DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 10

I have written about the quarterback position, running backs and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "Cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and 3-point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is because we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between what positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times the matchups and pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.

Let's look at the wide receiver position and build a system to cash game targets.

WR Stats (1019 total through Week 10)
Average Score: 10.65
Average Salary: $4631
Average Value: 2.38

WR (Hit at least 3x – through Week 10)
Average Score: 19.34
Average Salary: $4429
Average Value: 4.44
Average Percent Hit Value: 30%

If you look at this chart below, the sweet spot to find value is between $3100-$4900, but also in the $6000-$6900 range. Ideally if you can find three wide receivers in that $6000-$6900 range each week that have a low standard deviation and good matchup, those are the best cash game plays.

Average per week: 30.0

As you can see, the amount of wide receivers that hit 3x each week is around 30 and the total pool is 100 or so.

Additional Statistics:

• Six players have a higher weekly average, higher average value, and lower standard deviation vs the rest of the field: Cole Beasley, Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Jamison Crowder, Michael Thomas, Ty Montgomery.
• 11 players have an average value of at least 3x and standard deviation 8.0 or less: Marqise Lee, Taylor Gabriel, Rishard Matthews, Tyreek Hill, Eli Rogers, Adam Thielen, Russell Shepard, Steve Smith, Eddie Royal, Marquise Goodwin, and Brandon LaFell
• Four players have at least averaged 14 points per game and a standard deviation of less than 8.4: Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Matthews, Randall Cobb, and Jarvis Landry
• Seven players have averaged at least 14 points per game with a value of at least 2.7x: Tyrell Williams, Kenny Britt, Terrelle Pryor, Willie Snead, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs
• The following players have hit 3x or more at least four times:
• Tyrell Williams (7)
• Cole Beasley, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Britt, Michael Thomas, Rishard Matthews (6)
• Davante Adams, Kenny Stills, Marqise Lee, Michael Crabtree, Stefon Diggs, Terrelle Pryor (5)
• Amari Cooper, Brian Quick, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jeremy Kerley, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, Mohamed Sanu, Pierre Garcon, Quincy Enunwa, Robert Woods, Sterling Shepard, Terrance Williams, Tyreek Hill (4)
• The following teams have allowed opposing wide receivers to hit at least 3x value 12 times: Titans – 16, Browns – 13, Chiefs, 49ers, Bucs – 12

For cash games, you want wide receivers with the combined highest-average points per game and lowest standard deviation.