DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 8

The last three weeks I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be: (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between which positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times, the matchups and/or pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.

Let's look at the quarterback position and build a system to cash game targets.

QB Stats (total through Sunday Week 8)
Average Score: 17.85
Average Salary: $6173
Average Value: 2.88

QB (Hit at least 3x – through Sunday Week 8)
Average Score: 24.62
Average Salary: $6206
Average Value: 3.96
Average Pct Hit Value: 12/249 = 45%

Salary Breakdown (No. of times hit 3x or greater/total number of players)
$5000 – 14/33: (42%)
$5100 – $5900: 39/84 (46%)
$6000 – $6900: 33/71 (46%)
$7000 – $7900: 23/55 (42%)
$8000 – $8500: 3/5 (60%)

Week – (No. of players to hit 3x or greater)
Week 1: 10
Week 2: 17
Week 3: 12
Week 4: 15
Week 5: 14
Week 6: 16
Week 7: 12
Week 8: 16

Average per week: 14.0

As you can see, there are 12 to 14 quarterbacks each week that hit 3x, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key.

Benchmarks:

• In a nut shell: 300 yards passing and two touchdowns should be your target for a quarterback, regardless of salary.

• Quarterbacks less than $6,000 do not need many points to hit value, which makes sense why there is a strong contention of players that always just go cheap and best matchup. It also helps if they are a running quarterback.

• Once a quarterback hits $6,000 or more, they need to hit the 300 yards passing and 2.5 touchdowns mark.

• As you get higher than $7,000, you are looking at 350 yards passing and three touchdowns.

• 20 percent of quarterbacks had at least one rushing touchdown; 16 out of 23 were less than $6,000

• 24 percent had at least 350 yards passing; 70 percent of this group had at least three touchdown passes, 70 percent had at least 40 passing attempts; 67 percent were at least $6,500

• 39 quarterbacks scored 10 points or less; 72 percent were $5,900 or less

Additional Statistics

• Quarterbacks with at least two games of 30 points or more:

Tom Brady (3), Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan

• Quarterbacks with at least three games of 25 points or more:

Drew Brees (4), Matt Ryan (4), Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady

• Quarterbacks with at least four games of 20 points or more:

Andy Dalton (6), Andrew Luck (5), Derek Carr (5), Drew Brees (5), Matt Ryan (5), Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger

• Teams that have allowed at least two games of 30 points or more:

Raiders (3), Titans, Panthers, Bengals, Lions

• Teams that have allowed at least three games of 25 points or more:

Lions (4), Jets (4), Falcons, Panthers, Bengals, Colts, Raiders, Bucs

• Teams that have allowed at least four games of 20 points or more:

Bengals (5), Browns (5), Lions (5), Jets (5), Falcons, Panthers, Raiders

• Teams that have allowed less than 2x value at least three or more games:

Eagles (5), Bills (4), Broncos (4), Cardinals, Ravens, Dolphins, Patriots

• Teams that have allowed less than 10 points at least twice:

Eagles (4), Ravens (3), Bills (3), Patriots (3), Cardinals, Bengals, Texans, Vikings, Raiders, 49ers, Bucs

Quarterbacks (Week 1-8 before MNF)

For cash games, you want the quarterbacks with the combined highest average points per game and lowest standard deviation.