This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Predictions
The NFL opens the Divisional playoffs Saturday afternoon with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs. Let's try to open the betting week off on the right foot with the following wagers to consider.
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Jacksonville Jaguars 
vs. Kansas City Chiefs 
Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, and Total
Jaguars: Spread +8.5 (-105), Moneyline +360
Chiefs: Spread -2.5 (-115), Moneyline -450
Game Total: 53.5 points
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Divisional Playoff Round Football Picks: Jaguars vs. Chiefs Best Bets and Player Props
Under 53 points (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1.5 units
These two teams met in Week 9, with the Chiefs winning at home 27-17 which was just before the Jaguars started to go on their second-half run. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, while the Jaguars had to pull off a miracle comeback win last week against the Chargers 31-30. There is a lot going against the Jaguars this week and to see them be able to get back up for this game is a tall task.
The Chiefs have won 15 out of 16 straight up at home, while the Jaguars have won six in a row overall. The Chiefs have gone under in 6 out of their last 8 at home. The Chiefs have a huge edge in this game with their best-ranked passing offense against the Jaguars' 28th-ranked passing defense.
In order for this game to hit the over, the Chiefs would have to hit at least 38 or the Jaguars would have to be in the mid-20s. Neither one seems plausible based on how I like the game script to play out.
If this ends up being a blowout on the Chiefs' side, it could be 31-17, 31-20 etc and still come in under the total. But I think this game will be very close to their earlier regular season matchup, with the Chiefs winning 29-17.
Marvin Jones over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 unit
When looking at the Player Props vs. Projections page for this game, Marvin Jones stood out as one of the best values. His projected receiving yards are 38.8 versus the 28.5 prop (26.6% value). Jones has hit this number in 10 out of 17 games (59%), but three in a row (two of which were at 29 yards).
Jones averaged 11.5 yards per reception, so he would need at least three in this game to go OVER.
While I do like the under on the scoring total in the game, I can see the Jaguars being down early and having to rely on Trevor Lawrence's arm more which will help in Jones going over.
Kadarius Toney under 31.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 unit
Going back to the Props page, this one looks very strong as Toney has barely been involved in the passing game for the Chiefs. His RW projection is 24.0 yards vs. 31.5 prop for a +31% value.
A lot of this number is based off the last game against the Jaguars in which he had four receptions for 57 yards. There is concern about Mecole Hardman being out and that those targets could end up with Toney, but they will probably be split between Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scandling.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Best Bets Recap
Under 53 points (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1.5 units
Marvin Jones over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 unit
Kadarius Toney under 31.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 unit
