This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The safer plays from the Week 9 Tickets were successful, as Allen Robinson cleared 71.5 yards (he had 81) and the Titans covered the 5.5-point spread in a 24-17 victory, giving us a solid +229 hit. We also hit on our +175 bet of Brandin Cooks over 57.5 yards (he had 83) and a Texans win, giving us a nice boost after some struggles in the prior weeks.
We came up short on our longer-shots, with Tyler Lockett failing to reach 78.5 yards against the Bills (he had 40), which was disappointing because Stefon Diggs went over 77.5 (he had 118) and John Brown comically beat his receiving yards prop of 37.5 by finishing with 99; the three would have given us a solid +588 win. Our even-longer-shot was close, but the Chargers failed to win, as Justin Herbert went over 266.5 passing yards, finishing with 326, Keenan Allen had over 79.5 receiving yards, ending up with 103, and Mike Williams went over 45.5 (with 81), but a 31-26 loss meant the Chargers -1.5 (a unanimous pick in Staff Picks) ruined out +808 payday.
Let's jump into the Week 10 tickets to see if we can hit one of these fun ones.
Tampa Bay to win, Leonard Fournette over 40.5 rushing yards and Mike Davis over 35.5 receiving yards (+354)
The Buccaneers come in off an embarrassing 38-3 loss to the Saints last Sunday night, but they are 5.5-point favorites against a Panthers defense that's allowed the 10th-highest yards per carry average in the league this season. Fournette only had one carry last week, but that was surely the result of being down two touchdowns in the first quarter. He will have to contend with Ronald Jones taking carries, but Fournette has been the primary runner over the last few weeks and likely to get the early work this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are elite against the run, allowing a league-low 2.95 yards per carry, but they've also given up the second-most running back receptions and sixth-most receiving yards, which plays nicely into Davis' skill set, especially after he had eight catches for 74 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 2, which happened to be the game when Christian McCaffrey, who is out Sunday, suffered the ankle injury that ultimately held him out until last week.
Aaron Jones over 69.5 rushing yards, Aaron Jones anytime touchdown and Packers win (+151)
Green Bay is expected to dominate this game, as they are 13.5-point home favorites against a Jaguars team that has allowed the seventh-most rushing touchdowns to running backs. They've actually been really good against the run in the past two games, holding the Chargers' running backs to just 47 rushing yards and the Texans' to 57, but Jones is on another level than the running backs in Los Angeles and Houston. Jones has been pretty up and down this season, breaking 69.5 rushing yards only twice, though he had exactly 69 in one game. Given the heavy workload he could see as a big favorite, Jones could get there because of a high volume of attempts, though he also has the speed to break a long run and hit out over and the touchdown on a single play.
Duke Johnson over 57.5 rushing yards and Jarvis Landry over 52.5 receiving yards (+250)
Wind is expected to be a factor in this one, so if you're weary about that then it's probably best to move right along. There are no available yardage props involving Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, but I was definitely interested in their rushing-yard projection because the wind could force a lot of rushing attempts in this game. Johnson is expected to be a three-down workhorse because David Johnson has been ruled out with a concussion, and the hope is that he gets the kind of workload Josh Jacobs got in another windy game in Cleveland when he rushed 31 times for 129 yards in Week 8. Meanwhile, Landry saw 11 targets in that game against the Raiders (that was the Browns last game because they were off in Week 9), and while he only caught four for 52 yards, that would get us quite close to our prop line for this week. Landry has only gone over 52.5 twice this season, though he is now the top guy on the depth chart due to Odell Beckham's injury, which should mean his high number of targets continues. If the wind looks like it won't be as much of a factor as we think, adding Brandin Cooks over 51.5 receiving yards brings this one to a tasty +607.
Jared Goff over 289.5 passing yards, Cooper Kupp over 70.5 receiving yards, Robert Woods over 62.5 receiving yards (+345)
Everyone has been picking on the Seahawks secondary this season, so why shouldn't we? No team has allowed more receiving yards to wide receivers than the Seahawks, who have had only one game allowing fewer than 200. Naturally, no team has allowed more passing yards to quarterbacks, as they've only held one (Kirk Cousins) to fewer than 315, and five times they've given up at least 360. Goff's passing yards have been pretty inconsistent this season, breaking 289.5 three times in eight starts, but this is purely a play against the Seahawks defense in a game with a solid 54.5-point total. And speaking of points, if you want to add a Robert Woods touchdown to the bet since he's found the end zone four times in the past four games, the odds push to +792.
