This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 7 Tickets were a bit of a mess, and it might finally be time to stop thinking the Cowboys are even halfway decent and that Ezekiel Elliott is good enough to produce even if they lose. As a result, the Elliott over 81.5 rushing yards and anytime touchdown (+157) looks laughable after he rushed for 45 yards in a 25-3 loss to Football Team. We also had some tough touchdown luck on James Conner, who had one rushing touchdown called back and he dropped an end zone target, ruining his over 66.5 rushing yards (he had 82) and an anytime touchdown (+194) bet. We also seemed headed to hit on the Kenny Golladay over 80.5 receiving yards (he had 114), Julio Jones over 80.5 receiving yards (he had 97) and Calvin Ridley over 78.5 receiving yards at +605, but Ridley came up short with only 69, scoring a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day but not our bet.
However, we had a solid same-game parlay of Joe Burrow over 11.5 rushing yards (he had 34) and a Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+201), so it wasn't a total loss.
One of the tools I'll be using this week is our new player prop vs. projections page, which shows specific props like yards or receptions and compares it to RotoWire's projection for that player. I don't think it's viable to just blindly bet the differences, but it's a helpful tool to see where we match up against the books. Given that RotoWire is primarily a fantasy sports company that does player projections, the player prop angles are easier to decipher using some of our tools, which is why we'll generally stick with those for these articles. If you're looking for specific game picks, check out our weekly Staff Picks and Chris Liss' Beating the Book columns.
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown, Joe Burrow over 14.5 rushing yards and Titans moneyline (+263)
Henry's rushing prop of 107.5 is a pretty high number, and decently higher than the 93.4 we have him projected for, but instead of taking the under and being scared the entire game, lets bank on him scoring a touchdown (he's -290 for that) and for Burrow to eclipse his rushing yards prop again with starting running back Joe Mixon out. Burrow has broken 14.5 rushing yards in three of seven games, and while the Titans haven't given up many rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, only Drew Lock (Week 1), Kirk Cousins (Week 3) and Ben Roethlisberger (Week 7) have failed to reach 15 yards, and Cousins was only one yard short. It's not that Burrow is a running quarterback, but he's mobile enough to get there like Gardner Minshew (19 rushing yards in Week 2), Josh Allen (18 in Week 5) and Deshaun Watson (26 in Week 6) did. And, the -320 moneyline on the Titans gets added in given they're solid favorites, though if you think they cover the 7.0-point spread then the bet moves to +478. I also wouldn't call you crazy for adding in Burrow throwing for more than 281.5 yards, a total he's beaten in five of his last six games, which brings that ridiculous parlay to +586, unless you replace that rushing yards part with the passing, then it's +226.
Jamaal Williams anytime touchdown, Davante Adams anytime touchdown and Packers -6.0 (+399)
High winds in Green Bay are expected Sunday, which has helped push the total down from 57.5 to 49.5. However, that's still a decent number of points, and it probably affects Aaron Rodgers' passing more than Williams' rushing ability or Adams' viability in the red zone. The Packers were 9.0-point favorites according to Liss earlier this week, and four of the five guys in Staff Picks took them -6.5. Meanwhile, Williams (-125) and Adams (-145) have the best anytime touchdown odds in the game, and since we can't combine anything with the over 65.5 rushing yards for Williams, we'll have to rely on them getting into the end zone in a Packers romp.
Boston Scott over 57.5 rushing yards, Boston Scott anytime touchdown and Eagles moneyline (+233)
The Eagles opened as 3.0-point favorites, but a plethora of injuries for the Cowboys has pushed it all the way up to 11.5, four points higher than when Staff Picks was published this week when all but one of the guys picked the Eagles. Instead of the Eagles needing to cover that spread, we'll take the basic moneyline with the expectation that Scott has a solid game starting in place of the injured Miles Sanders. Scott had a significant share of the backfield work last week, and that's expected to continue against Dallas, though this time it's in a game he should be used plenty in order to protect their lead and milk the clock. The matchup is certainly good for that, as the Cowboys have allowed 5.0 yards per carry this season, the fourth-most in the league, and no one has had more rushing attempts against them and only one team has allowed more rushing yards. And if you're still interested in Eagles -7.5, using that in the bet instead of the moneyline moves it to +298.
Jimmy Garoppolo over 260.5 passing yards, George Kittle over 69.5 receiving yards and Kendrick Bourne over 40.5 receiving yards (+343)
This is purely a play against the Seahawks defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this season, and that's only because the one team ahead of the has played two more games (Falcons at 2,590 versus the Seahawks 2,243). Only one quarterback has thrown for fewer than 315 yards against them (Kirk Cousins had 249 in Week 5), and while the 49ers usually prefer to attack their opponents on the ground, the absence of Raheem Mostert (ankle) and the porous Seattle defense should have them focusing more on the passing game. Garoppolo has eclipsed 260 in each of his last two games, and that was against the team that allowed the second-fewest (Patriots in six games) and 15th-fewest (Rams in seven) passing yards this season. Kittle is his primary weapon, though Brandon Aiyuk is also a very important part, but unfortunately there's no prop available for him yet. However, Bourne is expected to be the No. 2 wide receiver, and against this defense, he could break that 40-yard mark on a single play. The bet is obviously correlated together, but the Seattle defense should give us confidence on it all coming together.
