King for a Day: Week 17 Values

King for a Day: Week 17 Values

This article is part of our King for a Day series.

DraftKings is hosting the final round of championships in Week 17, highlighted by the $2M Touchdown ($200 entry), $500K Hail Mary ($12 entry), $400K Gridiron ($27 entry) and $250K Play-Action ($2 entry). There are also satellites available for the final Millionaire Maker, which will take place during the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

In any case, Week 17 is a bit different than the 16 preceding weeks, with some teams already locked into a specific playoff spot. The Patriots and Colts are technically the only such teams, but the Cowboys are essentially in the same boat, as their result against the Redskins only matters in the event that the Lions/Packers, Seahawks or Cardinals tie.

It's been reported through a bunch of Dallas (and national) media outlets that the Cowboys will get the No. 2 seed if they win while both the Seahawks and Cardinals lose. Actually, the Cowboys get the No. 2 seed if both the 'Hawks and Cards lose, even if Dallas also loses. Such is life with the tiebreakers, and while the Cowboys say they'll play their starters, it would be incredibly unwise to actually keep Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant in for the entire game.

I'm not using key Cowboys, Patriots or Colts, but I'll be keeping a close eye on any news, as guys like Tim Wright ($3000), Brandon Bolden ($3000), Brian Tyms ($3000), Hakeem Nicks ($4000) and Terrance Williams ($3500) may end up as reasonable options.

Also, I'd be shocked if Darrelle Revis plays a full game, and the same goes for a bunch of New England's other key defenders. I don't actually trust the Colts or Cowboys to be smart, but it's at least worth nothing that the Titans and Redskins may get to face some second-stringers.

Here are my favorite Sunday and Monday players for Week 16 on DraftKings…

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton, CAR (at ATL), $7500 – Newton is only two weeks removed from suffering a pair of transverse process fractures in his back during a car crash, but the injury didn't seem to affect him in Week 16 against the Browns, as he ran for 63 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. With the entire season coming down to one game against a bad defense, it's safe to assume that Newton won't hesitate to run. Given his consistently mediocre fantasy output through the air, it really comes down to how much damage Newton can do on the ground.

Eli Manning, NYG (vs. PHI), $7100 – Coming off a surprisingly huge showing against the solid Rams defense, Manning should be in for another big game against a Philly team that's allowing the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks. Of course, the real appeal here is that you get an affordable signal-caller who is tied to stud rookie Odell Beckham. Just keep in mind that the Manning-Beckham stack will likely be a hugely popular option for Week 17. You'll still need to nail the rest of your lineup to come out with a nice payday in a GPP.

Other options:Aaron Rodgers, GB (vs. DET), $8600; Peyton Manning, DEN (vs. OAK), $8600; Drew Brees, NO (at TB), $8400; Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. CAR), $7700; Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. STL), $7500; Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (vs. CHI), $5900; Josh McCown, TB (vs. NO), $5200

Notes: There are probably 15 quarterbacks I could make an argument for this week, so narrowing it down was quite difficult. Rodgers is one of my favorites, as he's been unstoppable in Green Bay this season, and won't be an overly popular choice against the excellent Detroit defense. Manning figures to bounce back for a big finish against a weak opponent, but C.J. Anderson has me a bit worried about the volume and touchdowns. Brees finishes the year with a favorable matchup in excellent weather, and the Saints' disappointing finish will likely scare many away. Ryan is a strong bet to make it five straight games with 20 or more DraftKings points. Wilson put up 43.12 DK points in the first meeting with St. Louis, and he has topped 35 points on three occasions this season. Bridgewater has come on strong late in the season, with an excellent chance to keep the momentum going against an incompetent Chicago defense. McCown has been brutal this season, but he's no worse than the New Orleans defense, and both of his receivers carry very reasonable price tags.

Running Backs

C.J. Anderson, DEN (vs. OAK), $7000 – Anderson may approach (or top) 30 percent usage for a second straight week, with the Broncos again facing a vulnerable opponent in a crucial game. I still wouldn't recommend fading Anderson, as his floor is right up there with that of Le'Veon Bell and Arian Foster, with only Bell possessing a higher ceiling at the position. The Raiders rank 30th in allowing DraftKings points to running backs, and Anderson has topped 19 points in six of his last seven games. He's been logging about 90 percent of the offensive snaps, rarely ceding work on third down or at the goal line.

Matt Asiata, MIN (vs. CHI), $5000 – Asiata hasn't reached 80 rushing yards in a game this season, but between the goal-line work and his activity as a receiver, he has still managed four showings of 21 or more DraftKings points. Facing a soft Chicago defense in a cold-weather game, Asiata is an excellent bet to record 15+ touches and a score. He may even get that elusive 80-yard showing, one painfully slow yard at a time.

Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (vs. CIN), $9500; Arian Foster, HOU (vs. JAX), $7900; Jamaal Charles, KC (vs. SD), $7600; LeSean McCoy, PHI (at NYG), $6700; Jeremy Hill, CIN (at PIT), $6000; Jonathan Stewart, CAR (at ATL), $5700 Alfred Morris, WAS (at DAL), $4600; Devonta Freeman/Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL (vs. CAR), $3600

Notes: Bell surprisingly had a poor game against the Chiefs in Week 16, but the poor showing will likely throw people off his scent, heading into a matchup with the awful Cincinnati front seven. Foster will try to put the Texans on his back, and while he may find it difficult to churn out more than four yards per carry, he'll likely compensate with volume. Charles carries a reduced price tag amidst a disappointing finish, and he should close things out with a bang against a San Diego run defense that's been awful in recent weeks. I don't like McCoy as much as in past weeks, but he's still worth a look against a team that surrenders 4.9 yards per carry. Hill has plenty of upside against the shaky Pittsburgh defense, but as a non-contributor in the passing game, he's a very risky option in a road matchup with a superior (in my opinion) opponent. Even with DeAngelo Williams expected to return, Stewart should dominate the touches against a weak Atlanta defense. Morris comes cheap for a favorable matchup, and he may be facing second-stringers by halftime. Neither can be trusted, but both Freeman and Rodgers become interesting, if Steven Jackson (quad) can't play.

Wide Receivers

Randall Cobb, GB (vs. DET), $7300 – Nickel corner Cassius Vaughn is the weak link in Detroit's secondary, which bodes well for the Green Bay receiver who makes a living out of the slot. I'm generally quite high on the Packers offense this week, as it's been nearly unstoppable at home, while the Lions defense is very good but a bit overrated. A flukish early-season string of touchdowns has been followed by an equally unsustainable drought, but Cobb is finally getting the targets he deserves, having hit double-digits in four of the past six weeks. Pairing him with Rodgers is the obvious play, and it's far more affordable than in previous weeks.

Mike Evans, TB (vs. NO), $6100 – Last week, I made an argument for Vincent Jackson ($5500) over Evans, based on the unusual distribution of touchdowns between the two wideouts. I stand by that argument and still love Jackson this week, but with the price gap much smaller, Evans is the ever-so-slightly superior option. I also think it makes sense for the Bucs to focus on Evans, who is easily the team's most exciting offensive building block. Right or wrong, a big finish for the rookie will make the team feel somewhat better about its future, so I won't be surprised if Evans gets double-digit targets. And, of course, the biggest factor here is the opponent, as the New Orleans defense is pitiful beyond words.

Andre Holmes, OAK (at DEN), $3,600 – I never expected to recommend Holmes in consecutive weeks, and while he posted a mildly disappointing 3-73-0 receiving line against the Bills, his recent usage has been encouraging. He only saw six targets last week, but he easily played the most snaps of any Oakland wideout, and the team probably won't be nursing a lead during Sunday's game against the Broncos. Not to be mistaken for a superstar, Holmes is merely the No. 1 wide receiver for a team that will likely attempt 40-plus passes. I'm thinking he can hit triple-digit receiving yards for the second time this season, with most of the damage likely coming in garbage time. Adding to the appeal, Holmes was barely rostered in GPPs last week, and he won't be a popular choice for the finale.

Other options:Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (vs. PHI), $9600; Julio Jones, ATL (vs. CAR), $8100; Alshon Jeffery, CHI (at MIN), $7500; Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (vs. OAK), $7000; Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (at ATL), $6200; DeSean Jackson, WAS (at DAL), $5800; Mike Wallace, MIA (vs. NYJ), $5600; Sammy Watkins, BUF (at NE), $5400; Charles Johnson, MIN (vs. CHI) $4600; Paul Richardson, SEA (vs. STL), $3300

Notes: Averaging nearly 29 DraftKings points over his last nine games, Beckham should actually be worth the price in a very favorable matchup. Jones was somewhat limited in terms of snaps last week, but he still figures to see plenty of targets against a shaky Carolina secondary. Jeffery is a decent bet to lead the NFL in Week 17 targets, and whatever you might think of Jay Cutler, No. 6 is much better than Jimmy Clausen for his receivers' fantasy purposes. Sanders hasn't been getting many targets in recent weeks, but the Denver offense should explode come Sunday, making everyone a viable option. Benjamin is still getting a ton of looks, and he went for 9-109-1 in the first meeting with Atlanta. Jackson is already five yards behind Brandon Carr, though it's anyone's guess whether RG3 will complete the throw. Wallace gets to face the weak Jets secondary, and the Dolphins have an unusual affinity for targeting their undersized speedster in the red zone. Watkins probably won't have to deal with Revis for more than a few drives. Johnson, who is quietly still the Vikings' No. 1 wide receiver, gets to face an awful Chicago defense to close out the season. Richardson is expected to replace Jermaine Kearse (hamstring), which may prove to be an immediate upgrade for the Seattle offense.

Tight End

Antonio Gates, SD (at KC), $5900 – While this may feel a bit reactionary, I don't think Gates' huge Week 16 performance was a fluke, as Keenan Allen's targets need to go somewhere. Eddie Royal ($5500) is the other obvious beneficiary, but there are plenty of strong values at wide receiver, and few to speak of at tight end. Though Gates is my favorite, I really don't see many good options, so I may just stick to the bargain bin with the likes of Delanie Walker ($4400), Mychal Rivera ($3300) and Jermaine Gresham ($3200). Not much of an advertisement, I know.

Other options:Greg Olsen, CAR (at ATL), $5600

Notes: Olsen is the other tight end worth paying up for, as he quietly has a shot to reach 90 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards.

Team D/ST

Minnesota Vikings vs. CHI, $2900 – It's going to be cold, and the Bears probably won't want to be there, though it would at least seem that Cutler has plenty to play for. More than anything, there are very few team defense options below $3000, and it isn't hard to imagine the Vikings snagging a pick-six or two. If you're willing to pay more, the Texans, Ravens, Broncos and Seahawks all appear to be fairly safe options.

Other options:Seattle Seahawks (vs. STL), $3600; Denver Broncos (vs. OAK), $3500; Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE), $3300; Houston Texans, (vs. JAX), $3200; San Francisco 49ers, (vs. AZ), $3200; Washington Redskins, (vs. DAL), $2300

Notes: The Seattle defense is once again the league's best, and it isn't even all that close. The Broncos gave up one big carry to Jeremy Hill last week, but they were otherwise done in by the play of their own quarterback. The Ravens defense also played well in Week 16, only to watch the offense turn in a complete stinker. The Texans offer an excellent combination of matchup and price, coming off a huge showing against the Ravens. The 49ers get to face Ryan Lindley, who may be the NFL's worst quarterback. The Washington secondary is still a disaster, but this unit comes dirt-cheap, and it may be facing backups by halftime.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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