Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Published on December 22, 2022

Weather is the big story this week with winter storms hitting the Midwest hard. Depending how conditions look Saturday morning, the Saints-Browns game has a shot to settle with the lowest over/under in more than a decade (most books had it at 32 or 32.5 as of Thursday morning). Six other games have over/unders below 40, including the Jags-Jets matchup on what's expected to be a rainy, windy Thursday night in the Meadowlands.

Between bad weather, the usual assortment of injuries and a spread-out schedule for a holiday weekend, this is one of the most chaotic weeks I can remember for being a fantasy manager. I know I'm not the only one who will be ducking away from family to check game-time decisions and tweak lineups.

Anyway, I'll discuss other stuff besides weather below, but first let's look at the forecasts for games with serious concerns there. Note that wind and snow are more likely to be factors in the Midwest, especially Cleveland, while most of the East Coast games (besides TNF) are simply expected to be cold without much precipitation or winds above 20 mph.

JAX-NYJ — O/U: 37 — rain (possibly heavy) with winds around 15-25 mph

NO-CLE — O/U: 32.5 — light-to-medium snow, sustained winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, high of 14 degrees

ATL-BAL — O/U 35.5 — no precipitation, winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30, high of 22 degrees

BUF-CHI — O/U 40.5 — light snow possible, winds around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35, high of 12 degrees

SEA-KC — O/U 49 — no precipitation, winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25. High of 16 degrees.

CIN-NE — O/U 41.5 — no precipitation, winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 3. High of 20 degrees.

LV-PIT — O/U — no precipitation, winds around 15 mph with gusts to 30. High of 10 degrees.

The current estimates for the "feels like" temperature at kickoff of some of the outdoor games this Saturday:
- Bills at Bears: -11°
- Seahawks at Chiefs: -6°
- Saints at Browns: -9°
- Texans at Titans: 5°
- Falcons at Ravens: 7°
- Raiders at Steelers: -4°
🥶🥶🥶🥶

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 20, 2022

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. GB) — 53% started

Start Over — Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG), Tom Brady (at ARZ),

The Packers rank average or better for most pass-defense efficiency metrics and have allowed only the 22nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but what would normally be a middling matchup suddenly looks tantalizing when comparing a warm, sunny Sunday in Miami to a cold, windy Saturday across the East Coast and Midwest. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both healthy and thriving, Miami enters the weekend with the second largest implied total (26.75) of any team, though it's a distant second to KC's 29.5. Note that weather isn't a concern after Saturday, with the Sunday games played in Miami, LA and Arizona while MNF will take place in Indy's dome.

Other Good Matchups: Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG), Tom Brady (at ARZ), Daniel Jones (at MIN), Aaron Rodgers (at MIA), Tyler Huntley (vs. ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Raheem Mostert (vs. GB) — 40% started

Start Over — Latavius Murray (at LAR), Zonovan Knight (vs. JAX), David Montgomery (vs. BUF)

Coach Mike McDaniel expects Jeff Wilson (hip) to return this week, but even if that happens it'll likely be in a secondary role. Mostert got far more work* than Wilson in the Week 13 loss to their former team, the 49ers, and the 30-year-old then ran for 136 yards against Buffalo this past Saturday after Wilson hurt his hip Week 14. Now, Mostert should lead the way for Miami's ground game against a defense that's given up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs while ranking dead last in DVOA against the run.

*7-1 carries, 0-2 targets, 61/37 snap share

Zack Moss (vs. LAC) — 10% started

Start Over — Tyler Allgeier (at BAL), Antonio Gibson (at SF), AJ Dillon (at MIA)

I talked about Moss in Backfield Breakdown earlier this week after he dominated Indy's backfield work in the second half of the meltdown in Minneapolis™. He and Deon Jackson split playing time throughout the first half after Jonathan Taylor's ankle injury, but Moss then took 83 percent of snaps in the third quarter and 13 of the final 17 snaps (including all eight in OT, after Jackson lost a fumble late in the fourth). It'll likely be Moss, QB Nick Foles and WR Michael Pittman leading the way Monday night when the Colts host a Chargers defense that allowed a 100-yard rusher four of the past five weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Isiah Pacheco (vs. SEA), J.K. Dobbins (vs. ATL), Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (vs. LV)

Wide Receivers 👍

Mike Evans (at ARZ) — 79% started

Start Over — Amari Cooper (vs. NO), Jerry Jeudy (at LAR), Christian Kirk (at NYJ)

It's been a rough couple months for Evans, who hadn't cracked 60 yards since late October prior to a five-catch, 83-yard performance last week against Cincinnati. There may be a better reward for patience Sunday night, with Evans facing a banged-up Arizona secondary that isn't all that good even at full strength. Top cornerback Byron Murphy (back) and No. 2 Marco Wilson (neck) both missed Sunday's loss in Denver, as did backup Antonio Hamilton (back/illness). This Cardinals team in its current state is capable of making even the 2022 Bucs look good.

DJ Moore (vs. DET) — 47% started

Start Over — Gabe Davis (at CHI), Chris Olave (at CLE), Michael Gallup (vs. PHI)

The Lions have continued bleeding points to wide receivers even as their defense has improved in real life and become formidable against the run. Only two teams have allowed more for the season, and Detroit has a good enough offense to put up some points and prevent the Panthers from sitting on the ball and calling run play after run play the way they might like. The risk, of course, is apparent in Moore's game log... he has four games with 69 or more yards and a TD but also six games with less than 30 yards and no TD.

Other Good Matchups: Chris Godwin & Julio Jones / Russell Gage (at ARZ), Brandin Cooks & Chris Moore (vs. TEN), Elijah Moore (vs. JAX), Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins & Richie James (at MIN), Adam Thielen & K.J. Osborn (vs. NYG), George Pickens (vs. LV). Marquise Goodwin (at KC)

Tight Ends 👍

Taysom Hill (at CLE) — 16% started

Start Over — Tyler Higbee (vs. DEN), Greg Dulcich (at LAR), Hunter Henry (vs. CIN)

Terrible weather could work in Hill's favor, especially given that the Saints don't have a backup running back they trust (David Johnson!) since Mark Ingram suffered a season-ending knee injury. We've seen Hill take as many as 10 carries in a game this year (Week 8 vs. LVR) and over the past four games he's averaged 6.3 for 26.3 yards while adding 1.0 catches for 12.5 yards, one receiving TD and one passing TD. Don't expect a passing or receiving score this week, but he might get more playing time and carries than he normally does.

Other Good Matchups: T.J. Hockenson (vs. NYG), Noah Fant (at KC)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Gardner Minshew (at DAL) — 9% started

Start Instead — Daniel Jones (at MIN), Aaron Rodgers (at MIA)

I picked up Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers in one league to prevent Jalen Hurts' manager (who I face this week) from getting them, essentially leaving him to choose between Minshew and Derek Carr. As great as the situation around him is, Minshew won't have things easy against a top defense on the road. Don't dismiss the Cowboys defense after one bad week in Jacksonville; it's still a top 10 unit by nearly any metric, and top five in NY/A allowed (5.4, 3rd) and DVOA against the pass (-14.8%, 4th).

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (vs. BUF), Joe Burrow (at NE), Trevor Lawrence (at NYJ), Deshaun Watson (vs. NO), Derek Carr (at PIT), Taylor Heinicke (at SF)

Running Backs 👎

David Montgomery (vs. BUF) — 50% started

Start Instead — Najee Harris (vs. LV), J.K. Dobbins (vs. ATL), Isiah Pacheco (vs. SEA)

It's too bad a matchup with the Bills (No. 3 in run defense DVOA) isn't Montgomery's only problem this week. Khalil Herbert (hip) has been designated to return from injured reserve, and the bad weather could dictate an extremely run-heavy gameplan that favors Herbert (the superior runner) being on the field over Montgomery (a better blocker and receivers). Monty topped 14 PPR points each of the last four weeks with Herbert on IR, but prior to that he'd scored single digits in four out of five while sharing work.

D'Onta Foreman (vs. DET) — 35% started

Start Instead — Zonovan Knight (vs. JAX), Cam Akers (vs. DEN), Rachaad White (at ARZ)

Nobody besides maybe Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn expected the Lions' run defense to become dominant this year. It certainly wasn't in September, nor October, but they've given up only 420 rushing yards over the past five games since Justin Fields and the Bears put up 258 in Week 10. The recent stretch includes a 15-22-0 rushing line for Saquon Barkley, a 15-23-1 line for Dalvin Cook and 13-54-0 for Travis Etienne. That spells trouble for Foreman, who played only 30 percent of snaps in last week's loss to Pittsburgh and only 47 percent the week before in a win over Seattle. There's not much margin for error with Chuba Hubbard now taking most passing downs and a portion of the early down carries.

Other Tough Matchups: Miles Sanders (at DAL), Brian Robinson & Antonio Gibson (at SF), Cordarrelle Patterson (at BAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

Gabe Davis (at CHI)— 53% started

Start Instead — Brandon Aiyuk (vs. WAS), Diontae Johnson (vs. LV), Adam Thielen (vs. NYG)

With 70 percent of his targets this year traveling 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage, per PFF, Davis is especially vulnerable to the impacts of bad weather. That's not to say Josh Allen won't take a few shots downfield anyway, but the projections for a windy Saturday in Chicago favor larger target shares for Stefon Diggs, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and/or the running backs. Passes within 10 yards of the LOS account for 56.2 percent of Diggs' targets, 75.4 percent of McKenzie's and 58.7 percent of Knox's.

Jakobi Meyers (vs. CIN) — 11% started

Start Instead — Drake London (at BAL), Joshua Palmer (at IND), George Pickens (vs. LV)

The massive target shares from September and October have disappeared, with Meyers seeing between four and six looks in each of his past six games. He's still been efficient, but it's also been more than a month since he played even two-thirds of the team's offensive snaps in a game. He came back from a concussion last week and played 62 percent of snaps in the loss to Las Vegas, managing only 2-47-0 before his game-ending guffaw.

It turns out Meyers is dealing with a shoulder injury again, limited in practice this week, so it's possible he misses out on some routes again this Saturday, rather than going out for a pass on nearly every pass play the way he did earlier in the year when he averaged 7.7 targets over his first six appearances. There's also the matter of suboptimal weather in Foxborough, and standout Bengals slot corner Mike Hilton has allowed only 0.97 yards per cover snap in the slot (11th out of 42 CBs with 100-plus slot coverage snaps, per PFF)

Other Tough Matchups: Mike Williams (vs. IND), Tee Higgins & Tyler Boyd (at NE), Amari Cooper & Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. NO); Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed (at CLE), Zay Jones (vs. NYJ), Gabe Davis (at CHI), Michael Gallup (vs. PHI)

Tight Ends 👎

David Njoku (vs. NO) — 46% started

Start Instead — Darren Waller (at PIT), Dallas Goedert (at DAL), Gerald Everett (at IND)

It's a shame about the snow, because Njoku's usage is peaking at the perfect time, with 15 targets and 95 percent snap share over the past two games. He might play that many snaps again, but in a game with real risk for pre-merger passing volume. On top of that, Deshaun Watson hasn't played well so far and will be facing a veteran Saints defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points since Week 9.

Other Tough Matchups: Tyler Conklin (vs. JAX), Juwan Johnson (at CLE), Cole Kmet (vs. BUF)