This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
This week will a unique week as several games should be impacted by weather. This will be another week where we see a lot of backups (especially running backs) come into play.
Games
My favorite team to take against the spread this week is the Baltimore Ravens laying four points at home. Pittsburgh just got off a tough road win in Tennessee and Baltimore got an extra week to get healthy and prepare for this game. I wouldn't mind taking a smaller wager on the Ravens -13.5 which you can get at +300 odds.
It looks like it's going to be a windy game in Green Bay and as a result I'd expect there to be more running and less passing. This should chew up the clock and put the over/under into play. I like under 50.5 points in this one and as of Friday night, there were very few props on this game and none for player props. This shows the book is aware of the weather concerns.
My second favorite team to wager on is the Dallas Cowboys +10.5 points. The Eagles don't strike me as a team that'll blow out anyone, even at home. While Ben DiNucci may not inspire a lot of confidence, he was a standout at James Madison University. Seriously though, he's got a ton of weapons, and the Cowboys should try and run the ball as much as possible. DiNucci didn't look great in relief of Andy Dalton last week but a full week of snaps with the first team should help.
Finally, I (probably unwisely) will back the Giants yet again. Their defense is actually good and Daniel Jones has looked better throwing three touchdowns in the last two games. The line moved from 10.5 to 12.5 for no apparent reason so it's kind of like you're getting a two-point teaser taking them. We also all know Tom Brady has a tough time beating the Giants when there's a big game (kidding, kidding).
Player Props
Rashard Higgins over 42.5 receiving yards - While he won't be as efficient as he was last week (six catches on seven targets) he should be the main beneficiary of the Odell Beckham injury. Again, the weather is a concern here but I don't think it's going to be windy enough to put Higgins on the under here. If the weather concerns are toned down, this is my favorite bet of the week.
Henry Ruggs over 33.5 receiving yards - Derek Carr is slated to have around 250 passing yards so it makes sense they all don't go to Nelson Agholor. I really feel like Ruggs could get this prop on one play and while the Raiders have Darren Waller, Ruggs should get at least four targets in this game.
Cam Newton over 46.5 rushing yards - Newton has gone over this mark in three of his five games this season. He's coming off a lowly 19-yard rushing performance last week so this line seems a bit fishy. The Bills have been terrible against the run and as a home team that's 5-2 facing a 2-4 team, they should be more a favorite than four points. With their two top receivers out (Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry) the Patriots will likely rely heavily on the rushing attack.
Cooper Kupp over 58.5 receiving yards - I'm not sure who Xavien Howard will shadow but I'll guess he's on Robert Woods. Kupp hasn't hit this over in the last two games, I doubt this will happen for three straight. In fact, I think this is over by the third quarter. The Dolphins give up 178.7 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, the eighth-most in the league.
DK Metcalf over 73.5 receiving yards - Last week it was the Tyler Lockett show and I'd actually put a little something on his under (72.5 receiving yards) this week. Getting back to Metcalf he's coming off a season-low two catches on a season-low five targets meaning he should see an uptick in those numbers this week. Before last game, he had at least 92 receiving yards in his previous five contests and I don't mind double-dipping with his -115 anytime touchdown odds as well. While I don't like it quite as much, Brandon Aiyuk's over 53.5 receiving yards is interesting considering the Seahawks give up the most receiving yards (280.2!) to opposing wide receivers of any team in the league.
Player Touchdowns
Gus Edwards +180, J.K. Dobbins +220 - There's a line here for Mark Ingram (+240) but considering he's listed as doubtful coming out of the bye it's highly unlikely we see him. That should mean the Ravens utilize just Edwards and Dobbins as their running backs. I like taking both here as just one scoring will net a profit and if both find the end zone it'll be a bonus.
DeeJay Dallas +200 - Dallas is the last man standing in Seattle as every other running back is banged up. Chris Carson (foot) hasn't been ruled out yet, but seems to be heading in that direction. Running backs have done extremely well playing alongside Russell Wilson and while the 49ers defense is decent, Dallas should get enough touches to hit pay dirt.
Ezekiel Elliott +105 - This has to be the best touchdown odds Zeke has had in a long time and the reason they're this good is that he hasn't scored in the last two games. He's down to playing with the third-string quarterback but that should also mean he'll have a big workload. On average, the Eagles' defense has given up one rushing touchdown to a running back per game this season.
Jalen Reagor +210 - This will be his first game back from a thumb injury, and he showed some downfield explosiveness earlier in the season. After a slow start, we've seen Carson Wentz play much better as of late and his numbers would be much better if his receivers didn't drop so many passes. Reagor should be able to behind the defense and find the end zone.
