Exploiting the Matchups: Week 3 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Updated on September 21, 2023 2:04PM EST

Hopefully you'll still trust me after I doubted Puka Nacua's ability to overcome a matchup with the 49ers defense. He's locked into lineups now and should remain there the following week even if Cincinnati shuts him down Monday night.

The Rams have become a weekly must-watch with their three unlikely fantasy starters, made all the more fascinating by Cooper Kupp's looming return from injured reserve. Kupp is eligible to return Week 5 but won't necessarily be ready, and at this point it's hard to see how anything but an injury can keep Van Jefferson among the Rams' top three WRs once/if everyone is healthy.

Then again, even Jefferson could have a couple decent weeks here with defenses focusing more on Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Those three, RB Kyren Williams and TE Tyler Higbee barely came off the field last week, and it does wonders for fantasy production when a team — often one coached by Sean McVay — has barely any carries or targets going to backups. Most teams use at least two RBs for a handful of touches and then have backup WRs and TEs that combine to average at least three or four targets per week.

The 49ers, Bengals and Colts also ran their top guys hard last week without ceding many snaps to backups, though in San Francisco's case an upcoming Thursday night game (combined with injuries) probably complicates that plan. Below we'll focus on individual matchups more than anything else, but with a

We're seeing some huge value swings this year, more so than usual even for September, including oddities like Zack Moss occupying an every-down role but then potentially having no value beyond the next two weeks.

If you're looking for role/usage analysis from the first two weeks, be sure to check out Box Score Breakdown, Backfield Breakdown and Target Breakdown — my weekly trio of columns (posted every Monday/Tuesday) looking at everything from route shares to air yards to TE pass-blocking rates to figure out what's changed and why it matters (or not). Matchup analysis like what you'll find below is great, but really it's more important to have a good read on roles and usage, particularly in September after we've had an eighth-month break between meaningful games and have all the draft picks and free agents on new teams.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kirk Cousins — 53% started

Start Over — Dak Prescott (at ARZ), Justin Fields (at KC), Deshaun Watson (vs. TEN)

Chargers-Vikings has one of the highest over/unders (54) we'll see all season and is either a pick'em or 1-point spread at most sportsbooks. Perfect conditions for a shootout, in other words, with both teams sporting talented offenses, struggling defenses and an injured or untrusted lead back. It's the type of game that could end up high-scoring even if both defenses play better than they have been, as many of the unsuccessful plays on offense will be incompletions (or interceptions) rather than stuffed run plays that eat up 25-to-40 seconds of clock.

Elevated play volume may not even be necessary for Cousins against a defense that's struggling for reasons all too familiar to Chargers fans. In addition to the accustomed subpar coaching, the Chargers have dealt with injuries — ILB Eric Kendricks out with a hamstring injury while OLB Joey Bosa plays through one — and then have big-name players like S Derwin James and CB Asante Samuel that are simply underperforming. Cousins, meanwhile, should get LT Christian Darrisaw (ankle) back on his blindside this Sunday after throwing for 364 yards and four TDs against the Eagles with Darrisaw and C Garrett Bradbury (back) both out.

Other Good Matchups: Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU), Justin Herbert (at MIN), Kirk Cousins (vs. LAC), Desmond Ridder (at DET)

Running Backs 👍

Raheem Mostert — 68% started

Start Over — Miles Sanders (at SEA), Najee Harris (at LV), Dameon Pierce (at JAX)

It feels like only a matter of time before something goes wrong here, be it a Mostert injury, Jeff Wilson (abdomen) returning from IR with a significant role or De'Von Achane seizing a larger share of the workload. On the other hand, Mostert is pretty safe if we're just looking at Week 3, playing at home against the 0-2 Broncos as a six-point favorite in an offense that's allowed him to score three TDs while dominating RB touches. It might even work in his favor if the Dolphins have Tyreek Hill (quad) but no Jaylen Waddle (concussion) this weekend, as they'd still be able to keep safeties honest and would need a little more from their complementary guys, i.e., Mostert, Achane, TE Durham Smythe, WRs Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft.

Gus Edwards — 30% started

Start Over — AJ Dillon (vs. NO), Tyler Allgeier (at DET), Breece Hall (vs. NE)

This one sets up nicely for Edwards with the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown and Justice Hill on the injury report due to turf toe. Edwards is in the low-end-RB2 range if Hill suits up, or high-end-RB2 territory if his teammate is out, with Lamar Jackson's presence under center allowing the Ravens to maintain a reasonably efficient running game without LT Ronnie Stanley (knee) or C Tyler Linderbaum (ankle). It helps that both replacement starters, Patrick Mekari and Sam Mustipher, can claim 30-plus starts and more than 2,000 snaps in the NFL.

Other Good Matchups: Najee Harris (at LV), Kyren Williams (at CIN)

Wide Receivers 👍

Christian Kirk (vs. HOU) — 52% started

Start Over — Gabe Davis (vs. BUF), Nico Collins (at JAX)

I listed Kirk as a 'downgrade' last week because his snaps/route shares had been down Week 1 and Week 2 brought a slot matchup with Chiefs corner Trent McDuffie. It wasn't necessarily McDuffie's fault, but Kirk ended up dominating the Jacksonville targets and receiving production while getting a bunch more of the snaps in two-wide formations.

The increased playing time may have just been a product of Zay Jones' minor knee injury, but it's a situation that lingers into this week with Jones absent from practice Wednesday. Kirk still gets most of the slot snaps in three-wide sets when he's also playing in two-wide formations, which is especially good news this week against a Texans defense that's expected to replace experienced slot corner Tavierre Thomas (broken hand) with Grayland Arnold, a 26-year-old who has 105 career snaps on defense and 316 on special teams.

Adam Thielen — 10% started

Start Over — Skyy Moore (vs. CHI), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. CAR), Treylon Burks (at CLE)

Thielen has played around two-third of his snaps in the slot, which means he'll mostly avoid Seattle's Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon while instead lining up across from Coby Bryant inside. The Seahawks look pretty good on paper at linebacker and safety, but they've nonetheless struggled to cover the middle of the field this year, giving up big receiving lines to Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta (plus perimeter WR Josh Reynolds, who did most of his damage over the middle of the field or on in-breaking routes).

I'd also argue the possibility of an Andy Dalton start adds a bit of value, though Thielen was the one guy to put up decent numbers (7-54-1) with Bryce Young (ankle) in Monday's loss to New Orleans. The targets might stick even if touchdowns are unlikely to be a regular thing in what's arguably looked like the NFL's worst offense so far.

Other Good Matchups: Deebo Samuel (vs. NYG), Keenan Allen (at MIN), Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison & K.J. Osborn (vs. LAC), Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman (vs. IND)

Tight Ends 👍

David Njoku (vs. TEN) — 51% started

Start Over — Pat Freiermuth (at LV), Hunter Henry (at NYJ)

Throughout his career, Njoku has consistently been above-average to good when it comes to targets and receiving yards per route. And now he's running more routes than ever — 62 through two games, 80 percent team share — but isn't getting many targets (seven). Patience will be rewarded, and possibly in a big way this week with the Browns facing a pass-funnel defense after losing star running back Nick Chubb (knee) for the season. The Titans are getting healthier in the secondary and have played decent defense overall, but that was also true last year when they gave up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends (on the second most targets) because opponents found passing easier than running on Tennessee's beastly D-line.

Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (at DET), Dalton Kincaid (at WAS)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Justin Fields (at KC) — 65% started

Start Instead — Justin Herbert (vs. MIN), Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. DEN)

Fields always offers the upside for a distance score or multiple rushing TDs, so the trick becomes averaging out the sky-high ceiling with what might happen if he doesn't score a lot of points on the ground. The past two weeks against Green Bay and Tampa were subpar for fantasy and brutal for Bears fans, with not much chance of things getting better in the immediate future as the team prepares for a Week 3 road game against the defending champs.

Fields may blame his coaches for the decreased rushing production this year, but at least some of it is simply inevitable regression after his 2022 stats were largely a product of scrambles rather than designed runs. Lamar Jackson (and Taysom Hill) had more yards on designed run plays last year, per PFF, while Fields relied on scrambles for 63 percent of his yardage (721 of 1,143).

He might be able to reliably scramble for around 500 yards per year, but a repeat of last season's per-game production almost certainly requires more designed runs for the QB — something that doesn't seem to interest the coaching staff. Even if LBs Nick Bolton (ankle) and Willie Gay (quad) are out for the Chiefs this week — no guarantee — Bears RBs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson might benefit more than Fields from vulnerability to the run. Optimism evidently is in short supply, as only the Cardinals, Jets and Giants have Week 3 implied totals below Chicago's 17.5.

Other Tough Matchups: Daniel Jones (at SF), Sam Howell (vs. BUF), Mac Jones (at NYJ), Ryan Tannehill (at CLE)

Running Backs 👎

James Conner (vs. DAL) — 80% started

Start Instead — Raheem Mostert (vs. DEN), Kyren Williams (at CIN), James Cook (at WAS)

Conner's workloads dating back to last season make him tough to bench, especially coming off a big game, but it's worth considering this week if you have the luxury of a deep RB group. Dallas has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to RBs despite facing Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall the first two weeks, with stout defense and extreme negative game script conspiring against both star RBs. Conner faces the same challenge this week as a double-digit underdog against one of the two or three best defenses in the league.

Breece Hall — 53% started

Start Instead — Jerome Ford (vs. TEN), Rachaad White (vs. PHI), Zack Moss (at BAL)

Hall and Dalvin Cook face the unpleasant challenge of trying to run on a Bill Belichick defense that doesn't face any serious threat from the opposing QB. Last year that worked out to 20 total points and a pair of losses in two meetings, with Jets RBs taking 33 carries for 82 yards (2.5 YPC). These running backs are much better than those ones, but it might not matter against a stout and healthy New England front seven that's keyed on stopping the run.

Other Tough Matchups: Jerome Ford (vs. TEN), Rachaad White (vs. PHI), Dalvin Cook (vs. NE), AJ Dillon (vs. NO), Matt Breida (at SF)

Wide Receivers 👎

Marquise Brown (vs. DAL) — 21% started

Start Instead — Tutu Atwell (at CIN), Jahan Dotson (vs. BUF), Courtland Sutton (at MIA)

Brown has taken only 21 percent of his snaps in the slot and thus figures to spend most of Sunday doing battle on the perimeter with CBs Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore. Those two would have the advantage over Brown even if he had good quarterback play, and with Joshua Dobbs under center you're basically just hoping for one long gain to save Brown's fantasy day.

Other Tough Matchups: Garrett Wilson (vs. NE), DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster & Kendrick Bourne (vs. NYJ), Treylon Burks (vs. CLE)

Tight Ends 👎

Hunter Henry (at NYJ) — 38% started

Start Instead — Sam LaPorta (vs. ATL), Tyler Higbee (at CIN)

Henry's game log through two weeks is highly promising, but a look under the hood shows first-rate efficiency that's unlikely to continue while his target volume has been propped up by a huge number of team pass attempts (also unlikely to continue). This Patriots-Jets game has the lowest over/under (36.5) of the week and features two teams that likely want to run a lot, which means if Henry simply matches his current target share (13.5 percent) he'll probably see around four passes instead of six or seven. He also happens to be facing a good secondary this week, in addition to his odds of negative game script and elevated pass volume being much lower (compared to matchups with the Eagles and Dolphins).