesota to win a close game for its eighth one-score victory of the season.

The pick: Vikings 26 – Falcons 21

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Spread: Saints -5.0

Total: 40.5

This isn't quite Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week territory, but it's close. The Giants will roll out Drew Lock at quarterback again this week. I still think he's an upgrade over Tommy DeVito, but his performance on Thanksgiving Day is a reminder that he has plenty of Jameis in him, when it comes to general recklessness.

The Giants know their season is over, and they placed their best player, Dexter Lawrence, on IR following an elbow injury in that Week 13 loss. That should help open things up for the Saints' running game, which has had to carry an offense that's devoid of any high-level weapons. I will say, the loss of Taysom Hill is a major factor for New Orleans – particularly in short-yardage situations. But the Saints do get Kendre Miller back from IR, and he should provide a solid secondary option alongside Alvin Kamara.

This will undoubtedly be a weird, sloppy game that comes down to the final quarter. The Saints are the better team, but if the Giants are able to move the ball on the ground, they can keep it close. I like New Orleans to hang on and win outright, but the Giants can cover.

The pick: Saints 21 – Giants 17

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -12.0

Total: 45.5

Interesting spot for the Eagles, who are riding an eight-game winning streak and sit at 8-4 ATS but are yet to be favored by double-digits this season.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have strung together four straight impressive games behind massively improved play from Bryce Young, who went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in Week 12 and out-played Baker Mayfield last week in a game Carolina deserved to win.

Watching Young over the last month, it's clear that his confidence has returned. He's making better decisions, the big-time throws are back, he's getting the ball out quickly and he looks much more dangerous as a runner. One key indicator: Young, who was one of the most sack-able quarterbacks I've ever seen to begin his career, has taken just five total sacks over the last four games.

With all of that said, this may be the Panthers' stiffest test of the season. On paper, it could be a letdown spot for Philly against a frisky team, but the Eagles' defense is playing at an extremely high level, and the offensive line continues to be one of the best in football. 

I do think Carolina can hang around and make this a game in the first half, but the Panthers' defense is still one of the worst units in the NFL and ranks 31st in rush defense EPA. As seems to be the case every week for Eagles opponents, eventually the dam will break, and Saquon Barkley will get loose to seal a double-digit win. If there was ever a spot for Barkley to put up another 200-yard game and solidify his quest for a 2,000-yard season, this is it.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Panthers 17

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -6.0

Total: 43.0

As far as 3-9 vs. 9-3 teams go, I'm actually looking forward to watching the rematch of The Snow Game from Week 12. While the Browns are coming off of a crushing defeat in the Jameis game to end all Jameis games on Monday night, it's clear that Winston has infused a significant jolt into an offense that was routinely struggling to put up 250 total yards with Deshaun Watson at the helm. Despite the loss – and blown cover – Cleveland racked up 552 yards on one of the NFL's best defenses last week, with Winston accounting for nearly 500 on those through the air.

Pittsburgh should do a much better job of not leaving Jerry Jeudy wide open on every single play, but the Browns have found ways to move the ball on just about everyone since Winston took over. Cleveland still has no semblance of a running game, however, and having to air it out 35-plus times against Pittsburgh – a top-10 pass defense – likely will not be a recipe for success. 

More than anything, though, this game will come down to whether Russell Wilson can continue to play at an elite – yes, I said it – level. Once again, I will admit I was wrong about the Steelers' decision to go to Wilson. He's completely resurrected the passing game and has infused big-play potential to an offense that needed exactly that.

Chances are, this won't be a second straight 400-plus-yard day, but I like the Steelers to generate a couple of turnovers and hit enough chunk plays to win and cover at home.

The pick: Steelers 28– Browns 20

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -7.0

Total: 46.0

The Raiders are cruising toward another lost season and have dropped eight in a row straight up, but they tend to play (mostly) competitive games and after last week are now 4-2 ATS as a dog of at least a touchdown this season.

There's not much, if any, of a dropoff from Gardner Minshew to Aidan O'Connell, who carved up the Chiefs' defense a week ago behind another monster Brock Bowers game. The Raiders' lack of a running game is a major concern, however, especially against a Bucs team that's held three straight opponents under 80 total yards on the ground.

Tampa Bay was extremely lucky to escape with a victory in Carolina last week, narrowly avoiding disaster in overtime despite perhaps the worst game of the season from Baker Mayfield. The Bucs' running game bailed them out, piling up 236 yards on the ground with Bucky Irving leading the way. Irving did get banged up toward the end of the game, so we'll have to keep an eye on his status. 

Either way, I like the Raiders to make this another sweat for Tampa. They won't win outright, but Vegas can cover the number.

The pick: Bucs 27 – Raiders 22

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -3.5

Total: 39.5

This game is up in the air as we await the status of Trevor Lawrence, but I'm not expecting him to be out there after sustaining a clear concussion in Week 13. 

While these teams are fairly even, the number also implies that it'll be Mac Jones for the Jags. Jones had two brutal games in his two starts in place of Lawrence, but he did lead a pair of late touchdown drives last week to pull out a cover against the Texans. Regardless, he's a clear downgrade from Lawrence and significantly lowers the ceiling of the Jags' offense, which hasn't run for 100 yards as a team since Week 7.

I can keep piling on the Jags, but it's the Titans who are coming off of a disastrous outing last week in Washington. Thanks to a pair of fumbles, and a run defense that suddenly disappeared, the Titans were down 28-0 less than five minutes into the second quarter and never truly threatened to climb back into the game. 

For the most part, the Tennessee run defense has been one of the better units in the league this season, but the Titans allowed Washington to run for 267 yards – more than the total yardage (245) the Tennessee offense produced on the afternoon.

Facing the Mac Jones Jaguars at home could be the get-right recipe the Titans need, but ultimately these are two wildly unpredictable teams on week-to-week basis. We'll ride with Tennessee to win and cover at home.

The pick: Titans 24 – Jaguars 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -2.5

Total: 44.5

For the second time in three weeks, we're tasked with attempting to pick a Cardinals-Seahawks game. Obviously, this is going to be the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week.

The NFC West is a complete mess right now, but Seattle is in the driver's seat heading into the week, while Arizona has the most favorable of the remaining schedules. That aside, this feels like close to a must-win for the Cards, who blew a two-score lead to Minnesota last week after managing just six points in a loss at Seattle in Week 12.

The Cardinals did re-discover the running game last week, and the defense allowed less than 300 yards for the fourth straight game, but the Cards converted just one of six red zone trips into a touchdown. The lack of weapons outside of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. is something that shows through on a weekly basis.

On the Seattle side, we'll need to monitor the status of DK Metcalf, who tweaked his knee during last week's outlandish win (detailed above) over New York. Over the last few weeks, it's starting to feel as though Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become the Seahawks' new alpha receiver, but if Metcalf is out, that could swing things for a Seattle offense that's been slowed down in four of the last five games.

The Seahawks are the hotter team right now, but with Arizona playing at home and in desperate need of a win, we'll side the Cards to win by a field goal and take back the reins in the division.

The pick: Cardinals 20 – Seahawks 17

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Bills -4.5

Total: 49.0

Another team riding a long winning streak, the Bills head West having won seven in a row after taking care of business against the shorthanded Niners in the snow on Sunday. While the division is already is the bank, the Bills are still pushing for a possible 1-seed in the AFC, so they can't afford a letdown.

The Rams were able to pull out a win in New Orleans last week, but it wasn't nearly as convincing as I expected. LA was shut out in the first half before buckling down and scoring touchdowns on three of its four true drives in the second half. At times, the Rams' run defense has shown signs of improvement, but Alvin Kamara got loose for a 100-plus-yard day a week after LA opened the floodgates for Saquon Barkley.

That's a major concern against a Bills team that ranks fifth in rushing EPA and has racked up 21 touchdowns on the ground this season – good ford third in the NFL behind only Philly and Washington.

In desperate need of a win, I expect Matthew Stafford to come out sharp and test the Bills' secondary, but even in what could be a letdown spot for the Bills, I trust Buffalo to take handle business and notch an eighth consecutive victory.

The pick: Bills 29 – Rams 20

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -4.0

Total: 44.0

To finish out the late window, we stay on the West Coast for what's shaping up to be a very difficult game to handicap. We have plenty of moving pieces on both sides, beginning with an extensive injury report for the 49ers, who may be one more loss away from truly kissing any postseason hopes goodbye. Not only is San Francisco down to its third running back – rookie Isaac Guerendo – but the Niners could again be without Nick Bosa and Trent Williams, while Brock Purdy and Fred Warner each continue to play through injuries.

The Bears are coming off of yet another Extremely Bears Loss™ in Week 13 at Detroit. After getting off to a disastrous start, the Bears rallied back and had a chance to tie or win in regulation, only to completely mismanage the clock. So egregious was the decision-making that it marked the final straw for Matt Eberlus, who was (finally) relieved of his duties. 

Oftentimes, an in-season coach firing is the mark of a team in crisis, but I'm not sure that applies in this situation. If anything, I would expect the Bears to get a post-Eberflus bump, much like the offense did after parting ways with OC Shane Waldron a few weeks ago.

Freed from the shackles of Eberflus, I like this spot for Chicago to keep building on the progress it's made offensively. With this being a kitchen sink game for the Niners, we'll take them to win outright, but I like the Bears to cover the 4.0.

The pick: 49ers 23 – Bears 20

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 43.0

Very, very interesting game in the AFC West with both teams coming off of escapes in lackluster performances in Week 13. This has essentially become a weekly occurrence for the Chiefs, who managed just 19 points in a win over the Raiders while allowing Vegas to rack up over 430 yards of total offense. Two weeks in a row, the KC defense has looked shaky, and yet the Chiefs sit at 11-1, and I'm still not sure I'd be comfortable betting against this team in a playoff setting.

Meanwhile, the Chargers found a way to win in Atlanta last week despite putting up only 187 yards of total offense. Four Kirk Cousins interceptions – including a killer pick-six – worked in the Chargers' favor, but Ladd McConkey emerged from the game with a knee injury that could keep him out this week. I'm the biggest Justin Herbert sympathizer out there, but if McConkey can't go, the Chargers' lack of weapons should play into KC's favor.

We'll wait and see on McConkey before locking anything in, but this does feel like a spot where the schedule could catch up to the Chargers. They played on Monday night in Week 12, won a short week in Atlanta and now head out to Kansas City for a second straigh road game. 

Everything in me wants to take LA to at least cover, if not win outright, but I do think the Chiefs are the side here.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Chargers 18

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Bengals -5.5

Total: 49.5

While the Bengals are mathematically still alive in the AFC, last week's devastating loss to the Steelers felt like the final nail in the coffin for a team that simply cannot play defense. The Bengals have now lost four games this season in which they've scored at least 33 points – something the rest of the league, collectively, has done only once (Jags-Colts, baby).

Cincy's offense continues to be a borderline-elite unit – 6th in EPA, 3rd in passing EPA – but in its last six losses, the Cincy defense has given up 38, 41, 37, 35, 34 and 44 points. Outrageous numbers.

I do like the Bengals in this game, but the big question is whether the wind is out of the sails following last week's loss. Cincy knows its season is over, and while I'm not suggesting that they'll completely lie down, this could be a tricky spot.

The Cowboys are coming off of two straight wins over the Commanders and Giants. I don't put too much stock into the latter, but the Washington victory has to mean something, especially with the Commanders getting back on track in a major way in Week 13. Dallas also ran the ball fairly effectively last week, something they haven't been able to do for virtually the entire season.

If that keeps up, the Cowboys can hang around, but I like Cincinnati to once again put up points and eventually pull away from a Dallas team that ranks 27th in defensive EPA and dead-last against the run (4.9 YPC allowed).

The pick: Bengals 30 – Cowboys 24