DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 7

So far I have written about both quarterbacks and running backs regarding how to approach each position in GPPs. Now that we have seven weeks in the book, I wanted to look back on the data and show you how to find those "GPP" or tournament plays at the wide receiver position that you need to finish in first place.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average first place score in most large field tournaments is around 200-250 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the player's score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 200-250 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 4x. The challenge in this is on the higher-priced players it is very hard to achieve 4x or greater because there are only so many points to be scored. On the flip side, take a $3,000 player. They only have to score 12-15 points to achieve 4-5x. In this case, is that enough to win a tournament? Often times it is not. So you really need to find a player who can hit for more value in the 6-8x range at that price. This would also allow you to take a 3x-4x player that has more of floor vs. ceiling.

Let's look at the wide receiver position and build a system to tournament targets:

WR Stats (739 total through Sunday Week 7)
Average Score: 10.56
Average Salary: $4615
Average Value: 2.35

RB (Hit at least 4x – 123 through Sunday Week 7)
Average Score: 23.00
Average Salary: $4343
Average Value: 5.42
Average Percent That Hit Value: 16%

Salary Breakdown (# of times hit 4x or greater/total number of players)
$3000: 27/183 (15%)
$3100 - $3900: 41/196 (21%)
$4000 - $4900: 24/122 (20%)
$5000 - $5900: 7/59 (12%)
$6000 - $6900: 12/72 (17%)
$7000 - $7900: 7/65 (11%)
$8000 - $8900: 3/26 (12%)
$9000 - $10,000: 1/16 (6%)

You can see from this data above that wide receivers priced in the $3100-$4900 range have the higher success rate of hitting at least 4x value.

Week – (# of players to hit 4x or greater)
Week 1: 17
Week 2: 21
Week 3: 16
Week 4: 18
Week 5: 16
Week 6: 16
Week 7: 18

Average per week: 17.4

As you can see, there are only 16 to 18 wide receivers each week that hit 4x and you have to start 4, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key. This is also noting that you must play two running backs and most often you are playing a running back in the FLEX position.

• The following teams have allowed at least two wide receivers to hit 6x value:
• Cardinals, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Jaguars, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders


• The following teams have allowed at least four wide receivers to hit 4x value:
• Browns – 8; Patriots, Bears – 7; Bills, Giants, Jets, Rams, Raiders, 49ers – 5


• The following teams have allowed at least 20 points to wide receivers four or more times:
• Raiders – 7; Titans – 6; Bears, Browns, Rams, Jets, Bucs – 5; Dolphins, Patriots, Chiefs, 49ers – 4


• The following teams have allowed at least 30 points to wide receivers at least two times:
• Ravens – 3; Panthers, Bears, Browns, Lions, Packers, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers - 2


• The following teams have allowed a wide receiver to hit 4x value two times or less:
• Broncos – 0; Seahawks, Redskins – 1; Colts, Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles – 2


• The following teams have allowed at least 20 points to wide receivers two times or less:
• Vikings – 0; Broncos, Texans, Eagles, Steelers, Seahawks – 1; Cardinals, Bills, Cowboys - 2


• One team has allowed over 100 total yards and least two touchdowns on three occasions: 49ers


• The following wide receivers have at least three games of hitting 4x value:
• Brian Quick, Cole Beasley, Eddie Royal, Jamison Crowder, Jeremy Kerley, Michael Thomas, Mike Wallace, Tavon Austin, Tyrell Williams, Will Fuller
• Profile here is smaller slot receivers who get a lot of catches but never have monster games so their salary stays steady week to week. Also, wide receivers that are deep threat options.


• The following players have at least three games over 20 points or more this season:
• A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton.

Benchmarks:

• Wide receivers at the $3000 price need to get 65 total yards with at least one touchdown
• When you go to the $4000-$4900 range, the average yards jumps from 81.1 to 102.9 so there is a much greater emphasis on hitting the 100-yard bonus.
• For $6000 and greater, there is more emphasis on getting at least 1.6 touchdowns
• 81% of the time the WR scored at least one touchdown
• 18% of the time the WR scored at least two touchdowns
• 44% of the time the WR had at least 100 receiving yards
• Out of the 35 WRs that did not score a touchdown, their salaries ranged from $3000-$6400
• 67% had at least 7 receptions
• 46% had at least 100 receiving yards

• Antonio Brown has five games of at least 21 points
• Mike Evans has five games of at least 19 points
• A.J. Green has three games of 33 points or more
• T.Y. Hilton has three games of 29 points or more
• Michael Thomas has five games of at least 11 points
• Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder have scored at least 10 points in six games
• Kenny Britt has scored at least 10 points in five games
• Sterling Shepard has four consecutive weeks of eight points or less
• Allen Hurns has at least eight points in six games
• DeSean Jackson has scored less than 10 points in five games
• Julian Edelman has not scored above 15 points this year
• Tajae Sharpe has one game over 10 points

Wide Receivers (Week 1-7 before MNF)