Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chiefs vs. Ravens

The year's most anticipated regular season game is here, as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs travel to Baltimore to take on a Ravens team that finished 2019 with the best overall record. Both teams come in 2-0, though the Ravens have been much more dominant, outscoring their two opponents (Browns and Texans) 71-22, while the Chiefs have a 57-40 points advantage against theirs (Texans and Chargers). 

The Ravens opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but the line has moved to -3.5 with a game total of 54.5 on both FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks. That total is unsurprising given the firepower of the offenses, and the trickiest part of the fantasy slate is that you won't be able to get nearly as many elite players as you want because pretty much everyone is expensive. You'll really have to take a stand on how you think the game will go, which could spread around any normal chalk in cash games and GPPs.

QUARTERBACKS

This game features the last two NFL MVPs in Lamar Jackson ($13,000 DK, $16,500 FD) and Patrick Mahomes ($12,000 DK, $16,000 FD), who are obviously the two-most expensive players on both sites. Given their extremely high salaries and the high salaries of the guys they are passing the ball to, rostering both is extremely difficult, especially if one of them is a captain on DraftKings because of the salary multiplier, which makes Jackson $19,500 and Mahomes $18,000. In fact, captaining Jackson and flexing Mahomes on DraftKings leaves only $18,500 in total salary for the remaining four flex spots, or an average of $4,625 per player. For those who love kickers and defenses, you can get both from each team if you go the double quarterback route, but it's pretty much all you can do. Or if you want some savings, captaining Mahomes and flexing Jackson leaves an average of $4,750, which...doesn't really move the needle.

That being said, they are still likely to be two of the most popular players on the slate, as even if you don't use them in the captain spot on DraftKings, they'll surely be popular in the flex. Given that the biggest tournaments have 267,647 (DraftKings) and 264,550 (FanDuel) entries (both max at 150, with DraftKings costing $10 per and FanDuel $9), there will certainly be people who try to get contrarian by fading both Jackson and Mahomes, which feels really risky but also likely the level of risk you'll have to take on if you want to beat 267,464 people on DraftKings and/or 264,549 on FanDuel.

Given how each have played this season, and the fact that Jackson has a significant rushing floor that Mahomes doesn't, the Baltimore signal caller is likely to be more popular. That doesn't mean Mahomes will be on a low percentage of teams, but there's a slight bit of leverage against Jackson simply playing as if the Kansas City air attack will be able to exploit the...complete lack of soft spots in the Ravens' defense. Mahomes is certainly capable of putting up big scores against anyone, but he faces arguably his toughest task Monday night.

PASS CATCHERS

Given how much attention will be put on Jackson and Mahomes, it will be vital to land on the right receiver combinations to take down GPPs. Both teams can score through the air, with Mahomes obviously much more of a prolific yardage accumulator because of the way the Chiefs play, but even Jackson is able to make his receivers very valuable. Interestingly, the two best pass catchers in the game are the tight ends, which isn't something we get very often. Traditionally priced below the top wide receivers and running backs, Travis Kelce ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) and Mark Andrews ($8,000 DK, $12,000 FD) buck that trend, as Kelce is the most expensive non-quarterback on DraftKings while being the fourth-most expensive player on FanDuel. Andrews actually looks like a bit of a bargain as the fourth-highest non-QB on DraftKings and FanDuel, though it's worth noting that he's the most expensive Raven other than Jackson.

Kelce leads Kansas City in targets (20) and receptions (15) while co-leading them in receiving touchdowns (two), red-zone targets (three) and targets inside the 10-yard line (three). Only wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) has more receiving yards (145 to 140) and air yards (176 to 117) for the Chiefs, which is why he's more expensive on FanDuel and one spot behind on DraftKings. Kelce and Hill are certainly the first two names you look for when trying to pair someone up with Mahomes, but their prices are high enough where you'll absolutely need one of them to be who goes off because of the salary sacrifices you have to make elsewhere. Given how expensive the quarterbacks are, it shouldn't be surprising when we see plenty of lineups with either Kelce or Hill as a captain on DraftKings and then Mahomes in the flex, as the little bit of salary help could go a long way. 

Then again, the Chiefs have other receivers who are capable of putting up big games, and fading Kelce and/or Hill makes it easier to get those guys in. Sammy Watkins ($5,000 DK, $8,500 FD) is officially questionable to play, though he practiced in full Sunday after recovering from a concussion. He was solid in Week 1 against Houston, catching seven of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, including three targets inside the 10-yard line, and the fact that he costs half of Kelce makes the salary work a little better. Fantasy players could gravitate toward Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK, $7,500 FD) because of the slight cost savings, but it's important to note that his increase in playing time last week came after Watkins left because of that head injury, and if Watkins is a full go then Hardman may be hard pressed to get many snaps. The positive for Hardman is that he can score a touchdown any time he touches the ball, so he's still likely to be more popular than other players despite three catches on four targets for 36 yards in the past two games. Regular no. 3 wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ($3,000 DK, $7,000 FD) looks like a solid option as well, at least for those who weren't burned in Week 1 when he dropped two balls in the end zone. Going all-out on the Chiefs' air attack without Kelce and Hill is certainly doable, and it's entirely in the range of outcomes that Watkins, Hardman and Robinson could have good-enough games for rosters that captain/MVP Mahomes.

We have a few longer-shot options as well, though none of them have even been targeted this season, so anyone hoping for anything out of Marcus Kemp ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Byron Pringle ($600 DK, $5,000 FD), Nick Keizer ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Ricky Seals-Jones ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Anthony Sherman ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) or Deon Yelder ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) better be making a ton of lineups to get them in, though it's also worth noting not all of them will be active.

As noted earlier, Andrews is the most expensive Baltimore player other than Jackson, though he comes in third on the team in receptions and trailing Marquise Brown ($8,400 DK, $10,500 FD) in targets (12 to nine), receiving yards (143 to 87), receptions (10 to seven), air yards (161 to 100) and aDOT (13.4 to 11.1). From a volume perspective it certainly makes Brown look more attractive, especially because he's cheaper than Andrews on both sites, though we can't ignore that Andrews leads the team in red-zone targets (five), targets inside the 10-yard line (three) and targets inside the five (one). In fact, only Green Bay's Aaron Jones has more red-zone targets in the league, and he's played three games already. Brown has zero red-zone targets, which immediately makes you think "well, it's only Week 3," but we also see that four Ravens other than Andrews have been targeted inside the 20, so it's not like Jackson is only looking to his star tight end. It's simply that Brown is a big-play threat, and he has the volume to make him a reliable option. He isn't likely to be a big captain/MVP choice, but Brown certainly has the upside to make that pay off.

Brown isn't the only pivot away from Andrews if you wanted to fade the tight end, with Miles Boykin ($3,400 DK, $7,000 FD) and Willie Snead ($4,400 DK, $8,000 FD) viable options, as Boykin is equal with Andrews on nine targets, and he's caught one more pass (seven to six). Meanwhile, Snead's 93 receiving yards are more than all but Brown, and he caught a touchdown pass in Week 1, making him the only pass catcher (i.e. non-running back) to score a receiving touchdown this season other than Andrews. The difficulty with Boykin and Snead is that they really aren't big-play threats, as evidenced by their respective 6.2 and 9.2 aDOTs. Brown is the guy for those plays, but if we're looking for a few catches and maybe a touchdown, Boykin and Snead are certainly in the discussion. We also have backup tight end Nick Boyle ($800 DK, $5,000 FD), who is always around and could catch a pass in the end zone, but he's almost worthless without the score. Then again, his +425 odds to score anytime (DraftKings Sportsbook) are the same as Snead, though they trail Boykin (+350) and obviously Andrews (+125) and Brown (+140).

RUNNING BACKS

The backfield situations couldn't be much different, as the Chiefs have been relying heavily on Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD), who has accounted for 35 of the team's 47 rushing attempts by running backs or fullbacks, as well as 176 of the group's 222 rushing yards. If there's a belief that Mahomes will have difficulty moving the ball through the air, then focusing your lineup on Edwards-Helaire is an option, except that the Ravens are also elite against the run. In terms of rushing the ball, Edwards-Helaire is the guy in the red zone too, accounting for 100 percent of the team's carries inside the 10 and five-yard lines, while Mahomes is the only Chief to get a rushing attempt inside the 20 other than Edwards-Helaire. And while he wasn't targeted in Week 1 while rushing 25 times for 138 yards and a touchdown, Edwards-Helaire is a very good pass catcher, as we saw in Week 2 against the Chargers when he caught six of eight targets for 32 yards, partially salvaging his fantasy day because he only rushed for 38 yards on 10 carries. To put his receiving work into perspective, he has the same number of targets and receptions as Robinson, though 16 fewer receiving yards because of his minus-2 air yards.

There were some early season worries that Edwards-Helaire could miss out on some touches, particularly near the goal line, to Darrel Williams ($2,000 DK, $6,500 FD), but it just hasn't happened, as Williams rushed seven times for 23 yards and caught both targets for seven receiving yards in Week 1 before suffering an ankle injury in Week 2 after catching his lone target for 12 yards. Darwin Thompson ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD) picked up the slack in that one, rushing four times for 21 yards and failing to haul in his only target, but again, neither player seems to be getting enough touches to make them truly viable options as long as Edwards-Helaire is healthy. We also can't 100 percent rule out fullback Anthony Sherman ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), but he's almost exclusively an MME consideration.

The Baltimore backfield is really tricky, especially because the best way to attack the Chiefs defense is on the ground. It's bad enough that Jackson accounts for so many of the Ravens' rushing attempts, but we also have to deal with the fact that Mark Ingram ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD), J.K. Dobbins ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) and Gus Edwards ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD) have been sharing the running back opportunities, and fullback Patrick Ricard ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD) actually leads the running backs in snaps (tables below are from our Ravens Team Trends page)!

Picard is an easy one to remove from your potential player pool, at least for non-MME players, but figuring out where to go with Ingram, Edwards and Dobbins seems like a total guessing game. If you want to focus on the goal line, you could look to Dobbins, who scored two short touchdowns in Week 1, but he also comes in with fewer red-zone carries than Ingram (five to two) and they have the same number of carries inside the 10. And just to complicate it even further, Edwards' one carry inside the five-yard line is one more than Ingram.

This is a pretty big summary to finish with zero conclusions, but at least we're clear on how difficult the Ravens' backfield situation is, especially since it's Jackson who is the best rusher and likely to be popular because theoretically you can get two positions (QB and RB) covered with one player. It's certainly a dream scenario for people who make multiple lineups, with Edwards offering significantly more salary cap flexibility.

KICKERS

A game with a ton of points doesn't make you think about the kickers, but we have the two best in the the league in this one. Kansas City's Harrison Butker ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) nailed a 58-yarder last week to beat the Chargers in overtime, and he's gone five-for-five on field-goal attempts and 4-for-5 on extra points in two games. Meanwhile, Justin Tucker ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goals and 8-for-8 on PATs, leading the league (among kickers) in fantasy points through two games.

Tucker is only $200 less than Snead on DraftKings, though he's $1,000 more on FanDuel, but it's that range where you'll have to consider whether you think the potential for another 10-15 point game from Tucker and/or Butker is worth the likelihood that someone like Snead or Boykin or Hardman finishes with six points instead of 26 because they break a long play. Given that situation, both kickers are certainly in play for cash games, and they could be important GPP considerations if you think the stars are the ones who score a majority of the fantasy points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Even though the Ravens defense ($3,800 DK) is elite, the only way they make sense Monday night is if they can force a fumble or interception and score a touchdown, or return a kick for a score. Obviously the same applies to the Chiefs defense ($2,600 DK), who would be a great contrarian play because of how much offense is expected. Defenses need to score touchdowns if they are going to be on GPP-winning teams, and Monday's game doesn't feel like a great time to use them, even at their reduced prices when they're up against guys like Boykin, Williams and Edwards.