Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 6

Last week was one of my worst of all time. I went 4-11 ATS and 0-4-1 in the Super Contest, though I won my best bet, the Steelers. 

Someone on Twitter suggested I switch things up process-wise, but I told him I've been at this more than 20 years, and while I'm always open to tweaking things, it's only four bad weeks. 

This week, I especially like the Giants, Seahawks, Texans, Eagles and Falcons. I hate my Ravens and Packers picks and am shaky on the Cowboys and Steelers. 

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Giants +16.5 at Patriots

This is probably the right line given all the injuries to Giants skill players, but I'll take the points. The Pats offense is dink and dunk, and they don't have a Dalvin Cook type to gash them for huge gains. Plus weather could be an issue.  

Patriots 20 - 6

LONDON GAME

Panthers -2 at Buccaneers

I made this game Panthers minus one, so I'm getting it at a point better than my line. But this is a coin flip. Take the Bucs. 

Panthers 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Bengals +11.5 at Ravens

I made this 13.5, so I'm on the Ravens, but I don't feel great about it. The Bengals have a professional quarterback, and the Ravens defense is average right now. 

Ravens 30 - 17

Seahawks -1 at Browns

I made this minus three, as the Seahawks are the better team, they're coming off extra rest and the Browns, who played Monday night, look lost this season. Take the road favorite. 

Seahawks 26 - 20

Texans +5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs have looked pedestrian on offense the last two weeks, as they can't protect Patrick Mahomes, and their defense is below average. Getting Tyreek Hill back would be a huge lift, but I like Deshaun Watson and the Texans to be able to shoot it out with them. Take Houston. 

Chiefs 33 - 30

Saints -1 at Jaguars

The Jaguars are tough, but they could be missing Jalen Ramsey again, and Teddy Bridgewater is starting to look like Drew Brees more each week. I made this line 2.5, so I'm taking another road favorite. 

Saints 23 - 20

Eagles +3 at Vikings

The Vikings ran over the Giants last week, but the Eagles front presents a different degree of difficulty for Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. I made this line a pick 'em, so I'm taking the points. 

Eagles 21 - 20

Redskins -3.5 at Dolphins

I made this line a pick 'em in Miami. The Dolphins are bad, but 6.5-points worse than the Redskins on a neutral field? That's pushing it. Take the Dolphins. 

Redskins 20 - 19

LATE GAMES

49ers +3.5 at Rams

I don't like that the Niners are coming off a short week and traveling to face a Rams team with extra rest, but that's mitigated by two factors: (1) It's not a long trip; and (2) the 49ers hardly had to break a sweat in destroying the Browns on Monday night. I made this line 2.5 -- as far as I can tell, the 49ers are the better team this year, so I'll take the 3.5 here. 

Rams 27 - 24

Falcons -2.5 at Cardinals

This is where I set the line, so I could go either way, but give me the Falcons at anything less than a field goal. Their defense is bad, but they have professionals at the offensive skill positions at least. 

Falcons 31 - 27

Cowboys -7 at Jets

I made this 8.5, and that was the line until it was confirmed Sam Darnold was healthy enough to start. I can't go back in time and know where I would have set it had I expected Darnold to play, but I knew it was a possibility, so I'll stick to my number. Take Dallas. 

Cowboys 27 - 17

Titans +2.5 at Broncos

These are roughly equal teams, so the Titans should be getting the full three. Take the Broncos at home. 

Broncos 20 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Steelers +6.5 at Chargers

The Steelers could be down to their third-string QB, but their defense is stout, and the Chargers have lots of key injuries of their own. Bottom line, this line was too big, especially given it'll likely be a home crowd for the Steelers. 

Chargers 19 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Lions +4 at Packers

This might be a mistake, but my thought was to fade the Lions early-season improvement against a tough team at Lambeau. But Lambeau is an easy trip for them, and the Lions are coming off a bye. I'm taking the Packers, but it's probably my least enthusiastic pick. 

Packers 23 - 17

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 4-11, won my best bet (the Steelers), and went 0-4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm now 32-46 on the year, 3-2 on best bets and 8-16-1 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.