This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 7-8-1 last week (I've oddly been right around .500 every week), won my best bet (Saints) and went 2-2-1 in the SuperContest.
I thought this was a tough slate, but for now I like the Titans, Dolphins, Chargers and Browns.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers -7 at Eagles
I made this line 7.5 so I'm on the Bucs. It's not a strong lean as Tampa's secondary is bad, and it's a big number on the road. But Jalen Hurts hasn't looked sharp as a passer, and I expect the Bucs' offense to roll. Lay the wood.
Buccaneers 31 - 23
LONDON GAME
Dolphins -3.5 at Jaguars*
If Tua Tagovailoa plays -- and it looks likely -- I have to lay the wood. The Jaguars are terrible, and while Urban Meyer has gotten a brief respite thanks to Jon Gruden, I expect his team to get exposed again on Sunday. Take the Dolphins.
*game in London
Dolphins 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Texans +9.5 at Colts
This is where I set the line, so I could go either way. Both teams lost heart-breaking games last week, but it seemed like Carson Wentz turned the corner, and the Colts defense held up until the last 20 minutes against the Ravens. Give me Indy.
Colts 33 - 20
Packers -4.5 at Bears
I dislike the Packers -- they're a poorly constructed team around a good quarterback, wide receiver and running back. The defense isn't good, and they have no other outside weapons.
I went 7-8-1 last week (I've oddly been right around .500 every week), won my best bet (Saints) and went 2-2-1 in the SuperContest.
I thought this was a tough slate, but for now I like the Titans, Dolphins, Chargers and Browns.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers -7 at Eagles
I made this line 7.5 so I'm on the Bucs. It's not a strong lean as Tampa's secondary is bad, and it's a big number on the road. But Jalen Hurts hasn't looked sharp as a passer, and I expect the Bucs' offense to roll. Lay the wood.
Buccaneers 31 - 23
LONDON GAME
Dolphins -3.5 at Jaguars*
If Tua Tagovailoa plays -- and it looks likely -- I have to lay the wood. The Jaguars are terrible, and while Urban Meyer has gotten a brief respite thanks to Jon Gruden, I expect his team to get exposed again on Sunday. Take the Dolphins.
*game in London
Dolphins 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Texans +9.5 at Colts
This is where I set the line, so I could go either way. Both teams lost heart-breaking games last week, but it seemed like Carson Wentz turned the corner, and the Colts defense held up until the last 20 minutes against the Ravens. Give me Indy.
Colts 33 - 20
Packers -4.5 at Bears
I dislike the Packers -- they're a poorly constructed team around a good quarterback, wide receiver and running back. The defense isn't good, and they have no other outside weapons. Still, I'm laying the wood here because Aaron Rodgers is that good, and I'm not yet buying Justin Fields.
Packers 27 - 20
Chiefs -7 at Team
I'm sick of typing out Football Team every time, and it's still a rotten-from-the-top franchise that has temporarily deflected attention away from itself and the NFL's investigation into it. Unfortunately, I made this line 6.5, and that means I'm on them, but I don't feel strongly about it.
Chiefs 33 - 27
Vikings -1 at Panthers
This line makes no sense, as I thought the Panthers would be favored by more than three, and I'd be on Minnesota, but apparently the market is even more on the Vikings than I am. I see the case, as Sam Darnold has imploded of late, and the Vikings are desperate for a win, but I'll take the home dog.
Panthers 24 - 23
Chargers +3 at Ravens
This line seems excessive to me, since the Chargers have the better defense, and the Ravens just came off an overtime win on Monday night. Take the points.
Chargers 31 - 30
Bengals -3.5 at Lions
This is where I set the line. I'd like to fade both these teams after last week's losses, but I'll lay the wood as that seems more contrarian to me.
Bengals 27 - 23
Rams -10.5 at Giants
This line assumes Mike Glennon will be the starter, and it's hard to see the Giants keeping pace in that case, without Saquon Barkley and most of their receiving corps. If it were Daniel Jones, I'd snap-call the Giants, but I imagine the line would go to seven-ish in that case. Lay the wood.
Rams 33 - 9
LATE GAMES
Cardinals +3 at Browns
I made this line four on purpose so I'd be on the Browns. The Cardinals are good, but the Browns are stout on both sides of the ball, and they're at home. Lay the wood.
Browns 26 - 20
Raiders +3.5 at Broncos
I don't know what to make of the Gruden fiasco, how it will impact the Raiders' readiness for this game. If Gruden were around, I'd have taken the Raiders for sure, but now it's a coin flip. I guess I'll stick with it.
Broncos 23 - 20
Cowboys -4 at Patriots
I made this line 3.5. The Cowboys are flying high, but this is a big line to lay in New England. Take the points.
Patriots 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Seahawks +5 at Steelers
I'm probably missing something because I made this line eight. I know the Steelers' offense is bad, but without Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are bad on both sides of the ball. Lay the wood.
Steelers 24 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Bills -5.5 at Titans
The Bills are good, but I like the Titans in this spot, given it's a Monday night home game, they're getting 5.5 and Buffalo just avenged their conference title game loss in Kansas City. Take the points.
Titans 27 - 26
Last week, I went 7-8-1 ATS to go to 37-41-2 on the year, won my best bet (Saints) to go to 5-0, and went 2-2-1 in the SuperContest to go 12-12-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
