NFL Betting Picks and Predictions: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
A key late-season clash between two contenders that have lost two of their last three and boasting legendary quarterbacks unfolds at Acrisure Stadium. Let's dig into best bets to consider.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Bills -170 (BetMGM) / Steelers +150 (FanDuel)
- Point spread: Bills -3 (ESPN Bet) / Bills +3 (BetMGM)
- Totals: Over 45.5 points (DraftKings) / Under 46.0 points (BetRivers)
The spread for this game has seen some noteworthy downward movement since prior to Week 12, unsurprising given how poorly the Bills performed against the aggressive defense of the Texans on Thursday night to open that slate. The number was Bills -4.5 before that game kicked off, but it dipped a full point in the immediate aftermath of Buffalo's loss. It subsequently settled into the 3-3.5-point range and bounced between those numbers heading into the weekend.
The total has also seen a dip, and even the confirmed return of Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers hasn't reversed that trend. The number was a solid 47.5 before Week 12 kicked off and then actually rose to 48.5 early this week following the completion of the Week 12 slate, which saw Pittsburgh put up 28 points against the Bears in a loss. However, a downward trend began at mid-week this week, leading to a dip to as low as 45.5 points at some sportsbooks.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Picks
The 7-4 Bills can't seem to separate from teams very much these days, sporting a -3.0-point average scoring margin in the last three contests and a modest +4.0 on the road for the season. The 6-5 Steelers aren't much better, posting a +1.0 figure for the season and +3.8 at home. Both these teams also do their fair share of running, particularly the Bills, as their 47.4% rush-play rate ranks No. 6 in the league.
Therefore, the chances of another close and perhaps somewhat slow-moving game are high, even with Rodgers coming back from a one-game absence. The future Hall of Famer isn't 100 percent, and he's got the unenviable task of facing a Bills secondary that's allowed a league-low 148.6 passing yards per road game and miserly 59.7 percent completion rate in that split.
It doesn't take much to encourage Arthur Smith to lean on his ground attack, and with the Bills surrendering an AFC-high 5.3 RB yards per carry, a heavy dose of Jaylen Warren with some Kenneth Gainwell sprinkled in is likely to be a preferred method of attack for Pittsburgh. That, combined with Buffalo allowing an NFL-low 56.2 plays per road game, could lead to limited opportunities for the Steelers to pile up enough points to keep up with the Bills.
Granted, it's fair to say Josh Allen and co. have looked far from threatening in several games this season, but the 40-point upside is definitely there. The Steelers defense has been quite an enigma this season, but it does get a key piece back in Alex Highsmith this week. On the flip side, Allen can be matchup-proof and James Cook isn't too far behind him. Pittsburgh has been very good against the run at home, but Cook is on pace for a career-best season and already over 1,000 yards, with the threat of both Allen's arm and legs helping keep the opposition off balance.
Ultimately, this is a game where we could see Allen put on his proverbial Superman cape if necessary to ensure the Bills don't fall further behind the Patriots in the AFC East. The Steelers can be had through the air, and new addition Brandin Cooks could pay immediate dividends for Buffalo after reports this week indicated he'd picked up the playbook very quickly. Dalton Kincaid also has a chance to return from a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury, a development that would further fortify the air attack.
Bills vs. Steelers Best Bets:
- Bills moneyline (-170 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Under 45.5 points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Jaylen Warren Over 60.5 rushing yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bills vs. Steelers Prediction
Bills 24, Steelers 20
As already covered, we should be in for a wire-to-wire battle here that should be about as close as oddsmakers predict. It's a key matchup for both squads, and I'll give the slightest tie-breaker to the team with the younger, more dynamic quarterback in Allen and the deeper depth chart on offense as well. However, due to the weather and the fact Pittsburgh's defense is set to benefit from the return of Highsmith, I envision a lower-scoring affair.
